The Ezekiel Elliott saga is more interesting than the Melvin Gordon saga. Gordon will be a free agent in 2020. The Chargers get nothing if they let him walk, and they have a capable enough backfield to not pay their disgruntled starter. Gordon wants $10 million or more per year. The Chargers could find other great uses for that money, such as trading Gordon for one or two valuable assets (for example, a defensive replacement for injured SS Derwin James).
Zeke, on the other hand, is a complicated case with huge fantasy implications. He won't be a free agent 'til 2021, and then the team can franchise him to keep him under control 'til 2022. The Cowboys hold almost all the cards. True, their backfield is a bigger question mark and the Chargers', with no proven options besides the one-dimensional post-prime Alfred Morris. But equipped once again with an elite offensive line, Dallas can turn even middling RBs into solid producers.
And the possible heir-apparent to Zeke, fourth-round rookie Tony Pollard, is no middling RB. The biggest knock on him is the unknown: Can he carry the ball at least 12 times a game? That plus 3-4 catches (realistic, since pass-catching is one of his strengths) would put him on pace for around 250 touches. From a fantasy perspective, that's all you need for RB2+ production. Except Pollard's biggest college workload was in his senior year: 78 rushes and 39 receptions. Rather than draft him as a true handcuff, realistically he might be part of a timeshare with someone like Alfred Morris if Zeke remains out, with Morris/others earning 5-10 carries. Basically, while most people think Pollard is a lock for a big load, I’m not there yet.
So let's speculate on Zeke's future in Dallas. Suppose he remains in Cabo as September rolls around, and the Pollard/Morris tandem is getting things done to start the season. The Cowboys' first three games are very winnable: Giants, @Redskins, and Dolphins. If Zeke returns after Pollard's already proven himself, where does that leave Zeke?
The obvious answer is, "He'll go back to being the bellcow." But I'm not so sure. Last year when James Conner started strong (then fell back, then picked back up), some--like me--publicly questioned whether Le'Veon Bell would get his bellcow role back if he returned midseason. Conner was nearly posting Bell-like numbers. And he was cheap. And he was a good teammate. Even before last season started, Pittsburgh guard Ramon Foster shared his feelings about Bell: "Here’s a guy who doesn’t give a damn." Throughout the fall, other teammates publicly knocked their former star RB. At a certain point, the team had moved on, and there was no realistic way Bell would be welcomed back and handed his old role.
Like Bell, Zeke's been suspended, and arguably should have been suspended again. Like Bell, he's both gifted and a headache. Unlike Bell, he's not going anywhere soon unless Jerry Jones wants him gone.
But those drafting him in the first or even second round are betting against the odds. They're eyeing elite RB production whenever Zeke decides it's time to come home. While it might work out that way, it's not that simple. Last night I dropped him another seven RB spots and 19 overall spots on my draft board, down to an RB-16 / Overall-38 ranking compared to a bizarrely optimistic 4/4 ADP.
Don't get me wrong: He'll be the starter if he returns; he's earned that, and no one on this roster is better equipped to carry the load. But assuming Pollard distinguishes himself, Zeke--more than at any time in his career--will have to yield meaningful touches to a capable backup. And that will make him a back-end RB1 at best . . . when he decides to play football again.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
Zeke, on the other hand, is a complicated case with huge fantasy implications. He won't be a free agent 'til 2021, and then the team can franchise him to keep him under control 'til 2022. The Cowboys hold almost all the cards. True, their backfield is a bigger question mark and the Chargers', with no proven options besides the one-dimensional post-prime Alfred Morris. But equipped once again with an elite offensive line, Dallas can turn even middling RBs into solid producers.
And the possible heir-apparent to Zeke, fourth-round rookie Tony Pollard, is no middling RB. The biggest knock on him is the unknown: Can he carry the ball at least 12 times a game? That plus 3-4 catches (realistic, since pass-catching is one of his strengths) would put him on pace for around 250 touches. From a fantasy perspective, that's all you need for RB2+ production. Except Pollard's biggest college workload was in his senior year: 78 rushes and 39 receptions. Rather than draft him as a true handcuff, realistically he might be part of a timeshare with someone like Alfred Morris if Zeke remains out, with Morris/others earning 5-10 carries. Basically, while most people think Pollard is a lock for a big load, I’m not there yet.
So let's speculate on Zeke's future in Dallas. Suppose he remains in Cabo as September rolls around, and the Pollard/Morris tandem is getting things done to start the season. The Cowboys' first three games are very winnable: Giants, @Redskins, and Dolphins. If Zeke returns after Pollard's already proven himself, where does that leave Zeke?
The obvious answer is, "He'll go back to being the bellcow." But I'm not so sure. Last year when James Conner started strong (then fell back, then picked back up), some--like me--publicly questioned whether Le'Veon Bell would get his bellcow role back if he returned midseason. Conner was nearly posting Bell-like numbers. And he was cheap. And he was a good teammate. Even before last season started, Pittsburgh guard Ramon Foster shared his feelings about Bell: "Here’s a guy who doesn’t give a damn." Throughout the fall, other teammates publicly knocked their former star RB. At a certain point, the team had moved on, and there was no realistic way Bell would be welcomed back and handed his old role.
Like Bell, Zeke's been suspended, and arguably should have been suspended again. Like Bell, he's both gifted and a headache. Unlike Bell, he's not going anywhere soon unless Jerry Jones wants him gone.
But those drafting him in the first or even second round are betting against the odds. They're eyeing elite RB production whenever Zeke decides it's time to come home. While it might work out that way, it's not that simple. Last night I dropped him another seven RB spots and 19 overall spots on my draft board, down to an RB-16 / Overall-38 ranking compared to a bizarrely optimistic 4/4 ADP.
Don't get me wrong: He'll be the starter if he returns; he's earned that, and no one on this roster is better equipped to carry the load. But assuming Pollard distinguishes himself, Zeke--more than at any time in his career--will have to yield meaningful touches to a capable backup. And that will make him a back-end RB1 at best . . . when he decides to play football again.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W