Two more contrarian predictions today. But first a word on Jimmy Garoppolo. I'm looking pretty dumb to rank him inside my top 14 QB. His five interceptions on five straight passes in last week's practice was, of course shocking. Yes, it was only practice. But following that up with a 1-for-6 performance in Monday's preseason game (zero yards, one interception) reinforced the concerns many managers and experts have--that Jimmy G. (QB-21 ADP) simply isn't draftable.
I tried putting it in perspective on Twitter, pointing out that after Tom Brady tore his ACL in 2008, he averaged 15.6 points in his first five games in 2009, and then 18.7 the rest of the season. And after Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in 2017, he averaged 18.2 points in his first 6 games in 2018, and then 22.7 the rest of the season.
That's not to say every player coming off an ACL tear needs time to return to form (Carson Palmer in 2015 is one example). But Jimmy was a near-universal preseason QB1 last summer. He's not as bad as he's looked. There might be some tentativeness, which is common for athletes coming off serious injuries. So unless some report comes out stating he might sit the first few games while he "gets into game shape," or that he's "not yet 100%," I'll remain confident about his likely 2019 potential.
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As subscribers of my rankings will see tonight, I've been undervaluing Matthew Stafford as my 19th-ranked QB. I actually wrote about his misguided ADP in early July, warning folks not to ignore him. But when crafting my rankings, there were simply too many good quarterbacks to consider in the top 12-24. And so I wedged him into the low teens.
No longer. Last year he was the 20th best fantasy QB, in large part because one of the most trusted receivers of his career (Golden Tate) was traded mid-season, while another (Marvin Jones) missed a good chunk of the season with a knee injury. The team inexplicably gave LeGarrette Blount 154 carries; he was a drive killer, averaging an abysmal 2.7 YPC. Think about that: 57% of Blount's carries went for two yards or less. Re-imagine that 2.7 average as, at minimum, 4.0, and consider how much more effective Detroit's bottom-10 offense would have been. Oh, and by the way, during Stafford’s 10-year career, only once has a Detroit RB exceeded 860 rushing yards. Again, imagine what a dynamic running game led by workhorse Kerryon Johnson will mean to this offense.
Stafford's QB ADP is 25. That's often reserved for quarterbacks on short leashes, or rookies inheriting a sub-par receiving corps. 119 of 121 experts (98%) rank him outside the top 16, and believe it or not, 96% rank him in the 20's. This is a guy who posted QB1 numbers the previous three years. But a bad 2018 has made him useless to fantasy managers everywhere. Ridiculous. Stafford will be a top-16 QB, and his clear QB1 upside makes him a must-draft option in almost every league.
On the flip side, nearly two months ago I warned readers about Kyler Murray's excessively optimistic QB-12 ADP. Today it's still QB12. I don't understand it. Well, I do and I don't. No doubt, he's talented. And he has a solid receiving corps and a terrific bellcow RB. But as stated above, there are so many QBs with a realistic shot at QB production.
More than half of the 121 fantasy experts rank him inside the top 12. 88% place him inside the top 18. I'll gladly let an opponent take him at his ADP, and even beyond. Murray won't be a top-18 QB.
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I tried putting it in perspective on Twitter, pointing out that after Tom Brady tore his ACL in 2008, he averaged 15.6 points in his first five games in 2009, and then 18.7 the rest of the season. And after Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in 2017, he averaged 18.2 points in his first 6 games in 2018, and then 22.7 the rest of the season.
That's not to say every player coming off an ACL tear needs time to return to form (Carson Palmer in 2015 is one example). But Jimmy was a near-universal preseason QB1 last summer. He's not as bad as he's looked. There might be some tentativeness, which is common for athletes coming off serious injuries. So unless some report comes out stating he might sit the first few games while he "gets into game shape," or that he's "not yet 100%," I'll remain confident about his likely 2019 potential.
--
As subscribers of my rankings will see tonight, I've been undervaluing Matthew Stafford as my 19th-ranked QB. I actually wrote about his misguided ADP in early July, warning folks not to ignore him. But when crafting my rankings, there were simply too many good quarterbacks to consider in the top 12-24. And so I wedged him into the low teens.
No longer. Last year he was the 20th best fantasy QB, in large part because one of the most trusted receivers of his career (Golden Tate) was traded mid-season, while another (Marvin Jones) missed a good chunk of the season with a knee injury. The team inexplicably gave LeGarrette Blount 154 carries; he was a drive killer, averaging an abysmal 2.7 YPC. Think about that: 57% of Blount's carries went for two yards or less. Re-imagine that 2.7 average as, at minimum, 4.0, and consider how much more effective Detroit's bottom-10 offense would have been. Oh, and by the way, during Stafford’s 10-year career, only once has a Detroit RB exceeded 860 rushing yards. Again, imagine what a dynamic running game led by workhorse Kerryon Johnson will mean to this offense.
Stafford's QB ADP is 25. That's often reserved for quarterbacks on short leashes, or rookies inheriting a sub-par receiving corps. 119 of 121 experts (98%) rank him outside the top 16, and believe it or not, 96% rank him in the 20's. This is a guy who posted QB1 numbers the previous three years. But a bad 2018 has made him useless to fantasy managers everywhere. Ridiculous. Stafford will be a top-16 QB, and his clear QB1 upside makes him a must-draft option in almost every league.
On the flip side, nearly two months ago I warned readers about Kyler Murray's excessively optimistic QB-12 ADP. Today it's still QB12. I don't understand it. Well, I do and I don't. No doubt, he's talented. And he has a solid receiving corps and a terrific bellcow RB. But as stated above, there are so many QBs with a realistic shot at QB production.
More than half of the 121 fantasy experts rank him inside the top 12. 88% place him inside the top 18. I'll gladly let an opponent take him at his ADP, and even beyond. Murray won't be a top-18 QB.
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