Fantasy football is an incredible strategy game, in part because each position has strengths and weaknesses. There are no one-size-fits-all approaches. There's nothing to "solve." There are only risk-and-reward probabilities to assess. If your assessment skills are better than all of your opponents', you'll have a great shot at the title.
This week I've presented 2015-2018 ADP and fantasy scoring data for QBs and RBs. I'm not that adept at Excel, so apologies for the aesthetically unappealing charts to reinforce my points. But hopefully what comes through are the inherent opportunities and challenges when investing in QBs and RBs. QBs' floors are generally solid. It's highly rare for QB1s or QB2s to get replaced midseason unless they're physically unable to play. And plenty of preseason QB2s outperform preseason QB1s. Yet if you land an elite QB, you've earned a significant advantage over most of the competition.
On the other hand, most top-scoring RBs were also preseason RB1s. And while it's not uncommon to draft an eventual elite or near-elite QB in the middle rounds or later, it's incredibly rare to find an eventual elite or near-elite RB in the middle rounds or later. Still, the RB pool is incredibly large; 75 players or more have a decent-to-excellent shot at fantasy relevance at some point during the season. Whereas it can be difficult to upgrade at QB on waivers, midseason RB replacements are plentiful.
So where do WRs fit in? What makes them special . . . and unlovable? As with QBs and RBs, the following data features every WR scorer (about 800 total) and ADPs for each year's top 50 preseason WRs, spanning 2015-2018.
First, the "WR Fantasy Points" graph presents a fairly straightforward picture: most of the highest WR scorers these past four years were preseason top-16 WRs, and most of the worst scorers had ADPs outside the top 40. Something to keep in mind (and something I harp on every year): it's rare for a team's preseason #1 or #2 wideout to be demoted during the year. Their Achilles' heels are often either injuries or bad QB play. The ramifications of this reality will be clearer on the following charts.
The next set of results is titled "WR Average Scoring Rank Based on Preseason Positional ADP." And wow. This is the starkest example yet of preseason ADPs making sense. Preseason WR1s and WR2s, on average, fair far better than preseason WR3s and WR4s. Why? In addition to the fact that demotions are rare, teams' #1 and #2 WRs often (and I suspect usually) earn more targets than their teams' other receivers. And more targets usually translates into more receptions, yards, etc. And this is what we see here. The highest-ranked preseason WRs are not guaranteed to shine. But they're a safer bet than RBs.
For example, in the past four years, top-10 preseason RBs average 211 points and a scoring rank of 28th. Top-10 preseason WRs average 239 points and a scoring rank of 23rd. The gap between the top 11-20 preseason RBs and top 11-20 preseason WRs is even wider.
So while the best fantasy WRs generally don't score as many points as the best fantasy RBs, they're a safer investment. That's the pro and con in a nutshell: Do you want a higher probability of fewer points, or a smaller probability of more points? And keep in compared to RBs, midseason replacement WRs are harder to come by.
Finally, let's look at the four charts called "Expected Performers and Surprise Performers," separated by the top 50 WR scorers, the top 25, the top 10, and the top 5. The X axis signifies the top fantasy scorers. The top-50 chart shows only two surprise top-15 finishers--i.e. two top-15 wideouts who were ranked outside the top 50 right before the start of the season. By comparison, six RBs with ADPs above 50 have finished in the top 15. So this reinforces the theory that great WRs are more reliable than great RBs, while off-the-radar WRs are less likely to reach weekly-fantasy-starter status than off-the-radar RBs. We can draw similar conclusions with the top-25 charts: only one WR with an ADP above 25 has finished inside the top 6, while six RBs can make the same claim. And while seven of 25 (28%) preseason top-5 QBs and RBs have been top-5 fantasy scorers, nine of 25 WRs (36%) have achieved that feat.
So to summarize, based on the past four seasons, WR1s and even WR2s offer lower risks than their QB and RB counterparts, and also (on balance) lower rewards. A strong case could be made for drafting two WRs with top-5 potential in the first and second rounds, landing a fairly safe RB2 and near-elite TE in the third/fourth rounds, streaming a pair of middle-round QBs with weekly QB1 upside, and loading up on mammoth-upside RB3s, 4s, and 5s who are one lead-back injury away from a bellcow role.
Of course, the point is that there's no perfect approach. Draft flow dictates some decisions; risk-taking dictates others. But it's important to understand that while finding a potential RB1 late in drafts or even on waivers is entirely doable, finding a WR1 that late in the game is nearly impossible.
Tomorrow I'll offer some TE analysis . . .
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
This week I've presented 2015-2018 ADP and fantasy scoring data for QBs and RBs. I'm not that adept at Excel, so apologies for the aesthetically unappealing charts to reinforce my points. But hopefully what comes through are the inherent opportunities and challenges when investing in QBs and RBs. QBs' floors are generally solid. It's highly rare for QB1s or QB2s to get replaced midseason unless they're physically unable to play. And plenty of preseason QB2s outperform preseason QB1s. Yet if you land an elite QB, you've earned a significant advantage over most of the competition.
On the other hand, most top-scoring RBs were also preseason RB1s. And while it's not uncommon to draft an eventual elite or near-elite QB in the middle rounds or later, it's incredibly rare to find an eventual elite or near-elite RB in the middle rounds or later. Still, the RB pool is incredibly large; 75 players or more have a decent-to-excellent shot at fantasy relevance at some point during the season. Whereas it can be difficult to upgrade at QB on waivers, midseason RB replacements are plentiful.
So where do WRs fit in? What makes them special . . . and unlovable? As with QBs and RBs, the following data features every WR scorer (about 800 total) and ADPs for each year's top 50 preseason WRs, spanning 2015-2018.
First, the "WR Fantasy Points" graph presents a fairly straightforward picture: most of the highest WR scorers these past four years were preseason top-16 WRs, and most of the worst scorers had ADPs outside the top 40. Something to keep in mind (and something I harp on every year): it's rare for a team's preseason #1 or #2 wideout to be demoted during the year. Their Achilles' heels are often either injuries or bad QB play. The ramifications of this reality will be clearer on the following charts.
The next set of results is titled "WR Average Scoring Rank Based on Preseason Positional ADP." And wow. This is the starkest example yet of preseason ADPs making sense. Preseason WR1s and WR2s, on average, fair far better than preseason WR3s and WR4s. Why? In addition to the fact that demotions are rare, teams' #1 and #2 WRs often (and I suspect usually) earn more targets than their teams' other receivers. And more targets usually translates into more receptions, yards, etc. And this is what we see here. The highest-ranked preseason WRs are not guaranteed to shine. But they're a safer bet than RBs.
For example, in the past four years, top-10 preseason RBs average 211 points and a scoring rank of 28th. Top-10 preseason WRs average 239 points and a scoring rank of 23rd. The gap between the top 11-20 preseason RBs and top 11-20 preseason WRs is even wider.
So while the best fantasy WRs generally don't score as many points as the best fantasy RBs, they're a safer investment. That's the pro and con in a nutshell: Do you want a higher probability of fewer points, or a smaller probability of more points? And keep in compared to RBs, midseason replacement WRs are harder to come by.
Finally, let's look at the four charts called "Expected Performers and Surprise Performers," separated by the top 50 WR scorers, the top 25, the top 10, and the top 5. The X axis signifies the top fantasy scorers. The top-50 chart shows only two surprise top-15 finishers--i.e. two top-15 wideouts who were ranked outside the top 50 right before the start of the season. By comparison, six RBs with ADPs above 50 have finished in the top 15. So this reinforces the theory that great WRs are more reliable than great RBs, while off-the-radar WRs are less likely to reach weekly-fantasy-starter status than off-the-radar RBs. We can draw similar conclusions with the top-25 charts: only one WR with an ADP above 25 has finished inside the top 6, while six RBs can make the same claim. And while seven of 25 (28%) preseason top-5 QBs and RBs have been top-5 fantasy scorers, nine of 25 WRs (36%) have achieved that feat.
So to summarize, based on the past four seasons, WR1s and even WR2s offer lower risks than their QB and RB counterparts, and also (on balance) lower rewards. A strong case could be made for drafting two WRs with top-5 potential in the first and second rounds, landing a fairly safe RB2 and near-elite TE in the third/fourth rounds, streaming a pair of middle-round QBs with weekly QB1 upside, and loading up on mammoth-upside RB3s, 4s, and 5s who are one lead-back injury away from a bellcow role.
Of course, the point is that there's no perfect approach. Draft flow dictates some decisions; risk-taking dictates others. But it's important to understand that while finding a potential RB1 late in drafts or even on waivers is entirely doable, finding a WR1 that late in the game is nearly impossible.
Tomorrow I'll offer some TE analysis . . .
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
