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A couple days ago I launched my annual preseason contrarian predictions. Let's walk through two more today. First, Royce Freeman is a fantastic buy at his RB-40 ADP. The fantasy universe still believes Phillip Lindsay (RB-21) is Denver's clear #1 RB. As I pointed out last month, Lindsay led the league in yards before contact per attempt. In other words, things have to break just right for him to replicate last year's high-RB2 numbers. Meanwhile, the buzz out of camp is that the Broncos are anticipating a more even split between Lindsay and Freeman.
Although I often ignore "camp buzz" as more noise than fact, Denver didn't invest a third rounder on the talented Freeman to relegate him to a back-up role, particularly in an offense that has to be led by the backfield for it to be successful. Last year Lindsay earned a little more than double the touches Freeman did inside the opposing 10-yard line, and out-touched him 239-144 overall. Plus Freeman missed two games. If you project last year's numbers to a full 16-game season, then tack on a conservative 25% usage bump, Freeman would have finished 33rd in 2018. Climbing inside the top 30 isn't farfetched, and is a bet I'd take.
92 of the 99 experts (93%) compiled by Fantasy Pros rank Freeman outside the top 30. Ignore them. Freeman will be a top-30 RB even if Lindsay remains healthy all season, with plenty of room to rise as a bellcow-caliber back.
On the other hand, after pushing James Conner last summer, I'm pulling a 180 this summer. His ADP has actually improved in the past month, from 8th to 7th among all RBs. It's a ridiculous assumption based purely on last year's inflated stats. Conner enjoyed a near-perfect storm of dominance thanks to a nearly unprecedented offensive explosion (eight points shy of Pittsburgh's highest point total in their 86-season history). He also averaged 1.2 carries per contest inside the opposing 5-yard line--second most in the league--which he parlayed into 53.6 fantasy points (19% of his total).
For these reasons and more, his 2018 blow-up is unsustainable. Conner realistically has to play at least 15 games, he has to maintain his excellent YPC, he has to fend off the capable Jaylen Samuels, and the Steelers' offense has to dominate. More than two-third of experts rank him inside the top 8, and an incredible 98 of 99 (99%) rank him inside the top 14. Don't count on it: Conner won't be a top-14 RB.
And one more thing about Conner, because my views on him have caused some folks to push back hard. All good, because strong opinions are always welcomed. But just because a player had a great season, that doesn't mean he'll be great the following season. A QB with a 3-year track record of success? Sure, unless things dramatically change with that offense, and unless that QB is past his prime, there's little reason to be concerned heading into year #4. A widely viewed borderline NFL-caliber RB with sub-par combine scores and an extensive injury history? A risky bet any way you look at it, particularly at an ADP that leaves no room for regression or injury.
Some of you might be leaning on Conner in dynasty leagues. This is the challenge of writing candidly about players: I'll always piss off somebody, and in Conner's case, probably hundreds of somebodies. I feel strongly about this prediction, and that's why I'm pushing it so hard.
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Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
A couple days ago I launched my annual preseason contrarian predictions. Let's walk through two more today. First, Royce Freeman is a fantastic buy at his RB-40 ADP. The fantasy universe still believes Phillip Lindsay (RB-21) is Denver's clear #1 RB. As I pointed out last month, Lindsay led the league in yards before contact per attempt. In other words, things have to break just right for him to replicate last year's high-RB2 numbers. Meanwhile, the buzz out of camp is that the Broncos are anticipating a more even split between Lindsay and Freeman.
Although I often ignore "camp buzz" as more noise than fact, Denver didn't invest a third rounder on the talented Freeman to relegate him to a back-up role, particularly in an offense that has to be led by the backfield for it to be successful. Last year Lindsay earned a little more than double the touches Freeman did inside the opposing 10-yard line, and out-touched him 239-144 overall. Plus Freeman missed two games. If you project last year's numbers to a full 16-game season, then tack on a conservative 25% usage bump, Freeman would have finished 33rd in 2018. Climbing inside the top 30 isn't farfetched, and is a bet I'd take.
92 of the 99 experts (93%) compiled by Fantasy Pros rank Freeman outside the top 30. Ignore them. Freeman will be a top-30 RB even if Lindsay remains healthy all season, with plenty of room to rise as a bellcow-caliber back.
On the other hand, after pushing James Conner last summer, I'm pulling a 180 this summer. His ADP has actually improved in the past month, from 8th to 7th among all RBs. It's a ridiculous assumption based purely on last year's inflated stats. Conner enjoyed a near-perfect storm of dominance thanks to a nearly unprecedented offensive explosion (eight points shy of Pittsburgh's highest point total in their 86-season history). He also averaged 1.2 carries per contest inside the opposing 5-yard line--second most in the league--which he parlayed into 53.6 fantasy points (19% of his total).
For these reasons and more, his 2018 blow-up is unsustainable. Conner realistically has to play at least 15 games, he has to maintain his excellent YPC, he has to fend off the capable Jaylen Samuels, and the Steelers' offense has to dominate. More than two-third of experts rank him inside the top 8, and an incredible 98 of 99 (99%) rank him inside the top 14. Don't count on it: Conner won't be a top-14 RB.
And one more thing about Conner, because my views on him have caused some folks to push back hard. All good, because strong opinions are always welcomed. But just because a player had a great season, that doesn't mean he'll be great the following season. A QB with a 3-year track record of success? Sure, unless things dramatically change with that offense, and unless that QB is past his prime, there's little reason to be concerned heading into year #4. A widely viewed borderline NFL-caliber RB with sub-par combine scores and an extensive injury history? A risky bet any way you look at it, particularly at an ADP that leaves no room for regression or injury.
Some of you might be leaning on Conner in dynasty leagues. This is the challenge of writing candidly about players: I'll always piss off somebody, and in Conner's case, probably hundreds of somebodies. I feel strongly about this prediction, and that's why I'm pushing it so hard.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W