Week 1 is nearly here. Only a few preseason columns to go. There's too much I want to share and not enough time to share it. Today's I want to talk a little bit about draft positions.
But first, many of you are drafting today and/or tomorrow. Maybe most of you. This is an intense fantasy weekend. Whether you're new to this page or have been here for years, you probably know about my top 300 PPR rankings, which are really more than just rankings. They're a guide for value-based drafting: who's undervalued, who's overvalued, who's the higher-upside RB, who's the higher-upside WR, and so on.
This is the fourth season I've been doing this. A record 230 of you have subscribed, donating whatever you've wanted to, ranging from $1 to $200. If you want to receive the rankings, either donate via PayPal to fantasyfootballforwinners@gmail.com, or register using the big blue box on www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com. I'll then sign you up and get the latest rankings out to you, usually within an hour.
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Draft position: Does it matter? Sometimes, but not always. Yeah, pretty vague. But that reflects the incredible amount of luck that goes into predicting fantasy outcomes. It's why when reviewing experts' preseason top-20 RBs, often only 10 finish in the top 20. In general, that's not the experts' fault. It's just the nature of fantasy prognosticating.
So suppose last year you picked second in a 10-team PPR league the Sunday before Week 1. And suppose everyone drafted based on ADP (not unlike a universal autodraft). You would have gone second, 19th, 22nd, 39th, 42nd, 59th, 62nd, and so on. Again, based solely on ADP, these would have been your first seven picks:
Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Mike Evans, Royce Freeman, Jay Ajayi, Cam Newton, and Michael Crabtree.
On paper in early September 2018, that would have looked like a solid start. Royce Freeman was expected to lead Denver's backfield, Crabtree was a good bet to lead Raven receivers, Cam was a top-5 QB, Ajayi was an RB2, and Bell/Freeman/Evans would be weekly high performers.
Of course, it didn't work out that way. Some of it was predictable, like Bell being a risky #2 overall pick thanks to a hold-out with no end in sight. And Crabtree was already a declining talent hoping to resuscitate his career in Baltimore. But based on near-universal projected numbers, these seven guys should have given you a strong foundation. But given what transpired, you would have had to fairly dramatically remake your team, or hope that your later picks bailed you out.
Now suppose you'd picked sixth in the first round, followed by 15th, 26th, 35th, etc. Drafting based on ADP, you would have snagged Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, LeSean McCoy, and Zach Ertz as your first four. McCoy's anticipated regression aside, that's an incredible start: two top-4 RBs (not to mention two of the best four flex performers) and the #2 TE, who by the way outscored all but five RBs.
Although we all know real drafting is more thoughtful and dynamic than simply going off ADP, this is a reminder that on the one hand draft position absolutely matters, and on the other hand we often don't know how much it matters until later in the season. It's why, for the final time this summer, I'm pleading with you all not to treat rankings--mine included--as gospel, and not to select a player in the second round just because he's the next available guy on your sheet.
One more thing on drafting: Stated most simply, in my opinion every pick in the early rounds should be high-floor / high-ceiling. As the draft continues, keep targeting high ceilings while lowering your floors when necessary. By the end, assuming there's enough bench space, you're landing RB handcuffs who will be either worthless or incredibly valuable.
And looking back to yesterday's column, this is why I'm not reaching for Zeke Elliott or Melvin Gordon. There will be multiple RB1s or RB2s this season who started as RB4s or worse. Zeke and Gordon command early-round bids. If you guess right on a handcuff, you're getting fantasy starter production from a double-digit-round selection. Zeke and Gordon are a lot more reliable, but that assumes they return to their respective teams. I'd rather use those early picks to lock in more assured value like a WR1, and the later picks to gamble on comparable value.
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Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
But first, many of you are drafting today and/or tomorrow. Maybe most of you. This is an intense fantasy weekend. Whether you're new to this page or have been here for years, you probably know about my top 300 PPR rankings, which are really more than just rankings. They're a guide for value-based drafting: who's undervalued, who's overvalued, who's the higher-upside RB, who's the higher-upside WR, and so on.
This is the fourth season I've been doing this. A record 230 of you have subscribed, donating whatever you've wanted to, ranging from $1 to $200. If you want to receive the rankings, either donate via PayPal to fantasyfootballforwinners@gmail.com, or register using the big blue box on www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com. I'll then sign you up and get the latest rankings out to you, usually within an hour.
---
Draft position: Does it matter? Sometimes, but not always. Yeah, pretty vague. But that reflects the incredible amount of luck that goes into predicting fantasy outcomes. It's why when reviewing experts' preseason top-20 RBs, often only 10 finish in the top 20. In general, that's not the experts' fault. It's just the nature of fantasy prognosticating.
So suppose last year you picked second in a 10-team PPR league the Sunday before Week 1. And suppose everyone drafted based on ADP (not unlike a universal autodraft). You would have gone second, 19th, 22nd, 39th, 42nd, 59th, 62nd, and so on. Again, based solely on ADP, these would have been your first seven picks:
Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Mike Evans, Royce Freeman, Jay Ajayi, Cam Newton, and Michael Crabtree.
On paper in early September 2018, that would have looked like a solid start. Royce Freeman was expected to lead Denver's backfield, Crabtree was a good bet to lead Raven receivers, Cam was a top-5 QB, Ajayi was an RB2, and Bell/Freeman/Evans would be weekly high performers.
Of course, it didn't work out that way. Some of it was predictable, like Bell being a risky #2 overall pick thanks to a hold-out with no end in sight. And Crabtree was already a declining talent hoping to resuscitate his career in Baltimore. But based on near-universal projected numbers, these seven guys should have given you a strong foundation. But given what transpired, you would have had to fairly dramatically remake your team, or hope that your later picks bailed you out.
Now suppose you'd picked sixth in the first round, followed by 15th, 26th, 35th, etc. Drafting based on ADP, you would have snagged Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, LeSean McCoy, and Zach Ertz as your first four. McCoy's anticipated regression aside, that's an incredible start: two top-4 RBs (not to mention two of the best four flex performers) and the #2 TE, who by the way outscored all but five RBs.
Although we all know real drafting is more thoughtful and dynamic than simply going off ADP, this is a reminder that on the one hand draft position absolutely matters, and on the other hand we often don't know how much it matters until later in the season. It's why, for the final time this summer, I'm pleading with you all not to treat rankings--mine included--as gospel, and not to select a player in the second round just because he's the next available guy on your sheet.
One more thing on drafting: Stated most simply, in my opinion every pick in the early rounds should be high-floor / high-ceiling. As the draft continues, keep targeting high ceilings while lowering your floors when necessary. By the end, assuming there's enough bench space, you're landing RB handcuffs who will be either worthless or incredibly valuable.
And looking back to yesterday's column, this is why I'm not reaching for Zeke Elliott or Melvin Gordon. There will be multiple RB1s or RB2s this season who started as RB4s or worse. Zeke and Gordon command early-round bids. If you guess right on a handcuff, you're getting fantasy starter production from a double-digit-round selection. Zeke and Gordon are a lot more reliable, but that assumes they return to their respective teams. I'd rather use those early picks to lock in more assured value like a WR1, and the later picks to gamble on comparable value.
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Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W