One more contrarian prediction today, this time covering two players: Jared Goff (QB-10) and Deshaun Watson (QB-2). Of course Watson will be better, right? In 2018 Houston's franchise QB started all 16 games en route to the fourth most fantasy points--this despite making the sixth fewest pass attempts in the league, losing his #2 receiver for nine games, and losing his #3 receiver for 10 games. Last month I wrote he has "#1 overall potential," and virtually all summer he's been my #1 fantasy QB.
So what's the problem? On Sunday I dropped him five spots to #6. Lamar Miller's season-ender didn't help, but it wasn't a main cause. I started thinking more about risk. Can I trust Watson as a #1 more than I can Aaron Rodgers? Sure, Watson is an explosive young talent. The sky's the limit. But is that all I want in a #1. No, I also want reliability--a guy with a huge ceiling and a huge floor. A strong case could be made that Rodgers' floor is just as low, thanks to two lost seasons in the last six years.
However, Green Bay has a top-10 offensive line, a strong running game, and a fantastic receiving corps. While Houston has many of the same ingredients for success, its o-line is atrocious. Watson led all quarterbacks last year with 62 sacks taken. That's right: 62, he most since Jon Kitna's 63 in 2006. And Watson's injury-shortened 2017 campaign wasn't much better in that department. And so in 23 NFL games he's absorbed 3.5 sacks per game. If he maintains that pace for eight more full seasons, he'll break Brett Favre's career record.
That's not to say highly sacked QBs can't be great. Some of the best of all time were also the most sacked. But injury risk increases with every hit. It's a ticking time bomb of sorts. Not what I want in a #1 QB.
Now let's turn to Jared Goff (QB-10 ADP). He was averaging 22.8 fantasy points in his first 11 games in 2018, which over a full season would have placed him #2 behind Patrick Mahomes. Then after the team's bye, something happened. The loss of Cooper Kupp had to have an impact, and Todd Gurley's mounting ailments surely played a role. And perhaps opposing coaches started game-planning more effectively. In seven of his final eight contests he totaled only three TD passes and eight picks. Those are third-string rookie numbers. He still finished seventh in fantasy scoring. And so it's shocking that this summer he's been widely regarded as a back-end QB1.
As FF4W rankings subscribers know, I've consistently viewed him as a bargain. He has one of the best receiving corps in the league, has one of the best running backs, and like Watson, is still in his early 20's--a pre-prime NFL quarterback with room to grow. Just as the Texans' offense looked unstoppable with Watson at the helm in 2017, so did the Rams' offense with Goff at QB in 2018 . . . until the wheels fell off.
Despite Goff's abysmal second half of the season, he amassed an exceptional 4,688/32/12 line while throwing 17% fewer passes than league leader Ben Roethlisberger (5,129/34/16). Earning .55 fantasy points per attempt, if Goff had thrown five more times per game (at .55 points per attempt), he still wouldn't have caught Big Ben in throws, but Goff would have surpassed Ben and Matt Ryan in fantasy scoring to become the #2 QB.
123 out of 124 experts rank Watson ahead of Goff. I'm going the other way. With less injury risk and a lethal supporting cast, not to mention an easier schedule, Goff is the better bet than Watson. By season's end, the Rams' franchise QB will have more fantasy points.
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So what's the problem? On Sunday I dropped him five spots to #6. Lamar Miller's season-ender didn't help, but it wasn't a main cause. I started thinking more about risk. Can I trust Watson as a #1 more than I can Aaron Rodgers? Sure, Watson is an explosive young talent. The sky's the limit. But is that all I want in a #1. No, I also want reliability--a guy with a huge ceiling and a huge floor. A strong case could be made that Rodgers' floor is just as low, thanks to two lost seasons in the last six years.
However, Green Bay has a top-10 offensive line, a strong running game, and a fantastic receiving corps. While Houston has many of the same ingredients for success, its o-line is atrocious. Watson led all quarterbacks last year with 62 sacks taken. That's right: 62, he most since Jon Kitna's 63 in 2006. And Watson's injury-shortened 2017 campaign wasn't much better in that department. And so in 23 NFL games he's absorbed 3.5 sacks per game. If he maintains that pace for eight more full seasons, he'll break Brett Favre's career record.
That's not to say highly sacked QBs can't be great. Some of the best of all time were also the most sacked. But injury risk increases with every hit. It's a ticking time bomb of sorts. Not what I want in a #1 QB.
Now let's turn to Jared Goff (QB-10 ADP). He was averaging 22.8 fantasy points in his first 11 games in 2018, which over a full season would have placed him #2 behind Patrick Mahomes. Then after the team's bye, something happened. The loss of Cooper Kupp had to have an impact, and Todd Gurley's mounting ailments surely played a role. And perhaps opposing coaches started game-planning more effectively. In seven of his final eight contests he totaled only three TD passes and eight picks. Those are third-string rookie numbers. He still finished seventh in fantasy scoring. And so it's shocking that this summer he's been widely regarded as a back-end QB1.
As FF4W rankings subscribers know, I've consistently viewed him as a bargain. He has one of the best receiving corps in the league, has one of the best running backs, and like Watson, is still in his early 20's--a pre-prime NFL quarterback with room to grow. Just as the Texans' offense looked unstoppable with Watson at the helm in 2017, so did the Rams' offense with Goff at QB in 2018 . . . until the wheels fell off.
Despite Goff's abysmal second half of the season, he amassed an exceptional 4,688/32/12 line while throwing 17% fewer passes than league leader Ben Roethlisberger (5,129/34/16). Earning .55 fantasy points per attempt, if Goff had thrown five more times per game (at .55 points per attempt), he still wouldn't have caught Big Ben in throws, but Goff would have surpassed Ben and Matt Ryan in fantasy scoring to become the #2 QB.
123 out of 124 experts rank Watson ahead of Goff. I'm going the other way. With less injury risk and a lethal supporting cast, not to mention an easier schedule, Goff is the better bet than Watson. By season's end, the Rams' franchise QB will have more fantasy points.
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