In FF4W's early days (not that long ago), I'd post columns at fairly random times in the morning--whenever I could get around to it. Then a couple years ago I adopted a roughly standard 8:00am-8:45am posting routine on weekdays, and a couple hours later on weekends.
Last year I locked in 8:30am weekdays and 9:30am weekends. As of today, I'm changing it again: 6:00am seven days a week. The reality is, I write columns the night before or between 5:00am and 6:00am, so it doesn't make sense to schedule it for later.
This change probably won't impact most of you. But if it makes it easier for some of you, terrific.
And while we're on the subject, some of you tell me every year you don't see these posts when they hit. If this happens to you, click the "Following" button next to the "Liked" button near the top of the FF4W Facebook page. You'll have the option of adjusting notifications as well as where you see FF4W columns in your news feed. Most of us have more important things than fantasy football in your life, so this isn't a hard pitch to make FF4W your #1 morning read. But if you want to see it more regularly, that's how to do it. And if you want to see it less regularly, put down your phone and take more long walks.
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This week I've presented 2015-2018 ADP and fantasy scoring data for QBs, RBs, and WRs. I won't bore all of you with kicker and DST breakdowns tomorrow, but might share them later this season during a slow news day. (And if this stuff is interesting, I'll share other interesting analysis on other topics later this month.)
Typically if you're strong at QB, RB, and WR, you've got as good a shot (or better) as anyone to win the title. That said, TEs can be difference makers. The big question is the extent to which TE performance is predictable. We've already seen how plenty of preseason QB2s outperform preseason QB1s, how preseason RB4s on average outperform preseason RB3s, and how rare it is for an undraftable WR to finish in the top 20. So where do TEs fit in?
As with QBs, RBs, and WRs, the following data features every TE scorer (about 450 total) and ADPs for each year's top 50 preseason TEs, spanning 2015-2018.
First, the "TE Fantasy Points" graph is what any casual fantasy manager would expect: most of the highest TE scorers these past four years were preseason TE1s, with a few surprises in the 22-26 range. As with WRs, it's rare for a team's preseason #1 TE to be demoted during the year. Injuries or bad QB play are their kryptonite, while end-zone targets can make or break the season of any preseason back-end TE1 or TE2.
The next set of results is titled "TE Average Scoring Rank Based on Preseason Positional ADP." Again, there's very little surprising here. With one exception, the average top-8 preseason TE has performed better than any other grouping. The graph also demonstrates that the top 10-13 TEs have often provided value to managers. In fact, they've averaged 140 points per season, while the top 4-7 preseason TEs have averaged only 133 points. I'm cherry-picking a little bit, since we're talking about only four seasons of data. But it's important to understand that in recent years, on average, drafting a TE right outside the top tier has yielded fewer points than waiting until the end of a draft to snag a back-end TE1 or high-end TE2.
And once we get past the top 20 ADP TEs, the end-of-year rankings get significantly higher. Finding a diamond in the rough beyond the top 20 is rare, though no impossible. These past four years, nine TEs ranked outside the top 20 have posted TE1 numbers, and seven of them have finished in the top 7. And if you've been reading my columns and tweets this summer, you've heard me push several guys in the 20s and even 30s, including the 21st-ranked Jordan Reed (15th highest scorer last year; 9th in 2016), the 26th-ranked Jason Witten (future Hall-of-Famer with some gas left in the tank), the 27th-ranked Tyler Eifert (comes down to health), and the ascending 37th-ranked Matt LaCosse. This research suggests if you miss out on an elite or near-elite option, it's better to take a chance on someone with you final pick than burn a middle-round selection on a back-end TE1.
This sensibility is reinforced by the final four charts called "Expected Performers and Surprise Performers," separated by the top 50 TE scorers, the top 25, the top 10, and the top 5. The top-25 chart shows that five TEs outside the preseason top-25 actually finished in the top 8--a higher total than we saw with QBs (2) and WRs (4). And while two #1 QBs and two #1 RBs--and even a #1 WR--originated outside the top 10 ADP these past four seasons, #1 TEs have been easier to anticipate, with each one owning a top-10 preseason designation.
This is all a lot to take in, and we don't have a large enough data set to define patterns as trends. But there are some clear areas to explore, and hopefully we can add more seasons to this data in future years to paint a fuller picture of how ADPs correlate with performance for these four core fantasy positions.
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Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
This change probably won't impact most of you. But if it makes it easier for some of you, terrific.
And while we're on the subject, some of you tell me every year you don't see these posts when they hit. If this happens to you, click the "Following" button next to the "Liked" button near the top of the FF4W Facebook page. You'll have the option of adjusting notifications as well as where you see FF4W columns in your news feed. Most of us have more important things than fantasy football in your life, so this isn't a hard pitch to make FF4W your #1 morning read. But if you want to see it more regularly, that's how to do it. And if you want to see it less regularly, put down your phone and take more long walks.
---
This week I've presented 2015-2018 ADP and fantasy scoring data for QBs, RBs, and WRs. I won't bore all of you with kicker and DST breakdowns tomorrow, but might share them later this season during a slow news day. (And if this stuff is interesting, I'll share other interesting analysis on other topics later this month.)
Typically if you're strong at QB, RB, and WR, you've got as good a shot (or better) as anyone to win the title. That said, TEs can be difference makers. The big question is the extent to which TE performance is predictable. We've already seen how plenty of preseason QB2s outperform preseason QB1s, how preseason RB4s on average outperform preseason RB3s, and how rare it is for an undraftable WR to finish in the top 20. So where do TEs fit in?
As with QBs, RBs, and WRs, the following data features every TE scorer (about 450 total) and ADPs for each year's top 50 preseason TEs, spanning 2015-2018.
First, the "TE Fantasy Points" graph is what any casual fantasy manager would expect: most of the highest TE scorers these past four years were preseason TE1s, with a few surprises in the 22-26 range. As with WRs, it's rare for a team's preseason #1 TE to be demoted during the year. Injuries or bad QB play are their kryptonite, while end-zone targets can make or break the season of any preseason back-end TE1 or TE2.
The next set of results is titled "TE Average Scoring Rank Based on Preseason Positional ADP." Again, there's very little surprising here. With one exception, the average top-8 preseason TE has performed better than any other grouping. The graph also demonstrates that the top 10-13 TEs have often provided value to managers. In fact, they've averaged 140 points per season, while the top 4-7 preseason TEs have averaged only 133 points. I'm cherry-picking a little bit, since we're talking about only four seasons of data. But it's important to understand that in recent years, on average, drafting a TE right outside the top tier has yielded fewer points than waiting until the end of a draft to snag a back-end TE1 or high-end TE2.
And once we get past the top 20 ADP TEs, the end-of-year rankings get significantly higher. Finding a diamond in the rough beyond the top 20 is rare, though no impossible. These past four years, nine TEs ranked outside the top 20 have posted TE1 numbers, and seven of them have finished in the top 7. And if you've been reading my columns and tweets this summer, you've heard me push several guys in the 20s and even 30s, including the 21st-ranked Jordan Reed (15th highest scorer last year; 9th in 2016), the 26th-ranked Jason Witten (future Hall-of-Famer with some gas left in the tank), the 27th-ranked Tyler Eifert (comes down to health), and the ascending 37th-ranked Matt LaCosse. This research suggests if you miss out on an elite or near-elite option, it's better to take a chance on someone with you final pick than burn a middle-round selection on a back-end TE1.
This sensibility is reinforced by the final four charts called "Expected Performers and Surprise Performers," separated by the top 50 TE scorers, the top 25, the top 10, and the top 5. The top-25 chart shows that five TEs outside the preseason top-25 actually finished in the top 8--a higher total than we saw with QBs (2) and WRs (4). And while two #1 QBs and two #1 RBs--and even a #1 WR--originated outside the top 10 ADP these past four seasons, #1 TEs have been easier to anticipate, with each one owning a top-10 preseason designation.
This is all a lot to take in, and we don't have a large enough data set to define patterns as trends. But there are some clear areas to explore, and hopefully we can add more seasons to this data in future years to paint a fuller picture of how ADPs correlate with performance for these four core fantasy positions.
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Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
