Yesterday I offered some analysis of QBs' fantasy value based on 2015-2018 data, featuring every QB scorer and ADPs for each year's top 50 preseason QBs. Today let's delve into RBs.
First, the "RB Fantasy Points" graph looks a little different than yesterday's "QB Fantasy Points" graph. This one shows how the top scorers of the past four season consistently came from the RB1 ADP pool. Essentially, if you want a dominant RB, you'll probably need to reach fairly early. The one 300+ fantasy point scorer since 2015 who wasn't a preseason RB1 was 2015's Devonta Freeman (visible on the chart somewhat near the upper-right).
The next set of results is titled "RB Average Scoring Rank Based on Preseason Positional ADP." The graph consists of preseason positional ADP across the X axis and average scoring ranking along the Y. The number all the way to the left, "30," signifies that over the past four seasons, the top-rated preseason RB has averaged the 30th most fantasy points at season's end--10 spots worse than #1 preseason QBs. Of course, there are far more RBs in the fantasy pool, so context is important. And speaking of context, aside from #1 David Johnson's injury-laden 2017 season, the other three preseason #1's since 2015 have fared quite well.
But the risk of drafting RB1s is real, and it's arguably greater than the risk of drafting QB1s. But of course, the rewards are huge, as drafting a pair of dominant RBs in the first two rounds can make a manager a frontrunner for the title. And that's why so many of us reach for RBs. But as this chart shows, sometimes comparable value can be found among preseason RB3s and RB4s (and assuredly even lower-ranked RBs). While the odds of finding those diamonds in the rough are slimmer, the net value (say, using a 10th-round pick on a future RB1/2) is game-changing.
I should also put this graph in perspective. In addition to David Johnson, several other RBs have crashed and burned due to early-season injuries, which have skewed the numbers to make preseason RB1s appear highly risky. In fact, 13 (27%) preseason RB1s have finished 40th or worse, compared to 22 (46%) preseason RB2s who have finished 40th or worse.
But here's a shocker: 22 (46%) preseason RB3s also finished 40th or worse. In other words, these past four preseasons if you drafted an RB with an ADP from 13 to 24, he'd be just as likely finish 40th or worse than an RB with an ADP from 25 to 36.
And here's a bigger shocker: only 17 (35%) preseason RB4s finished 40th or worse. Taking that a step further, the average scoring rank of a preseason RB4 these past four seasons was 41st on an average of 139 points. RB3s, on the other hand, have averaged 46th place on 123 fantasy points. My theory is that most RB3s are starters with tenuous holds on the starting job, or glorified role players with little-to-no bellcow potential. But RB4s tend to have higher-upside players with lower floors entering Week 1. Last preseason's RB4s (based on ADP) included Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, James White, Matt Breida, and Nick Chubb. In 2016, six of the 12 RB4s finished in the top 20.
Next up are four charts called "Expected Performers and Surprise Performers," separated by the top 50 RB scorers, the top 25, the top 10, and the top 5. The X axis signifies the top 50 fantasy scorers. The top 50 RB chart looks a lot different than yesterday's top 50 QB chart. For starters, there's a lot more blue on this one, signifying more unexpected top-50 performers. See that small blue line on the left above the "4"? That's Alvin Kamara, who in early September 2017 was coming off draft boards, on average, about six rounds after second-string Saints RB Adrian Peterson and about seven rounds after first-stringer Mark Ingram.
All that blue on the top-50 chart reflects the volatility of the RB position relative to QBs. QBs are rarely demoted, and it's rare for a preseason third-stringer to start a game. With RBs, an self-respecting fantasy manager should be looking four guys deep on each team before drafting, as it's quite possible a #3 or #4 guy will have fantasy value at some point during the season. Last July 28 I wrote a column about the third- and fourth-string RBs who helped managers in 2017: Kamara, Jerick McKinnon, Kenyan Drake, Javorius Allen, Chris Carson, Chris Thompson, Rex Burkhead, Jamaal Williams, and Austin Ekeler. I then highlighted about a dozen third- and fourth-stringers who could have an impact in 2018, including James White, Nick Chubb, Justin Jackson, and Ito Smith.
We can always bank on these surprises at RB because no position is more fluid. And all four charts--the top 50, top 25, top 10, and top 5--reinforce this.
Tomorrow I'll offer some WR analysis . . .
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First, the "RB Fantasy Points" graph looks a little different than yesterday's "QB Fantasy Points" graph. This one shows how the top scorers of the past four season consistently came from the RB1 ADP pool. Essentially, if you want a dominant RB, you'll probably need to reach fairly early. The one 300+ fantasy point scorer since 2015 who wasn't a preseason RB1 was 2015's Devonta Freeman (visible on the chart somewhat near the upper-right).
The next set of results is titled "RB Average Scoring Rank Based on Preseason Positional ADP." The graph consists of preseason positional ADP across the X axis and average scoring ranking along the Y. The number all the way to the left, "30," signifies that over the past four seasons, the top-rated preseason RB has averaged the 30th most fantasy points at season's end--10 spots worse than #1 preseason QBs. Of course, there are far more RBs in the fantasy pool, so context is important. And speaking of context, aside from #1 David Johnson's injury-laden 2017 season, the other three preseason #1's since 2015 have fared quite well.
But the risk of drafting RB1s is real, and it's arguably greater than the risk of drafting QB1s. But of course, the rewards are huge, as drafting a pair of dominant RBs in the first two rounds can make a manager a frontrunner for the title. And that's why so many of us reach for RBs. But as this chart shows, sometimes comparable value can be found among preseason RB3s and RB4s (and assuredly even lower-ranked RBs). While the odds of finding those diamonds in the rough are slimmer, the net value (say, using a 10th-round pick on a future RB1/2) is game-changing.
I should also put this graph in perspective. In addition to David Johnson, several other RBs have crashed and burned due to early-season injuries, which have skewed the numbers to make preseason RB1s appear highly risky. In fact, 13 (27%) preseason RB1s have finished 40th or worse, compared to 22 (46%) preseason RB2s who have finished 40th or worse.
But here's a shocker: 22 (46%) preseason RB3s also finished 40th or worse. In other words, these past four preseasons if you drafted an RB with an ADP from 13 to 24, he'd be just as likely finish 40th or worse than an RB with an ADP from 25 to 36.
And here's a bigger shocker: only 17 (35%) preseason RB4s finished 40th or worse. Taking that a step further, the average scoring rank of a preseason RB4 these past four seasons was 41st on an average of 139 points. RB3s, on the other hand, have averaged 46th place on 123 fantasy points. My theory is that most RB3s are starters with tenuous holds on the starting job, or glorified role players with little-to-no bellcow potential. But RB4s tend to have higher-upside players with lower floors entering Week 1. Last preseason's RB4s (based on ADP) included Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, James White, Matt Breida, and Nick Chubb. In 2016, six of the 12 RB4s finished in the top 20.
Next up are four charts called "Expected Performers and Surprise Performers," separated by the top 50 RB scorers, the top 25, the top 10, and the top 5. The X axis signifies the top 50 fantasy scorers. The top 50 RB chart looks a lot different than yesterday's top 50 QB chart. For starters, there's a lot more blue on this one, signifying more unexpected top-50 performers. See that small blue line on the left above the "4"? That's Alvin Kamara, who in early September 2017 was coming off draft boards, on average, about six rounds after second-string Saints RB Adrian Peterson and about seven rounds after first-stringer Mark Ingram.
All that blue on the top-50 chart reflects the volatility of the RB position relative to QBs. QBs are rarely demoted, and it's rare for a preseason third-stringer to start a game. With RBs, an self-respecting fantasy manager should be looking four guys deep on each team before drafting, as it's quite possible a #3 or #4 guy will have fantasy value at some point during the season. Last July 28 I wrote a column about the third- and fourth-string RBs who helped managers in 2017: Kamara, Jerick McKinnon, Kenyan Drake, Javorius Allen, Chris Carson, Chris Thompson, Rex Burkhead, Jamaal Williams, and Austin Ekeler. I then highlighted about a dozen third- and fourth-stringers who could have an impact in 2018, including James White, Nick Chubb, Justin Jackson, and Ito Smith.
We can always bank on these surprises at RB because no position is more fluid. And all four charts--the top 50, top 25, top 10, and top 5--reinforce this.
Tomorrow I'll offer some WR analysis . . .
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
