Two more contrarian predictions this morning, starting with a guy I've never been high on: Ty Montgomery. The former wideout was converted to a running back in Green Bay, and his relatively strong 2016 campaign made him the most overrated RB heading into 2017. His preseason ADP two years ago was an incredible RB-19. 98% of experts ranked him inside the top 28.
He ended up being a disappointment, but it wasn't his fault. A rib injury and re-injury sidelined him for half the season. He was actually on pace to be the 17th highest-scoring fantasy RB.
After a lost season in Baltimore, he's got a chance to turn his career around for the Jets. His competition includes Bilal Powell, who's turning 31 in October and is coming off a season-ending neck injury, and the talent-challenged Trenton Cannon and Elijah McGuire. In other words, Montgomery is a great bet to not only back up Le'Veon Bell, but to offer change-of-pace value.
But Montgomery has largely become a forgotten fantasy commodity. His overall ADP is, unbelievably, 300 . . . two spots behind Dez Bryant and nearly 50 behind the similarly unemployed Jay Ajayi. His RB ADP is 83. 104 of 108 experts (96%) rank him outside the top 50 RBs, while more than half place him outside the top 80. Simply put, it's an oversight. Montgomery will be a top-50 RB.
On the flip side, it pains me to knock Joe Mixon. I've been on his bandwagon since Cincinnati drafted him. If he and Zeke Elliott switched teams, Mixon would be in my top 5. But the Bengals' already questionable offensive line has taken too many hits this summer. Their first-round pick--a projected starter--was knocked out for the year. Another starting lineman retired. Then a solid backup lineman retired. And now another starter is expected to be out until Week 1.
The Bengals' D already has been projected as one of the league's worst, meaning the team likely will be throwing more late in games. But it's the o-line that makes me most wary.
102 of 109 experts (94%) rank him inside the top 12. I believe he won't be a top-12 RB.
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He ended up being a disappointment, but it wasn't his fault. A rib injury and re-injury sidelined him for half the season. He was actually on pace to be the 17th highest-scoring fantasy RB.
After a lost season in Baltimore, he's got a chance to turn his career around for the Jets. His competition includes Bilal Powell, who's turning 31 in October and is coming off a season-ending neck injury, and the talent-challenged Trenton Cannon and Elijah McGuire. In other words, Montgomery is a great bet to not only back up Le'Veon Bell, but to offer change-of-pace value.
But Montgomery has largely become a forgotten fantasy commodity. His overall ADP is, unbelievably, 300 . . . two spots behind Dez Bryant and nearly 50 behind the similarly unemployed Jay Ajayi. His RB ADP is 83. 104 of 108 experts (96%) rank him outside the top 50 RBs, while more than half place him outside the top 80. Simply put, it's an oversight. Montgomery will be a top-50 RB.
On the flip side, it pains me to knock Joe Mixon. I've been on his bandwagon since Cincinnati drafted him. If he and Zeke Elliott switched teams, Mixon would be in my top 5. But the Bengals' already questionable offensive line has taken too many hits this summer. Their first-round pick--a projected starter--was knocked out for the year. Another starting lineman retired. Then a solid backup lineman retired. And now another starter is expected to be out until Week 1.
The Bengals' D already has been projected as one of the league's worst, meaning the team likely will be throwing more late in games. But it's the o-line that makes me most wary.
102 of 109 experts (94%) rank him inside the top 12. I believe he won't be a top-12 RB.
---
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Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W