Fantasy football is an incredible strategy game. It requires analyzing statistics, depth charts, injury reports, and so on every day (for most people) for about five months. But more than that, in basic leagues it features players/DSTs from six unique positions. QBs are fairly reliable, though a few moderate-to-big surprises occur every year. There also aren't many to track, so unless you're in a deep league, many are streamable.
RBs, on the other hand, are more injury prone and more susceptible to demotions. A dozen or more seemingly irrelevant backs in August could become key contributors in December. Yet if you guess right with your top two RBs, you'll be better positioned for a title than virtually anyone else. RBs' siblings are WRs. Elite WRs are almost never as good as elite QBs or RBs. Same goes for back-end WR1s vs. back-end RB1s and back-end QB1s. However, you'll almost never see a top-30 WR get demoted, and their targets throughout each season are fairly reliable.
TEs are typically the shallowest of the "big four" positions. So the gap between elite TEs and back-end TE1s is significant year after year. For example, last season the gap between #1 (Travis Kelce) and Vance McDonald (#10) was 162 points. That was wider than the gaps between the #1 and #10 QB, as well as the #1 and #10 RB. In fact, it was more than double the gap between the #1 and #10 WR.
Then there are kickers and DSTs. Every few years, one kicker crushes it compared to other kickers, and one DST scores like a mid-range RB2. They're largely viewed as commodities for good reason. But drafting an elite kicker or elite DST in a late round can prove critical, as 12-15 points out of a kicker or 15-20 from a DST could be the difference any given week.
This summer I've spent more hours than I care to admit researching and analyzing data. One of these projects has consisted of ADP and scoring data for the past four seasons. When starting this project, my goal was to figure out if historical trends might offer clues on whether certain draft strategies are better than others. Which positions present the greatest risks, and when are those risks not worth taking during a draft? Similarly, which positions offer the greatest rewards, particularly during mid-round and late-round selections?
Some of this is intuitive. I've been using intuition--combined with research--for the 30 years I've been competing in fantasy leagues. But there's always more to uncover. This week, hopefully the graphs and analyses will give us more to think about as we get closer to drafting. At the risk of overstating it, they've given me enough "wow" moments to influence how I draft going forward.
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RBs, on the other hand, are more injury prone and more susceptible to demotions. A dozen or more seemingly irrelevant backs in August could become key contributors in December. Yet if you guess right with your top two RBs, you'll be better positioned for a title than virtually anyone else. RBs' siblings are WRs. Elite WRs are almost never as good as elite QBs or RBs. Same goes for back-end WR1s vs. back-end RB1s and back-end QB1s. However, you'll almost never see a top-30 WR get demoted, and their targets throughout each season are fairly reliable.
TEs are typically the shallowest of the "big four" positions. So the gap between elite TEs and back-end TE1s is significant year after year. For example, last season the gap between #1 (Travis Kelce) and Vance McDonald (#10) was 162 points. That was wider than the gaps between the #1 and #10 QB, as well as the #1 and #10 RB. In fact, it was more than double the gap between the #1 and #10 WR.
Then there are kickers and DSTs. Every few years, one kicker crushes it compared to other kickers, and one DST scores like a mid-range RB2. They're largely viewed as commodities for good reason. But drafting an elite kicker or elite DST in a late round can prove critical, as 12-15 points out of a kicker or 15-20 from a DST could be the difference any given week.
This summer I've spent more hours than I care to admit researching and analyzing data. One of these projects has consisted of ADP and scoring data for the past four seasons. When starting this project, my goal was to figure out if historical trends might offer clues on whether certain draft strategies are better than others. Which positions present the greatest risks, and when are those risks not worth taking during a draft? Similarly, which positions offer the greatest rewards, particularly during mid-round and late-round selections?
Some of this is intuitive. I've been using intuition--combined with research--for the 30 years I've been competing in fantasy leagues. But there's always more to uncover. This week, hopefully the graphs and analyses will give us more to think about as we get closer to drafting. At the risk of overstating it, they've given me enough "wow" moments to influence how I draft going forward.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W