Never count out Josh Gordon.
In 2013 he was the #2 fantasy WR and was #3 overall in points per game behind Peyton Manning and Jamaal Charles. Except Payton and Charles were at the beginning of the end of their careers. Gordon was only 22. He had the tools to be an all-time great. Since then he's missed 58 regular-season games due mostly to suspensions and partly to "stepping away from the game." Yet he proved his value in New England last season, and now it looks like he'll be back on the field this year with the NFL reinstating him.
His WR ADP has climbed from 65 to 60 in the past 24 hours, while N'Keal Harry's has ticked down from 44 to 48. Since we don't know when exactly Gordon will return--and we certainly don't know whether he'll make it through the season unscathed--I won't draft him before a double-digit round, and only if I have a deep bench. Gordon needs to thread the needle to be a consistent WR3+ again.
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Quick observations of the most interesting battles in last night's preseason games. Josh Rosen outplayed Ryan Fitzpatrick. Eli Manning looked sharp, but Daniel Jones has clearly earned some starts if the Giants wilt under Eli (though his two fumbles didn't help). Paul Perkins finally ran well. Will it be enough to earn the 2A handcuff role behind Saquon Barkley? And Cole Beasley helped his cause in an up-for-grabs Buffalo receiving corps.
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Gotta hit on RB handcuffs at least one more times before most people start drafting.
Last year seven of the preseason top-10 RBs (based on ADP) missed at least one game, combining to miss 37 contests. Two were catastrophic disappointments as a result. Meanwhile, seven of the preseason top 11-20 RBs missed at least one game, combining to miss 33 contests. We know with near certainty that a dozen or more seemingly undraftable RBs will help some of us win some weeks--and might even help us win the title.
I'm harping on this because in mock drafts I'm continually seeing other managers waste picks: a backup TE when they already have a weekly starter, or a team's rarely targeted #3 receiver who might barely be fantasy startable even if one of the top-2 receivers goes down. These are not difference-making picks. They're fillers. Make difference-making picks, with full knowledge that usually a majority of Week 1 RB starters will miss time for one reason or another.
In case it's not obvious, we're already seeing this play out in 2019. Zeke Elliott and Melvin Gordon--both of whom would otherwise be top-6 preseason RBs--are at risk of missing games because of their holdouts. Beyond injuries, James Conner (RB-7 ADP) has a tenuous hold on the starting job (in my opinion), Todd Gurley (RB-8) is battling an arthritic knee, Joe Mixon (RB-9) is dealing with a bad-to-worse offensive line, Damien Williams (RB-13) is no lock to start most games, and I'm not sure most people believe Leonard Fournette (RB-14) will stay healthy all year.
That's seven of the top 14 preseason RBs. There will be plenty of RB points up for grabs this year. Make sure a big chunk of those points are sitting on your bench.
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In 2013 he was the #2 fantasy WR and was #3 overall in points per game behind Peyton Manning and Jamaal Charles. Except Payton and Charles were at the beginning of the end of their careers. Gordon was only 22. He had the tools to be an all-time great. Since then he's missed 58 regular-season games due mostly to suspensions and partly to "stepping away from the game." Yet he proved his value in New England last season, and now it looks like he'll be back on the field this year with the NFL reinstating him.
His WR ADP has climbed from 65 to 60 in the past 24 hours, while N'Keal Harry's has ticked down from 44 to 48. Since we don't know when exactly Gordon will return--and we certainly don't know whether he'll make it through the season unscathed--I won't draft him before a double-digit round, and only if I have a deep bench. Gordon needs to thread the needle to be a consistent WR3+ again.
---
Quick observations of the most interesting battles in last night's preseason games. Josh Rosen outplayed Ryan Fitzpatrick. Eli Manning looked sharp, but Daniel Jones has clearly earned some starts if the Giants wilt under Eli (though his two fumbles didn't help). Paul Perkins finally ran well. Will it be enough to earn the 2A handcuff role behind Saquon Barkley? And Cole Beasley helped his cause in an up-for-grabs Buffalo receiving corps.
---
Gotta hit on RB handcuffs at least one more times before most people start drafting.
Last year seven of the preseason top-10 RBs (based on ADP) missed at least one game, combining to miss 37 contests. Two were catastrophic disappointments as a result. Meanwhile, seven of the preseason top 11-20 RBs missed at least one game, combining to miss 33 contests. We know with near certainty that a dozen or more seemingly undraftable RBs will help some of us win some weeks--and might even help us win the title.
I'm harping on this because in mock drafts I'm continually seeing other managers waste picks: a backup TE when they already have a weekly starter, or a team's rarely targeted #3 receiver who might barely be fantasy startable even if one of the top-2 receivers goes down. These are not difference-making picks. They're fillers. Make difference-making picks, with full knowledge that usually a majority of Week 1 RB starters will miss time for one reason or another.
In case it's not obvious, we're already seeing this play out in 2019. Zeke Elliott and Melvin Gordon--both of whom would otherwise be top-6 preseason RBs--are at risk of missing games because of their holdouts. Beyond injuries, James Conner (RB-7 ADP) has a tenuous hold on the starting job (in my opinion), Todd Gurley (RB-8) is battling an arthritic knee, Joe Mixon (RB-9) is dealing with a bad-to-worse offensive line, Damien Williams (RB-13) is no lock to start most games, and I'm not sure most people believe Leonard Fournette (RB-14) will stay healthy all year.
That's seven of the top 14 preseason RBs. There will be plenty of RB points up for grabs this year. Make sure a big chunk of those points are sitting on your bench.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W