Many of you are drafting this weekend. Many of you have also subscribed to the FF4W rankings spreadsheet. If you haven't and want to, it's as easy as going to www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com, clicking on the big blue box, and donating whatever it's worth to you. A short time later, the rankings will magically show up in your inbox.
They're fully customized, current, and contrarian when necessary. Industry rankings are like Walmart; they all basically look the same. FF4W rankings are like a mom-and-pop store; each reflects the owner's personality. In my case, that means giving a damn about adjusting players before the fantasy universe catches on. Because if you're even remotely leaning on rankings--especially in the later rounds, when some managers start to lose focus--they have to be current.
Take Tampa Bay's backfield. Peyton Barber was the 31st best fantasy RB despite earning 254 touches--more than any other RB outside the top 20. In other words, he was deceptively ineffective. This summer he (RB-46 ADP) and Ronald Jones (RB-41) have been battling for the #1 spot. Or that's how it seems, since both are almost universally viewed as top-50 backs.
But the story here is far more complex. Both of their ceilings are low. Barber simply isn't good enough to be a weekly fantasy threat, and Jones' severe weakness in the passing game (and in pass protection) make him a liability in today's NFL.
In general, expert rankings are generous to both guys. As a result, fantasy managers are drafting them around the 8th-10th rounds. Because the rankings are faulty. At an overall ADP of 109, Jones is sandwiched between must-draft TE Austin Hooper and must-draft RB Duke Johnson. Barber (119) is somehow going 2-3 rounds before higher-upside flex talents like Keke Coutee and Tyrell Williams.
Regardless of whether you "believe" in Barber and Jones, the reality is that this backfield is a fantasy quagmire. And adding to the confusion is Dare Ogunbowale. The unheralded former undrafted free agent is pushing for the #3 RB job--in a backfield that's less settled than the fantasy universe believes. His 335 overall ADP and RB-94 ADP suggest he's completely worthless. Which undraftable RBs are ranked better? Elijah McGuire (310/87), Darren Sproles (314/80), Alfred Morris (279/76), D'Onta Foreman (264/72), and Jay Ajayi (253/67). Foreman's out for the season, and Ajayi can't land a contract. Why isn't Ogunbowale ranked better than them? Because he's a less familiar name.
I don't care whether a player's famous or not. I don't care if 100% of experts disagree. No one's drafting Ogunbowale because every ranking out there suggests he's undraftable. It's a unending cycle. "He won't be good because people are saying he won't be good." Maybe he'll bust and fade into oblivion. But at this moment, he's got as good a shot at fantasy relevance as Barber and Jones. And that needs to be factored in draft rooms. It's not, but it should be.
Break out of this cycle. Sign up for the FF4W rankings.
I'll be back tomorrow to try to make sense of the third week of preseason games.
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Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
They're fully customized, current, and contrarian when necessary. Industry rankings are like Walmart; they all basically look the same. FF4W rankings are like a mom-and-pop store; each reflects the owner's personality. In my case, that means giving a damn about adjusting players before the fantasy universe catches on. Because if you're even remotely leaning on rankings--especially in the later rounds, when some managers start to lose focus--they have to be current.
Take Tampa Bay's backfield. Peyton Barber was the 31st best fantasy RB despite earning 254 touches--more than any other RB outside the top 20. In other words, he was deceptively ineffective. This summer he (RB-46 ADP) and Ronald Jones (RB-41) have been battling for the #1 spot. Or that's how it seems, since both are almost universally viewed as top-50 backs.
But the story here is far more complex. Both of their ceilings are low. Barber simply isn't good enough to be a weekly fantasy threat, and Jones' severe weakness in the passing game (and in pass protection) make him a liability in today's NFL.
In general, expert rankings are generous to both guys. As a result, fantasy managers are drafting them around the 8th-10th rounds. Because the rankings are faulty. At an overall ADP of 109, Jones is sandwiched between must-draft TE Austin Hooper and must-draft RB Duke Johnson. Barber (119) is somehow going 2-3 rounds before higher-upside flex talents like Keke Coutee and Tyrell Williams.
Regardless of whether you "believe" in Barber and Jones, the reality is that this backfield is a fantasy quagmire. And adding to the confusion is Dare Ogunbowale. The unheralded former undrafted free agent is pushing for the #3 RB job--in a backfield that's less settled than the fantasy universe believes. His 335 overall ADP and RB-94 ADP suggest he's completely worthless. Which undraftable RBs are ranked better? Elijah McGuire (310/87), Darren Sproles (314/80), Alfred Morris (279/76), D'Onta Foreman (264/72), and Jay Ajayi (253/67). Foreman's out for the season, and Ajayi can't land a contract. Why isn't Ogunbowale ranked better than them? Because he's a less familiar name.
I don't care whether a player's famous or not. I don't care if 100% of experts disagree. No one's drafting Ogunbowale because every ranking out there suggests he's undraftable. It's a unending cycle. "He won't be good because people are saying he won't be good." Maybe he'll bust and fade into oblivion. But at this moment, he's got as good a shot at fantasy relevance as Barber and Jones. And that needs to be factored in draft rooms. It's not, but it should be.
Break out of this cycle. Sign up for the FF4W rankings.
I'll be back tomorrow to try to make sense of the third week of preseason games.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
