I'm approaching contrarian predictions a little differently this season. Rather than toss around overvalued and undervalued guys, I'll always pair an overvalued player with an undervalued one. This is more for fairness than anything else. It's easier to predict a seemingly great player will fall short of expectations, than to predict a lesser player will do better than expected. Just look at the graphs I shared last week showing how frequently top-20 players do worse than expected. Injuries, demotions, etc. can hit at any time. I could predict the top 10 RBs will finish outside the top 15, and I'll probably hit 50% based on historical trends. That's too easy.
And that's why for each overvalued guy, I'll also share an undervalued one--someone who needs to overcome multiple perceived challenges to reach my own expectations. With that in mind, here are my ninth and 10th contrarian preseason predictions:
Devonta Freeman’s RB ADP (16) hasn't budged since I first wrote about him and the rest of the Falcons a month ago. That's not right. At a time when Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon might actually sit some games, and with Todd Gurley's arthritic knee raising serious doubts about his usage and productivity, Freeman deserves to be in the RB1 conversation. In his first full season in 2015, Freeman was the #1 fantasy RB. A year later he posted nearly identical numbers and finished at #6.
Then things started getting tougher in 2017, as an ascending Tevin Coleman nearly out-touched him. It might surprise some of you (it surprised me, since I'd forgotten), but Freeman still managed to put up the 13th most RB fantasy points that year despite missing two games. Then, of course, his injury-plagued 2018 campaign was a lost season.
So to recap, 2019 will be the first year a starting Devonta Freeman won't have to compete with Coleman. His current backups (Ito Smith and Brian Hill) are simply less talented than Coleman. And Freeman's been a top-13 RB in three of the past four seasons. He's primed for a fantastic year.
Yet most experts disagree. 98 out of 108 (91%) rank him outside the top 10, and more than half actually rank him worse than his ADP. Yes, Freeman could get hurt again. But with few exceptions, we can't fear injuries when drafting. If healthy, Freeman is a locked-in RB1. He'll finish in the top 10.
On the flip side, I've waited long enough to write about Damien Williams. Many weeks ago I sounded the alarm when his RB ADP was an unfathomable 13: "We cannot afford to ignore the risks of a 27-year-old gearing up for a bellcow role after never earning more than 73 touches in a season." FF4W's Joel Verzosa has been doing his part to warn people. But reader Chris Polen advised me not to name Williams as a contrarian prediction while he was sidelined with a hamstring injury. So I've been laying low, waiting for the opportunity to double-down.
Guess what: a week after Williams healed up and returned to practice, his ADP is still 13. I'm not joking. With Carlos Hyde and Darwin Williams showing well, managers are still consistently drafting Williams as if he's a locked-in weekly fantasy starter.
Yet it's more than just managers. Of the 108 experts featured on Fantasy Pros, 95 (88%) rank him in the top 20. Two-thirds place him in the top 16. More than half are keeping him in the top 14. What is going on?! Williams is one of the riskiest top-20 RBs, period. I'm going on record that he won't be a top-20 back.
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And that's why for each overvalued guy, I'll also share an undervalued one--someone who needs to overcome multiple perceived challenges to reach my own expectations. With that in mind, here are my ninth and 10th contrarian preseason predictions:
Devonta Freeman’s RB ADP (16) hasn't budged since I first wrote about him and the rest of the Falcons a month ago. That's not right. At a time when Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon might actually sit some games, and with Todd Gurley's arthritic knee raising serious doubts about his usage and productivity, Freeman deserves to be in the RB1 conversation. In his first full season in 2015, Freeman was the #1 fantasy RB. A year later he posted nearly identical numbers and finished at #6.
Then things started getting tougher in 2017, as an ascending Tevin Coleman nearly out-touched him. It might surprise some of you (it surprised me, since I'd forgotten), but Freeman still managed to put up the 13th most RB fantasy points that year despite missing two games. Then, of course, his injury-plagued 2018 campaign was a lost season.
So to recap, 2019 will be the first year a starting Devonta Freeman won't have to compete with Coleman. His current backups (Ito Smith and Brian Hill) are simply less talented than Coleman. And Freeman's been a top-13 RB in three of the past four seasons. He's primed for a fantastic year.
Yet most experts disagree. 98 out of 108 (91%) rank him outside the top 10, and more than half actually rank him worse than his ADP. Yes, Freeman could get hurt again. But with few exceptions, we can't fear injuries when drafting. If healthy, Freeman is a locked-in RB1. He'll finish in the top 10.
On the flip side, I've waited long enough to write about Damien Williams. Many weeks ago I sounded the alarm when his RB ADP was an unfathomable 13: "We cannot afford to ignore the risks of a 27-year-old gearing up for a bellcow role after never earning more than 73 touches in a season." FF4W's Joel Verzosa has been doing his part to warn people. But reader Chris Polen advised me not to name Williams as a contrarian prediction while he was sidelined with a hamstring injury. So I've been laying low, waiting for the opportunity to double-down.
Guess what: a week after Williams healed up and returned to practice, his ADP is still 13. I'm not joking. With Carlos Hyde and Darwin Williams showing well, managers are still consistently drafting Williams as if he's a locked-in weekly fantasy starter.
Yet it's more than just managers. Of the 108 experts featured on Fantasy Pros, 95 (88%) rank him in the top 20. Two-thirds place him in the top 16. More than half are keeping him in the top 14. What is going on?! Williams is one of the riskiest top-20 RBs, period. I'm going on record that he won't be a top-20 back.
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Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W