Who had the most touches per game in 2016? David Johnson, followed by Zeke Elliott and DeMarco Murray, and Le'Veon Bell. Johnson missed essentially the entire next season, while Murray's numbers plummeted.
Who had the most touches per game in 2017? Le'Veon Bell, followed by Zeke Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and Dalvin Cook. Bell sat out all of 2018, while Fournette, Gurley, Gordon, and Cook battled injuries.
Who had the most touches per game in 2018? Zeke, followed by Gurley and Saquon Barkley. And Gordon was on pace for a pretty hefty workload if he'd been able to stay on the field.
I don't think it's a coincidence that Bell sat all of last year, or that Zeke and Gordon are holding out this year. All three have endured larger-than-normal workloads during their careers. Sure, they all stated their holdouts were/are about money, not fear of injury or diminished near-term ability. But the these factor are connected. And history shows RB over-usage is a huge red flag when projecting health and/or productivity for the following season.
I've preached this for years, but only anecdotally. I've mentioned cautionary tales like James Wilder and Larry Johnson more than once on this page. But this summer I resolved to test it with quantitative research. Are Wilder and Johnson exceptions to the rule, or do they reflect a larger trend?
I could write about this for 2,000 words, but will save you the hassle and get right to the main points. The following analysis is based on 164 of the 184 times a running back earned 350+ touches in a season. I excluded all performances from 1977 (because the NFL expanded from 14 to 16 games in '78), 1981 (because of the strike-shortened 1982 season), and 1986 (because the 1987 strike limited most NFL regulars to 12-13 games). I also excluded players who were suspended or who held out for one or more games the following season, as well as players who retired the following season (even if that player returned later that season or in future seasons, like Ricky Williams). And finally, the study excluded last year's 350+ touch efforts by Barkley and Zeke, since we obviously don't yet have data for 2019.
(1) In the season following a 350+ touch campaign, RBs' production dropped, on average, from 306.8 fantasy points to 238.7 fantasy points--a 68.1 (22%) point drop. Following a 400+ touch campaign, RBs' production dropped, on average, from 347.6 fantasy points to 250.9 fantasy points--a 96.7 point (28%) drop. When factoring heavy-usage seasons by RBs at least 28 years old, the average point drop directly after a 350+ touch campaign was 78.2 points (26%), and 83 points (25%) after a 400+ touch campaign.
(2) 72% of RBs scored fewer fantasy points the season after a 350+ touch campaign, vs. 80% who scored fewer points the season after a 400+ touch campaign. Among RBs at least 28 years old, 79% scored fewer fantasy points directly after a 350+ touch campaign, while 89% scored less directly after a 400+ touch campaign.
(3) RBs averaged 1.9 fewer games played the season after a 350+ touch campaign, as well as the season after a 400+ touch campaign. Among RBs at least 28 years old, they averaged 2.2 fewer games after a 350+ touch campaign, and only one less game after a 400+ touch campaign.
(4) Among all RBs who have earned 350+ touch campaigns in consecutive seasons (at least two in a row), in that first of multiple 350+ touch seasons they averaged 295.6 fantasy points. In their second consecutive 350+ touch season they averaged 310.5 fantasy points. In their third consecutive 350+ touch season they averaged 310.4 fantasy points. In their fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh consecutive 350+ touch seasons they averaged, respectively, 285.6, 361.7, 335, and 314.8 fantasy points.
(5) A small group of "special" RBs have defied heavy-usage trends, showing minimal and/or rare declines in production despite repeated 350+ touch seasons: Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Edgerrin James, Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, and Walter Payton. In the season following a 350+ touch campaign, these RBs' production dropped, on average, from 311.7 fantasy points to 288.6 fantasy points--a mere 23.1 point (7%) drop.
Much more could be said, but these key takeaways--and the charts below--say it all. Some RBs have been able to withstand the physical punishment of heavy usage. But most look all-too-human the following season. The numbers don't lie. So put this in your toolbox and keep it handy the next time you have to make a tough call on drafting or trading for a heavy-usage RB.
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Who had the most touches per game in 2017? Le'Veon Bell, followed by Zeke Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and Dalvin Cook. Bell sat out all of 2018, while Fournette, Gurley, Gordon, and Cook battled injuries.
Who had the most touches per game in 2018? Zeke, followed by Gurley and Saquon Barkley. And Gordon was on pace for a pretty hefty workload if he'd been able to stay on the field.
I don't think it's a coincidence that Bell sat all of last year, or that Zeke and Gordon are holding out this year. All three have endured larger-than-normal workloads during their careers. Sure, they all stated their holdouts were/are about money, not fear of injury or diminished near-term ability. But the these factor are connected. And history shows RB over-usage is a huge red flag when projecting health and/or productivity for the following season.
I've preached this for years, but only anecdotally. I've mentioned cautionary tales like James Wilder and Larry Johnson more than once on this page. But this summer I resolved to test it with quantitative research. Are Wilder and Johnson exceptions to the rule, or do they reflect a larger trend?
I could write about this for 2,000 words, but will save you the hassle and get right to the main points. The following analysis is based on 164 of the 184 times a running back earned 350+ touches in a season. I excluded all performances from 1977 (because the NFL expanded from 14 to 16 games in '78), 1981 (because of the strike-shortened 1982 season), and 1986 (because the 1987 strike limited most NFL regulars to 12-13 games). I also excluded players who were suspended or who held out for one or more games the following season, as well as players who retired the following season (even if that player returned later that season or in future seasons, like Ricky Williams). And finally, the study excluded last year's 350+ touch efforts by Barkley and Zeke, since we obviously don't yet have data for 2019.
(1) In the season following a 350+ touch campaign, RBs' production dropped, on average, from 306.8 fantasy points to 238.7 fantasy points--a 68.1 (22%) point drop. Following a 400+ touch campaign, RBs' production dropped, on average, from 347.6 fantasy points to 250.9 fantasy points--a 96.7 point (28%) drop. When factoring heavy-usage seasons by RBs at least 28 years old, the average point drop directly after a 350+ touch campaign was 78.2 points (26%), and 83 points (25%) after a 400+ touch campaign.
(2) 72% of RBs scored fewer fantasy points the season after a 350+ touch campaign, vs. 80% who scored fewer points the season after a 400+ touch campaign. Among RBs at least 28 years old, 79% scored fewer fantasy points directly after a 350+ touch campaign, while 89% scored less directly after a 400+ touch campaign.
(3) RBs averaged 1.9 fewer games played the season after a 350+ touch campaign, as well as the season after a 400+ touch campaign. Among RBs at least 28 years old, they averaged 2.2 fewer games after a 350+ touch campaign, and only one less game after a 400+ touch campaign.
(4) Among all RBs who have earned 350+ touch campaigns in consecutive seasons (at least two in a row), in that first of multiple 350+ touch seasons they averaged 295.6 fantasy points. In their second consecutive 350+ touch season they averaged 310.5 fantasy points. In their third consecutive 350+ touch season they averaged 310.4 fantasy points. In their fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh consecutive 350+ touch seasons they averaged, respectively, 285.6, 361.7, 335, and 314.8 fantasy points.
(5) A small group of "special" RBs have defied heavy-usage trends, showing minimal and/or rare declines in production despite repeated 350+ touch seasons: Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Edgerrin James, Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, and Walter Payton. In the season following a 350+ touch campaign, these RBs' production dropped, on average, from 311.7 fantasy points to 288.6 fantasy points--a mere 23.1 point (7%) drop.
Much more could be said, but these key takeaways--and the charts below--say it all. Some RBs have been able to withstand the physical punishment of heavy usage. But most look all-too-human the following season. The numbers don't lie. So put this in your toolbox and keep it handy the next time you have to make a tough call on drafting or trading for a heavy-usage RB.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
