Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Matthew Stafford return to fantasy relevance?
2. Will Kerryon Johnson be a reliable weekly fantasy starter?
3. Is Kenny Golladay a top-16 WR?
4. Is Marvin Jones draftable?
5. Will T.J. Hockenson be a top-14 TE?
Matthew Stafford was a QB1 in his first three full seasons with the Lions from 2011 to 2013. With Calvin Johnson still in his prime, Detroit led the NFL in pass attempts in 2011 and 2012, and was fifth in 2013. Stafford averaged 675 throws a year during this span, when he shed the “chronically injured” label that plagued his first two NFL seasons in 2009 and 2010, when he missed 19 contests. (He hasn’t missed a game since: 144 consecutive regular season starts.)
Starting in 2014, a downward trend began. Johnson was sidelined three games and played hurt in others. Stafford’s pass attempts dipped, then dipped again, and continued falling through last season, when he attempted only 555 throws. One of the most trusted receivers of his career (Golden Tate) was traded mid-season, while another (Marvin Jones) missed a good chunk of the season with a knee injury.
But here’s the funny thing: despite the reduced passing load, Stafford remained a QB1 in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Last year he was 20th. So experts and fantasy managers (un)naturally assume 2018 is the new norm. His QB ADP is 23rd. Ridiculous. Even with a middling passing attack, Stafford is capable of maintaining, at minimum, streaming value. And if the receiving corps gets back on track behind potential WR1 Kenny Golladay, Stafford will be one of the three most undervalued quarterbacks in your draft.
A big key to Stafford’s resurgence also lies with second-year phenom Kerryon Johnson, who caught 32 balls in an abbreviated rookie campaign, and who has 1,500-total-yard potential. During Stafford’s 10-year career, only one Lion rusher has cleared 860 yards on the ground. That’s insane. The passing game will improve with an improved running game, and vice versa. This season Johnson (RB-18) should be the team’s best RB since Barry Sanders. Meanwhile, C.J. Anderson (RB-60) poses the biggest threat to Johnson’s breakout potential. I’m watching this preseason closely to see if the team does the right thing and turns Johnson loose. Rookie Ty Johnson (RB-114) is nothing more than a stash unless Kerryon gets hurt, and the once semi-dependable Theo Riddick (RB-70) can’t be counted on even if he gets 6-8 touches a game (which he probably won’t). The same goes for Zach Zenner.
Here’s what we need to understand about Detroit’s wideouts: Kenny Golladay (WR-16) is the clear-cut #1 and could be a top-5 fantasy wideout if things break right—namely, if Stafford gets back on track (assumed) and if Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola fail to dramatically impress. Last year Golladay was targeted on a little over 37% of Detroit receivers’ air yards (fourth most in the NFL) and was the 21st highest scoring fantasy WR despite being limited to 70 catches and five TDs. His growth as a must-start fantasy performer hinges on maintaining a high share of the aerial offense while increasing his usage. Three times last year he was tackled inside the opposing eight-yard line. Another three times he was targeted on plays starting inside the opposing seven-yard line. In other words, double-digit TDs and top-15 fantasy production are entirely doable even if his role doesn’t grow.
As for Jones (WR-40 ADP) and Amendola (WR-114), I’m in wait-and-see mode, wanting to see more from both this summer. Jones is recovering from a serious injury, while Amendola is still trying to match his career-best numbers from 2010. Andy Jones or Travis Fulgham are appealing holds in very deep leagues in the event Jones can’t stay healthy (or is traded), and/or if Amendola falls flat.
Finally, the environment is ideal for a first-round draft pick like rookie T.J. Hockenson (TE-12 ADP). Fantasy managers have to hope he distances himself from veteran Jesse James in camp and starts the season as a nearly every-down tight end. He’s currently priced right on the assumption he’s capable of hitting 500/5 as the presumed #1 TE from the outset.