Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will start at QB, and will it matter?
2. Can Derrius Guice be an RB2/3?
3. Can Adrian Peterson replicate his 2018 output if Guice has a setback?
4. Will any wideout be fantasy relevant?
5. Is Jordan Reed draftable?
To those celebrating our nation's independence from the British, happy Fourth of July. To those who take England's side, let's agree to disagree.
It’s been 28 years since Washington has won more than 10 games, during which time they’ve accumulated 184 victories and 246 losses. In the past two seasons their QB situation has transformed from Kirk Cousins to Alex Smith to Case Keenum and/or rookie Dwayne Haskins. Their receiving corps and defense are lacking. They’ve been in rebuilding mode several times in the past two decades. After this season, perhaps only Derrius Guice will be salvageable.
But let’s start at quarterback. Keenum (QB-36 ADP) followed up a highly impressive 2017 campaign with a sizable letdown in 2018. Now on his sixth team in six years, he’ll try to hold off Haskins (QB-28), the first-round pick that head coach Jay Gruden recently said “deserves a shot” at opening the season under center. Given the direction Washington’s headed, I’d be surprised if Keenum wins the job in camp, and would be shocked if Haskins doesn’t take over by October. This makes Haskins a must-draft in two-QB leagues, and presumably a slight bargain at his basement-level ADP given how much he’ll need to throw while playing from behind in fourth quarters. That said, I don’t see him cracking the top 20 this year or next year, unless the team invests more heavily in receivers.
The RB situation is one of the most interesting to watch this summer, as Adrian Peterson continues to defy his age. Now 34 and coming off a 251-carry season where he averaged a respectable 4.2 YPC, he’s a regression candidate plain and simple. His RB-53 ADP suggests Derrius Guice (RB-27) might be healthy enough to start Week 1 after an ACL tear ended the rookie’s season before it started. If Guice suffers a setback this summer, keep an eye on rookie Bryce Love and 2017 fourth rounder Samaje Perine. Remember: Perine looked like a potential starter when Guice went down, but then got hurt immediately the following game, prompting the Redskins to sign AP. And that was the end of that. So to recap, this is Guice’s job to lose; if he’s hurt, it’s AP’s to lose, and I’m betting he’ll lose it (or at least won’t remain a bellcow) through injury or regression. Oh, and Chris Thompson (RB-58) will exceed expectations; that’s a fairly confident call with averages of 3.3 receptions for 28 yards in 49 games spanning four seasons, and the Redskins’ need to play catch-up late in games.
Meanwhile, Washington’s wideouts are a hodge-podge of fantasy mediocrity. Josh Doctson (WR-93 ADP) is the lowest-ranked team #1 receiver (presumably) I’ve ever seen. And it’s actually a ridiculous assumption. Doctson was last year’s 68th highest scoring fantasy WR and is playing for a contract after Washington declined his fifth-year option. Don’t go overboard, but in deep leagues his basement is as a WR6, and his ceiling arguably is a WR4 if things break right. Paul Richardson (WR-102) also deserves more love assuming last year’s shoulder injury doesn’t keep him off the field thru August. Yet another underrated receiver, Trey Quinn (WR-86), was the last player taken in the 2018 draft, but he could become Washington’s top pass-catcher this year. And rookies Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon will bide their time behind the three injury-prone starters. Big takeaway: Unless the Redskins go all 1970’s on us and pass for under 2,000 yards, there’s value to be found in Doctson, Richardson, and Quinn. The question is who will become a useful fantasy streamer. I'm betting either Quinn or Doctson.
Which Washington receiver earned the most targets, caught the most passes, gained the most receiving yards, and tied for the most receiving touchdowns in 2018? Unbelievably, it was Jordan Reed, who accomplished the feat despite missing the better part of four games (fewer than he misses most years). Heading into Year 4 of an overly generous six-year contract, Reed (TE-22 ADP) is a top-16 TE as long as he’s on the field, and he still has TE1 potential. If you’re in a 12-team league and want to wait on tight ends, you could grab him with your last pick and roll the dice on a steal (that is, until he gets hurt). But then there’s always backup Vernon Davis (TE-61), who’s good for top-18 production with occasional spikes when starting.