Before sharing a few thoughts on last night's preseason games, I live-tweeted a mock draft two nights ago, and then live-tweeted two simultaneous mock drafts last night (picking 1st in one and 14th in the other). For me, mock drafts are pointless if I'm picking the same guys in the early rounds every time. Mix it up. Take a TE in the first and see how it works for you. Go RB-RB and assess which fantasy-startable WRs will be realistically available starting in round 3. Reach a bit for your #1 QB, and in another draft, wait a while and see if, on balance, you're better off taking a high-upside QB2.
The key to drafting is committing to a strategy, and then knowing when to switch gears. In that draft two nights ago, I wanted to see if I could land two undervalued RBs out of the gate, but then realized there was better value to be found at WR. I was also a few picks away from getting Aaron Rodgers later than expected, but then he was taken, so I opted to wait on QB for about eight rounds and loaded up elsewhere.
In all three drafts, one strategy remained the same: stashing handcuff RBs. By the end I'd acquired about five handcuffs--with one (Kalen Ballage) already poised to potentially lead his backfield Week 1. Drafting handcuffs is like mining for gold. If it pays off, it was worth it. And if I hire five miners to dig in five different mines, the odds of striking it rich just got a lot better.
And if you're starting two WRs and a flex, there's almost no reason to draft more than four WRs. I've seen teams with six or seven WRs. Why are people drafting WR4s (around 90-120 ADP) instead of Ballage (121 ADP) or Kareem Hunt (102 ADP)? Don't worry about stashing middling receivers for bye weeks. When the time comes, you'll find a plug-and-play free agent. In the early going, load up on high-upside talent. RBs get hurt all the time. So figure out how to capitalize.
And to reinforce how I don't over-plan, I did one more mock draft last night--another 14-team league. Picking 12th this time, I soon had to abandon landing two undervalued RBs early, opting instead for the value sitting in front of me. My picks, in order, were Kelce, JuJu, Golladay, Mahomes, Lamar Miller, Royce Freeman, Bears DST, Ballage, Ronald Jones, Jaylen Samuels, Will Lutz, DeVante Parker, Jamaal Williams, Chase Edmonds, Dexter Williams, and Preston Williams. (If you've been reading my posts this week, you can pick out the hedges: two Miami WRs and two Green Bay RBs.) This doesn't mean I'm definitely drafting Kelce at #12 in a real draft (though I might). But I learned a lot playing this scenario out. And that's the biggest benefit to mock drafting.
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Some very quick thoughts about Thursday's preseason games.
Miles Sanders rebounded from an uneventful first preseason game, collecting 31 yards on five carries. For the past few weeks on my draft board he's been ranked a little better than his RB-33 ADP.
With Marqise Lee hurt and D.J. Chark not stepping up, the Jags' receiving corps could turn out to be the worst in the AFC--yes, even worse than Buffalo's. If you're relying on Chris Conley, you're in trouble.
I keep moving Mark Ingram down (not to subscribers: I moved him down further after sending you the latest rankings). I simply don't see him carrying the load all year in what is a very talented backfield. Gus Edwards isn't going anywhere, Lamar Jackson will get his touches, and rookie Justice Hill--a guy I've been targeting very late in mocks--has looked good.
And Kyler Murray looked unprepared. My June rundown of the Cardinals devoted five paragraphs to questioning the logic of his insane QB-12 ADP. Now he's edged up to 11. Subscribers know I've been ranking him in the high 20's all summer. Let someone else take the rookie (overall 95 ADP) while you invest in a low-triple-digit ADP option like Ballage, Hunt, Royce Freeman, or Curtis Samuel. Or if you need a QB, for freak's sake, Jared Goff is ranked one spot below Murray. Goff will comfortably outperform Murray, period.
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The key to drafting is committing to a strategy, and then knowing when to switch gears. In that draft two nights ago, I wanted to see if I could land two undervalued RBs out of the gate, but then realized there was better value to be found at WR. I was also a few picks away from getting Aaron Rodgers later than expected, but then he was taken, so I opted to wait on QB for about eight rounds and loaded up elsewhere.
In all three drafts, one strategy remained the same: stashing handcuff RBs. By the end I'd acquired about five handcuffs--with one (Kalen Ballage) already poised to potentially lead his backfield Week 1. Drafting handcuffs is like mining for gold. If it pays off, it was worth it. And if I hire five miners to dig in five different mines, the odds of striking it rich just got a lot better.
And if you're starting two WRs and a flex, there's almost no reason to draft more than four WRs. I've seen teams with six or seven WRs. Why are people drafting WR4s (around 90-120 ADP) instead of Ballage (121 ADP) or Kareem Hunt (102 ADP)? Don't worry about stashing middling receivers for bye weeks. When the time comes, you'll find a plug-and-play free agent. In the early going, load up on high-upside talent. RBs get hurt all the time. So figure out how to capitalize.
And to reinforce how I don't over-plan, I did one more mock draft last night--another 14-team league. Picking 12th this time, I soon had to abandon landing two undervalued RBs early, opting instead for the value sitting in front of me. My picks, in order, were Kelce, JuJu, Golladay, Mahomes, Lamar Miller, Royce Freeman, Bears DST, Ballage, Ronald Jones, Jaylen Samuels, Will Lutz, DeVante Parker, Jamaal Williams, Chase Edmonds, Dexter Williams, and Preston Williams. (If you've been reading my posts this week, you can pick out the hedges: two Miami WRs and two Green Bay RBs.) This doesn't mean I'm definitely drafting Kelce at #12 in a real draft (though I might). But I learned a lot playing this scenario out. And that's the biggest benefit to mock drafting.
---
Some very quick thoughts about Thursday's preseason games.
Miles Sanders rebounded from an uneventful first preseason game, collecting 31 yards on five carries. For the past few weeks on my draft board he's been ranked a little better than his RB-33 ADP.
With Marqise Lee hurt and D.J. Chark not stepping up, the Jags' receiving corps could turn out to be the worst in the AFC--yes, even worse than Buffalo's. If you're relying on Chris Conley, you're in trouble.
I keep moving Mark Ingram down (not to subscribers: I moved him down further after sending you the latest rankings). I simply don't see him carrying the load all year in what is a very talented backfield. Gus Edwards isn't going anywhere, Lamar Jackson will get his touches, and rookie Justice Hill--a guy I've been targeting very late in mocks--has looked good.
And Kyler Murray looked unprepared. My June rundown of the Cardinals devoted five paragraphs to questioning the logic of his insane QB-12 ADP. Now he's edged up to 11. Subscribers know I've been ranking him in the high 20's all summer. Let someone else take the rookie (overall 95 ADP) while you invest in a low-triple-digit ADP option like Ballage, Hunt, Royce Freeman, or Curtis Samuel. Or if you need a QB, for freak's sake, Jared Goff is ranked one spot below Murray. Goff will comfortably outperform Murray, period.
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Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W