Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Andy Dalton a top-20 QB?
2. Is Joe Mixon an RB1?
3. Will A.J. Green be a WR1?
4. Will Tyler Boyd be a top-25 WR?
5. Can Tyler Eifert return to relevance?
In 10 complete games last season, Andy Dalton averaged 247 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. In six complete games last season, sub-middling backup Jeff Driskel averaged 153 passing yards, one touchdown, and just under half of an interception. For a "franchise" QB on a $97 million contract, it shouldn’t have been that close.
Since a broken thumb prematurely ended a stellar 2015 campaign (he was on pace for the eighth most QB fantasy points), Dalton has gradually regressed into QB2 territory. Marvin Jones’ departure after the 2015 season might be one factor. Tyler Eifert’s inability to stay on the field since 2015 could be another, as could A.J. Green missing 13 games these past three years.
Last year Dalton missed over 30% of the season and finished 25th among fantasy QBs—by far his worst campaign ever. And so naturally his QB ADP this summer is (wait for it . . .) 26. I’m not saying he’ll return to the solid QB1 player he was in 2013 and 2015. And he might not even rack up the low-end QB1 numbers earned in 2016. But 26th? With two solid receivers and a bottom-5 defense? Dalton will be a top-20 QB and is a good bet for top-16 production if he stays healthy. He’ll be a two-QB-league steal and a solid bye-week streamer.
Joe Mixon took a huge leap forward in his second NFL season, netting the 10th most RB fantasy points despite playing only 14 games. I’d absolutely take him at his RB-9 ADP, and certainly would grab him over James Conner (RB-8) and even Le’Veon Bell (RB-7). I’m projecting 300+ touches for a guy with near-elite potential. Perhaps complementary back Giovani Bernard (RB-68) has deserved a better NFL fate than becoming a passing-game specialist and spot starter. Remember, he was Cincy’s starting RB the first half of the 2014 season, then got hurt, and then Jeremy Hill went off. Now in the final year of a relatively cheap contract, Gio (RB-68) will have to fight for handcuff duties against rookies Trayveon Williams (RB-92) and Rodney Anderson (RB-87). If Mixon gets hurt, this could become a timeshare. So unless Williams and Anderson flop in August, don’t assume Gio’s draftable even in deep leagues.
A.J. Green is worth grabbing at his WR-14 ADP. Higher-than-normal injury risk? Sure. But let’s not overthink it. This is one of the NFL’s most top-heavy receiving corps. Barring a shocking breakout by former first-rounder John Ross (WR-85), no one besides Tyler Boyd (WR-26) is positioned to cut into Green’s numbers. And by the way, in four of the eight full games Green and Boyd played together last year, they both netted 15+ fantasy points. I want to clarify that, because it’s important: In weeks 2, 4, 6, and 8, Green had 15+ points and Boyd had 15+ points. Both guys can find near-weekly success in this offense. Don’t sleep on either at their current values.
I could write a ton about Tyler Eifert, but we all know his story. I hyped him on this blog in the summer of 2015 as one of three TE breakout candidates. 13 touchdowns later, he was the real deal. Three brutally painful seasons later, he’s a reclamation project. If Eifert can get through camp unscathed (a big “if”), his TE-24 ADP will look conservative. As a starter, he’ll probably be the #4 option on offense, which ain’t bad. But if he once again gets hurt, C.J. Uzomah or rookie Drew Sample will need to be on deep-league radars.