Around 9:15pm last night I wrapped up my Sunday morning column and scheduled its release. It began with "Although yesterday wasn't a fantasy earthquake, it was a nasty tremor" in light of Lamar Miller's injury. About 10 minutes later, the earthquake hit. Andrew Luck's retirement news is a rare event in sports history--an elite-caliber player retiring in his prime. If you invested in Colts, you've got work to do. Entering the weekend I viewed T.Y. Hilton as sharply overvalued at his WR-12 ADP (19th on my draft board), and Luck himself seemed like a stretch at his QB-6 ADP (10th on my board).
That's not to say all is lost. But the odds are unfavorable. Barring half a miracle, Jacoby Brissett will pick up where he left off in 2017, when he was the 20th best fantasy QB despite starting all 16 games. That year the Colts were 31st in offensive yards and 30th in points. T.Y. Hilton produced WR3 stats. This morning Brissett is my 25th-ranked QB. Hilton has dropped from 19th to 25th. Eric Ebron plummets to 13th. That said, I'll maintain my Deon Cain sentiments (below), since he doesn't need to do much to become a WR7/8.
With that, here's the column I was going to run with. Because aside from the short-sighted opening, it still accurately conveys my fantasy thinking.
---
Although yesterday wasn't a fantasy earthquake, it was a nasty tremor--a reminder (as if we need reminders) that fantasy fortunes can turn on one play. As of writing this, Lamar Miller's prognosis isn't known. But if it is what many expect it to be--a season-ending injury--the ripple effects are both obvious and confusing.
Before the injury, Duke Johnson was a must-draft RB in every PPR league. After the injury, Duke is a must-draft RB in every PPR league. Except now everyone knows it. Duke pushes further up my draft board, with room to grow if he's somehow named the new starter. I say "somehow" because he hasn't been a bellcow since his senior year at the University of Miami. Besides Miller and Duke, undrafted free agent Damarea Crockett has been the only other Houston RB on my rankings spreadsheet all summer. No one knows how this backfield will play out. But Crockett has the best shot at relevance in my opinion.
Other interesting news yesterday . . . Chiefs vs. Niners: Damien Williams caught a huge TD pass, though he did little on the ground. I'm still all in on Williams busting at his RB-13 / Overall-27 ADP. On the other side of the ball, Jimmy G. gave me a sigh of relief with an effective outing. And Matt Breida out-shined Tevin Coleman. While it's just one game, Breida's track record reinforces that some of the Coleman hype might be premature.
Jets vs. Saints: None of New Orleans' "Big Three" got hurt, so that's important. And one of my favorite 2019 bargains, Ty Montgomery, lost a fumble and found the end zone. That's an entirely reasonable trade-off in the fantasy world. And keep in mind he's lost only one fumble on 299 career regular-season touches. Montgomery's overall ADP is 246. He's 133 on my draft board. Full stop. And nice to see Robby Anderson getting some good run.
Colts vs. Bears: FF4W rankings subscribers know how high I've been on Deon Cain. His ADP is WR-101 / 316-Overall. Ridiculous. A week ago I listed him at 66/208. Today he's 65/208, with a clear path to roughly 50/150 if Devin Funchess disappoints.
Finally, that Cowboys/Texans game: In addition to Lamar Miller, lineman Zach Fulton also was carted off. Although Fulton's injury eventually was diagnosed as turf toe, it was enough to push DeShaun Watson to the sidelines earlier than expected. And for Dallas, Tony Pollard was adequate enough to enter Week 1 as, presumably, the Cowboys' 1A RB if Zeke Elliott remains in Mexico.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
That's not to say all is lost. But the odds are unfavorable. Barring half a miracle, Jacoby Brissett will pick up where he left off in 2017, when he was the 20th best fantasy QB despite starting all 16 games. That year the Colts were 31st in offensive yards and 30th in points. T.Y. Hilton produced WR3 stats. This morning Brissett is my 25th-ranked QB. Hilton has dropped from 19th to 25th. Eric Ebron plummets to 13th. That said, I'll maintain my Deon Cain sentiments (below), since he doesn't need to do much to become a WR7/8.
With that, here's the column I was going to run with. Because aside from the short-sighted opening, it still accurately conveys my fantasy thinking.
---
Although yesterday wasn't a fantasy earthquake, it was a nasty tremor--a reminder (as if we need reminders) that fantasy fortunes can turn on one play. As of writing this, Lamar Miller's prognosis isn't known. But if it is what many expect it to be--a season-ending injury--the ripple effects are both obvious and confusing.
Before the injury, Duke Johnson was a must-draft RB in every PPR league. After the injury, Duke is a must-draft RB in every PPR league. Except now everyone knows it. Duke pushes further up my draft board, with room to grow if he's somehow named the new starter. I say "somehow" because he hasn't been a bellcow since his senior year at the University of Miami. Besides Miller and Duke, undrafted free agent Damarea Crockett has been the only other Houston RB on my rankings spreadsheet all summer. No one knows how this backfield will play out. But Crockett has the best shot at relevance in my opinion.
Other interesting news yesterday . . . Chiefs vs. Niners: Damien Williams caught a huge TD pass, though he did little on the ground. I'm still all in on Williams busting at his RB-13 / Overall-27 ADP. On the other side of the ball, Jimmy G. gave me a sigh of relief with an effective outing. And Matt Breida out-shined Tevin Coleman. While it's just one game, Breida's track record reinforces that some of the Coleman hype might be premature.
Jets vs. Saints: None of New Orleans' "Big Three" got hurt, so that's important. And one of my favorite 2019 bargains, Ty Montgomery, lost a fumble and found the end zone. That's an entirely reasonable trade-off in the fantasy world. And keep in mind he's lost only one fumble on 299 career regular-season touches. Montgomery's overall ADP is 246. He's 133 on my draft board. Full stop. And nice to see Robby Anderson getting some good run.
Colts vs. Bears: FF4W rankings subscribers know how high I've been on Deon Cain. His ADP is WR-101 / 316-Overall. Ridiculous. A week ago I listed him at 66/208. Today he's 65/208, with a clear path to roughly 50/150 if Devin Funchess disappoints.
Finally, that Cowboys/Texans game: In addition to Lamar Miller, lineman Zach Fulton also was carted off. Although Fulton's injury eventually was diagnosed as turf toe, it was enough to push DeShaun Watson to the sidelines earlier than expected. And for Dallas, Tony Pollard was adequate enough to enter Week 1 as, presumably, the Cowboys' 1A RB if Zeke Elliott remains in Mexico.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W