Today's contrarian preseason predictions feature a significantly undervalued and overvalued WR. First, Devante Parker--one of fantasy's most egregiously undervalued receivers. Forget about his lost 2018 season, when he looked to be on his way out of Miami. There were reports of the team trying to trade him. He received some “healthy scratch” tags.
Well now there's a new regime in Miami, and he'll enter Week 1 as the team's likely #1 receiver. The Dolphins' recent signing of Allen Hurns says everything you need to know about this receiving corps. Aside from Kenny Stills, there's no obvious competition for targets. Parker's a former first-rounder who just barely earned top-50 WR production in 2016 and 2017 despite missing a combined four games. He's still only 26 years old, and the team's defense is expected to be bad, meaning plenty of second-half throws from Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Josh Rosen.
Parker's WR ADP four weeks ago was 63. Four days ago it was 65. Today it's 71. It's insane--a complete misreading of the situation. And fantasy experts largely agree: 80% of the 94 listed on Fantasy Pros rank him in the 60s, 70s, 80s, or 90s. If the wheels come off Parker's career, they'll be right. If he reverts to 2016/2017 form, they'll be wrong. If he steps up (as I expect), they'll be painfully wrong. 99% of experts rank him outside the top 45. He'll be a top-45 WR this season, with a great shot at top-35 production if he stays healthy. This is a talented receiver who's been slowed by injuries and inconsistency. With the Miami new regime in his corner, he'll enjoy a career year.
Last year's #2 fantasy wideout is this year's most overrated WR1. Davante Adams is one of the NFL's most talented receivers, and he's catching passes from an all-time-great QB. Yet that doesn't mean he deserves his (no surprise) WR-2 ADP. In fact, I'm going out on a limb to say he's a late-second-round pick at best.
How is that possible? Let's examine the context. Adams was second in the league in targets last year with 169, and he was second in touchdowns with 13. In the last 15 seasons, only 13 WRs have scored more fantasy points. So yeah, those are some high expectations heading into 2019.
Then there's Green Bay's up-and-coming receiving corps. Last year Geronimo Allison was poised to take a huge leap forward with 59.9 fantasy points in the first four games--on pace for the 14th most WR points in fantasy. But then Allison missed 11 games with injuries, while Equanimeous St. Brown missed four. Randall Cobb missed seven. The aging Jimmy Graham became Green Bay's #2 receiver (in receptions and receiving yards), while rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling was forced into a #3 role. Adams dominated for two reasons: He's exceptionally talented, and he was in a deceptively top-heavy receiving corps. That won't be the case this season.
All 104 experts via Fantasy Pros rank him inside the top 8. 30% of them rank him #1, while another 42% rank him #2. 100 of the 104 place him in the top 5. You see where I'm going with this. Next to DeAndre Hopkins, Adams is the surest WR bet in fantasy. Except he isn't. Adams won't be a top-10 WR.
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Well now there's a new regime in Miami, and he'll enter Week 1 as the team's likely #1 receiver. The Dolphins' recent signing of Allen Hurns says everything you need to know about this receiving corps. Aside from Kenny Stills, there's no obvious competition for targets. Parker's a former first-rounder who just barely earned top-50 WR production in 2016 and 2017 despite missing a combined four games. He's still only 26 years old, and the team's defense is expected to be bad, meaning plenty of second-half throws from Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Josh Rosen.
Parker's WR ADP four weeks ago was 63. Four days ago it was 65. Today it's 71. It's insane--a complete misreading of the situation. And fantasy experts largely agree: 80% of the 94 listed on Fantasy Pros rank him in the 60s, 70s, 80s, or 90s. If the wheels come off Parker's career, they'll be right. If he reverts to 2016/2017 form, they'll be wrong. If he steps up (as I expect), they'll be painfully wrong. 99% of experts rank him outside the top 45. He'll be a top-45 WR this season, with a great shot at top-35 production if he stays healthy. This is a talented receiver who's been slowed by injuries and inconsistency. With the Miami new regime in his corner, he'll enjoy a career year.
Last year's #2 fantasy wideout is this year's most overrated WR1. Davante Adams is one of the NFL's most talented receivers, and he's catching passes from an all-time-great QB. Yet that doesn't mean he deserves his (no surprise) WR-2 ADP. In fact, I'm going out on a limb to say he's a late-second-round pick at best.
How is that possible? Let's examine the context. Adams was second in the league in targets last year with 169, and he was second in touchdowns with 13. In the last 15 seasons, only 13 WRs have scored more fantasy points. So yeah, those are some high expectations heading into 2019.
Then there's Green Bay's up-and-coming receiving corps. Last year Geronimo Allison was poised to take a huge leap forward with 59.9 fantasy points in the first four games--on pace for the 14th most WR points in fantasy. But then Allison missed 11 games with injuries, while Equanimeous St. Brown missed four. Randall Cobb missed seven. The aging Jimmy Graham became Green Bay's #2 receiver (in receptions and receiving yards), while rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling was forced into a #3 role. Adams dominated for two reasons: He's exceptionally talented, and he was in a deceptively top-heavy receiving corps. That won't be the case this season.
All 104 experts via Fantasy Pros rank him inside the top 8. 30% of them rank him #1, while another 42% rank him #2. 100 of the 104 place him in the top 5. You see where I'm going with this. Next to DeAndre Hopkins, Adams is the surest WR bet in fantasy. Except he isn't. Adams won't be a top-10 WR.
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