Two more contrarian predictions today. Remember, these are not intended to sound outlandish. They're based on average draft positions and near-universal expert expectations. If fantasy managers keep hearing one thing, and I think it's wrong, then I'm calling it out. These contrarian predictions are, essentially, my call-outs.
Shouldn't be surprising that one of today's predictions is Kenny Golladay. Each May when I crawl out of my fantasy hibernating hole and start doing research again, I consciously avoid looking at ADPs and expert rankings. Instead, I slowly start to assemble my own rankings. Then around mid-June, right before restarting these blog posts, I scan others' rankings to put mine in perspective.
So I was shocked a couple months ago to find that Golladay wasn't a universal top-12 WR. Last year he had seven games with 17+ points. To put that in perspective, Keenan Allen had eight. T.Y. Hilton had only six. Only 25 years old and now Detroit's clear-cut #1 receiver, Golladay is ascending. He was 10th in the league last year in 20+ yard pass plays (19 total) despite a relatively muted 119 targets. The Lions' offense as a whole was a bottom-10 mess last year. They leaned way too much on LeGarrette Blount, who somehow earned 154 carries despite averaging what I assume was a league-worst 2.7 YPC. Marvin Jones played barely half the season. The tight end situation was atrocious.
So yes, with a better running game and better/healthier complementary receivers, Golladay has room to grow.
His overall ADP (42) and positional ADP (WR-18) make him a huge draft bargain. Meanwhile, an astounding 103 out of 104 experts rank him outside the top 12 (and that last expert ranks him 12th). I'm picking Golladay to finish in the top 12.
On the flip side, I thought the Ravens made a mistake signing Mark Ingram to a three-year contract. The deal isn't horrible. And yes, Ingram is a proven #1 back. But their backfield wasn't a problem. And from a fantasy perspective, some intangibles make Ingram's RB-22 ADP incredibly risky. (By the way, his overall ADP is only three spots behind Golladay's. Later this year, we'll see why this ADP gap should have been much wider.)
Ingram will be 30 in December. He's missed 3+ games in five of eight NFL seasons. Lamar Jackson will run the ball a lot. Gus Edwards (5.2 YPC last season) won't ride the pine all year. And rookie Justice Hill is also a threat for touches.
For Ingram to meet or exceed expectations, he'll need to play 15+ games (the odds are not in his favor), earn a sizable role in the passing game, and secure about 16+ touches a game. And remember, this isn't New Orleans' high-powered offense, where Ingram thrived for years. This is a three-down, move-the-chains offense. Sounds good on paper, and it's a winning formula for Baltimore. But it won't help Ingram's fantasy managers as much as they think.
93 of 105 experts (89%) rank Ingram in the top 28. I can see why, but I'm not on board. Ingram won't be a top-28 RB this year, and if I had to bet, I'd say he won't be the Ravens' clear #1 RB next year.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Spreadsheet: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
Shouldn't be surprising that one of today's predictions is Kenny Golladay. Each May when I crawl out of my fantasy hibernating hole and start doing research again, I consciously avoid looking at ADPs and expert rankings. Instead, I slowly start to assemble my own rankings. Then around mid-June, right before restarting these blog posts, I scan others' rankings to put mine in perspective.
So I was shocked a couple months ago to find that Golladay wasn't a universal top-12 WR. Last year he had seven games with 17+ points. To put that in perspective, Keenan Allen had eight. T.Y. Hilton had only six. Only 25 years old and now Detroit's clear-cut #1 receiver, Golladay is ascending. He was 10th in the league last year in 20+ yard pass plays (19 total) despite a relatively muted 119 targets. The Lions' offense as a whole was a bottom-10 mess last year. They leaned way too much on LeGarrette Blount, who somehow earned 154 carries despite averaging what I assume was a league-worst 2.7 YPC. Marvin Jones played barely half the season. The tight end situation was atrocious.
So yes, with a better running game and better/healthier complementary receivers, Golladay has room to grow.
His overall ADP (42) and positional ADP (WR-18) make him a huge draft bargain. Meanwhile, an astounding 103 out of 104 experts rank him outside the top 12 (and that last expert ranks him 12th). I'm picking Golladay to finish in the top 12.
On the flip side, I thought the Ravens made a mistake signing Mark Ingram to a three-year contract. The deal isn't horrible. And yes, Ingram is a proven #1 back. But their backfield wasn't a problem. And from a fantasy perspective, some intangibles make Ingram's RB-22 ADP incredibly risky. (By the way, his overall ADP is only three spots behind Golladay's. Later this year, we'll see why this ADP gap should have been much wider.)
Ingram will be 30 in December. He's missed 3+ games in five of eight NFL seasons. Lamar Jackson will run the ball a lot. Gus Edwards (5.2 YPC last season) won't ride the pine all year. And rookie Justice Hill is also a threat for touches.
For Ingram to meet or exceed expectations, he'll need to play 15+ games (the odds are not in his favor), earn a sizable role in the passing game, and secure about 16+ touches a game. And remember, this isn't New Orleans' high-powered offense, where Ingram thrived for years. This is a three-down, move-the-chains offense. Sounds good on paper, and it's a winning formula for Baltimore. But it won't help Ingram's fantasy managers as much as they think.
93 of 105 experts (89%) rank Ingram in the top 28. I can see why, but I'm not on board. Ingram won't be a top-28 RB this year, and if I had to bet, I'd say he won't be the Ravens' clear #1 RB next year.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Spreadsheet: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W