Folks might not remember this (I didn't 'til I looked over the numbers), but from his second season in 2004 to his "final" season in 2017, Jason Witten was a TE1. Every year. That's 14 straight seasons, and that's truly incredible. He never missed a game during that stretch, and he retired as not only one of the greatest tight ends in NFL history, but also one of the greatest receivers: #4 in receptions and #21 in receiving yards.
Then in February, after a year away from the game, Witten changed his mind, writing "The fire inside of me to compete and play this game is just burning too strong."
That's the kind of guy I want on my team. Not as a weekly TE fantasy starter, but as a weekly NFL starter.
Fantasy managers and experts not only don't view him as a weekly starter; they don't even view him as a streamer. True, there were early reports that Dallas will limit his snaps. That doesn't phase me: (a) This plan could chance once the season starts, and (b) the NFL is littered with players who have outperformed expectations despite playing fewer snaps. What are the other yellow flags? Well, he's 37, so that's never a great sign for a receiver. And Dallas has improved its receivers since Witten retired. But really, what's stopping the old veteran from averaging three catches and 40 yards per game? Even with zero touchdowns (highly unlikely), a weekly 3/40 line would have ranked Witten 17th among TEs last season.
Yet his TE ADP is 25. Ridiculous. Most experts place him even lower, with 53% believing he'll finish 30th or worse (as bad as 79th). 75 of 77 experts rank him 20th or worse. I predict he'll be a top-16 option. Deep-leaguers can target him late, and shallow-leagers should keep him on your radars during bye weeks.
On the flip side, I'm wary of George Kittle--not his positional ranking, but where he's going in drafts. Last year he was a dominant #3 fantasy TE. His 258.7 points would have placed him #1 the three previous seasons. There is a misguided belief that 2018 is his floor. So let's take a closer look at his frighteningly aggressive overall-30 ADP.
My only knock on him heading into this season is that he won’t match his 136 looks from last season. He was targeted on 26% of all pass attempts. That was higher than Travis Kelce. That was even higher than Antonio Brown. The top-heavy TE position makes Kittle valuable, but let’s not assume 2018 is his new baseline.
Kittle's talent is unquestioned. He's really good. But last year he was forced to become the Niners' offensive focal point. He was targeted on 26% of all pass attempts. That was higher than Travis Kelce, and even Antonio Brown. Remember Calvin Johnson's 122/1,964 career year in 2012? He earned just under 28% of Detroit's targets that season. So if you think Kittle will maintain that heavy usage, you have to believe Jimmy Garoppolo won't have many other options.
But of course, Jimmy G. does. Last year's #2 49er receiver was Kendrick Bourne. Had Pierre Garcon played a full season, he was on track to be better than Bourne, which shows how little competition Kittle had. Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin missed nine games combined. And in April the team drafted the highly touted Deebo Samuel and the potentially solid Jalen Hurd. Trent Taylor will also be in the mix once again.
Simply put, while I'm not moving Kittle down my TE draft board, there's no way he's coming close to last year's production. Kittle's fantasy production will plummet at least 25% in 2019. Relatively speaking, he'll remain a high-end fantasy option. But if you draft him at his current ADP, he'll be a bust.
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Then in February, after a year away from the game, Witten changed his mind, writing "The fire inside of me to compete and play this game is just burning too strong."
That's the kind of guy I want on my team. Not as a weekly TE fantasy starter, but as a weekly NFL starter.
Fantasy managers and experts not only don't view him as a weekly starter; they don't even view him as a streamer. True, there were early reports that Dallas will limit his snaps. That doesn't phase me: (a) This plan could chance once the season starts, and (b) the NFL is littered with players who have outperformed expectations despite playing fewer snaps. What are the other yellow flags? Well, he's 37, so that's never a great sign for a receiver. And Dallas has improved its receivers since Witten retired. But really, what's stopping the old veteran from averaging three catches and 40 yards per game? Even with zero touchdowns (highly unlikely), a weekly 3/40 line would have ranked Witten 17th among TEs last season.
Yet his TE ADP is 25. Ridiculous. Most experts place him even lower, with 53% believing he'll finish 30th or worse (as bad as 79th). 75 of 77 experts rank him 20th or worse. I predict he'll be a top-16 option. Deep-leaguers can target him late, and shallow-leagers should keep him on your radars during bye weeks.
On the flip side, I'm wary of George Kittle--not his positional ranking, but where he's going in drafts. Last year he was a dominant #3 fantasy TE. His 258.7 points would have placed him #1 the three previous seasons. There is a misguided belief that 2018 is his floor. So let's take a closer look at his frighteningly aggressive overall-30 ADP.
My only knock on him heading into this season is that he won’t match his 136 looks from last season. He was targeted on 26% of all pass attempts. That was higher than Travis Kelce. That was even higher than Antonio Brown. The top-heavy TE position makes Kittle valuable, but let’s not assume 2018 is his new baseline.
Kittle's talent is unquestioned. He's really good. But last year he was forced to become the Niners' offensive focal point. He was targeted on 26% of all pass attempts. That was higher than Travis Kelce, and even Antonio Brown. Remember Calvin Johnson's 122/1,964 career year in 2012? He earned just under 28% of Detroit's targets that season. So if you think Kittle will maintain that heavy usage, you have to believe Jimmy Garoppolo won't have many other options.
But of course, Jimmy G. does. Last year's #2 49er receiver was Kendrick Bourne. Had Pierre Garcon played a full season, he was on track to be better than Bourne, which shows how little competition Kittle had. Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin missed nine games combined. And in April the team drafted the highly touted Deebo Samuel and the potentially solid Jalen Hurd. Trent Taylor will also be in the mix once again.
Simply put, while I'm not moving Kittle down my TE draft board, there's no way he's coming close to last year's production. Kittle's fantasy production will plummet at least 25% in 2019. Relatively speaking, he'll remain a high-end fantasy option. But if you draft him at his current ADP, he'll be a bust.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W