As most of you know, I started FF4W in large part because I was tired of play-it-safe predictions. If you look back in the archives at my first 20-or-so posts in 2013, about half of them were "bold predictions" that challenged conventional wisdom. Most of those predictions came true, including the sharp decline of universal #1 overall Adrian Peterson and the sharp ascendance of universal top 20-30 WR Antonio Brown.
Each season, these contrarian predictions are designed as departures from the group-think that plagues the fantasy world. Most fantasy experts are, I believe, scared to offer uniquely bold perspectives, because they don't want to look stupid. But I already know I'm stupid. About a lot of things. Fantasy success is not built on 90% accuracy. Even the seemingly easiest predictions don't always work out. And I get a lot of things wrong because of injuries, demotions, or sometimes simply misreading the situation.
The key is whether, on balance, these contrarian predictions help or hurt fantasy managers. If you implemented my thinking on three predictions last preseason, and if you were better off because of it on two of them, well that's great to hear. If instead all three turned out bad for you, that's obviously bad for me too. I have to earn your trust, and making bold statements are the riskiest way to do it.
But the alternative--stating the obvious--is pointless.
So with that in mind, here are my first two contrarian preseason predictions of 2019. I'll start with Jimmy Garoppolo, whose QB-21 ADP is 100% insane. I can't stress that enough. And it hasn't even changed in the past month, so fantasy managers have been sleeping on him all summer. Last year he owned a QB-9 ADP, and I warned that he was overvalued. But a 21 ranking? Sure, he's coming of a serious injury. But so much has changed since last year, particularly the development of 2018 rookie Dante Pettis, the transformation of the previously statistically muted George Kittle, the departure of the talent-challenged Pierre Garcon, and less reliance on the overutilized Kendrick Bourne. Add in Deebo Samuel, a healthy Marquise Goodwin, and a retooled backfield loaded with pass-catchers, and . . . really, what are people thinking?
Garoppolo's ranked even worse--22nd--based on Fantasy Pros' composite of 102 fantasy experts. 92% rank him outside the top 14. I have yet to see a remotely convincing argument why--why someone with all the tools to be a franchise-caliber QB is widely viewed as a bottom-third fantasy option. This oversight is a reminder that great players coming off bad or injury-plagued seasons often don't get the attention they deserve. People have short attention spans, and again, they're often hesitant to look beyond the numbers to a more complex reality.
And that's why, as subscribers to my rankings already know, Garoppolo will be a top-14 fantasy QB.
It's only fitting that my second prediction highlight a QB on the other end of the spectrum. While there's little doubt Baker Mayfield is the real deal, his QB-5 ADP assumes the kind of dominance I'm not ready to accept, especially at such a deep position. The addition of OBJ, plus a full season of Nick Chubb (and perhaps half a season of Kareem Hunt) will give Mayfield a supremely talented Big 3 or 4, in addition to TE David Njoku and #3 wideout Antonio Callaway.
Fantasy experts generally love Mayfield. More than half of the 102 compiled by Fantasy Pros place him in the top 6, while 96% list him in the top 10. I'm predicting he'll finish outside the top 10. In short, with at least 20 QBs having legit top-10 potential, there's no compelling reason to draft him anywhere close to his universal ranking.
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Each season, these contrarian predictions are designed as departures from the group-think that plagues the fantasy world. Most fantasy experts are, I believe, scared to offer uniquely bold perspectives, because they don't want to look stupid. But I already know I'm stupid. About a lot of things. Fantasy success is not built on 90% accuracy. Even the seemingly easiest predictions don't always work out. And I get a lot of things wrong because of injuries, demotions, or sometimes simply misreading the situation.
The key is whether, on balance, these contrarian predictions help or hurt fantasy managers. If you implemented my thinking on three predictions last preseason, and if you were better off because of it on two of them, well that's great to hear. If instead all three turned out bad for you, that's obviously bad for me too. I have to earn your trust, and making bold statements are the riskiest way to do it.
But the alternative--stating the obvious--is pointless.
So with that in mind, here are my first two contrarian preseason predictions of 2019. I'll start with Jimmy Garoppolo, whose QB-21 ADP is 100% insane. I can't stress that enough. And it hasn't even changed in the past month, so fantasy managers have been sleeping on him all summer. Last year he owned a QB-9 ADP, and I warned that he was overvalued. But a 21 ranking? Sure, he's coming of a serious injury. But so much has changed since last year, particularly the development of 2018 rookie Dante Pettis, the transformation of the previously statistically muted George Kittle, the departure of the talent-challenged Pierre Garcon, and less reliance on the overutilized Kendrick Bourne. Add in Deebo Samuel, a healthy Marquise Goodwin, and a retooled backfield loaded with pass-catchers, and . . . really, what are people thinking?
Garoppolo's ranked even worse--22nd--based on Fantasy Pros' composite of 102 fantasy experts. 92% rank him outside the top 14. I have yet to see a remotely convincing argument why--why someone with all the tools to be a franchise-caliber QB is widely viewed as a bottom-third fantasy option. This oversight is a reminder that great players coming off bad or injury-plagued seasons often don't get the attention they deserve. People have short attention spans, and again, they're often hesitant to look beyond the numbers to a more complex reality.
And that's why, as subscribers to my rankings already know, Garoppolo will be a top-14 fantasy QB.
It's only fitting that my second prediction highlight a QB on the other end of the spectrum. While there's little doubt Baker Mayfield is the real deal, his QB-5 ADP assumes the kind of dominance I'm not ready to accept, especially at such a deep position. The addition of OBJ, plus a full season of Nick Chubb (and perhaps half a season of Kareem Hunt) will give Mayfield a supremely talented Big 3 or 4, in addition to TE David Njoku and #3 wideout Antonio Callaway.
Fantasy experts generally love Mayfield. More than half of the 102 compiled by Fantasy Pros place him in the top 6, while 96% list him in the top 10. I'm predicting he'll finish outside the top 10. In short, with at least 20 QBs having legit top-10 potential, there's no compelling reason to draft him anywhere close to his universal ranking.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W