Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Derek Carr a top-20 QB?
2. Will Josh Jacobs be a reliable RB2+?
3. Is Antonio Brown a locked-in WR1?
4. Is Tyrell Williams draftable?
5. Can any TE be fantasy relevant?
In 2016 Oakland enjoyed its first winning season since 2002, when it lost the Super Bowl to the Jon Gruden-coached Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 2002 marked Oakland’s third consecutive AFC title (the first two under head coach Jon Gruden)—its only three division titles in the past 28 years.
These days, the Raiders have returned to the wilderness, except this version of Jon Gruden can’t seem to break them free. One questionable move after another marred his return to head coaching a decade after stepping away from the game. Truth be told, he’s only 49-63 since that 2002 Super Bowl win. But with nine years left on his nine-figure contract, he’s probably not going anywhere for a while.
On the personnel front, no player is on the hot seat more than Derek Carr, who looked like a franchise QB three years ago, following up a 32/13 TD/INT campaign with a 28/6 effort and throwing for nearly 4,000 yards in each season. The organization signed him that next summer to a six-year, $126 million contract with $70 million guaranteed. So of course this offseason both Gruden and new GM Mike Mayock referred to Carr as their “franchise quarterback.” Because what choice do they have? If he flops this year, they’ll need to throw in the towel and start from scratch, right?
But hold on: I happen to be a fan of Carr’s—not personally, of course, but based on his largely untapped potential. He hasn’t had much to work with on offense the past two seasons with underperforming RBs and wideouts. He was also sacked 51 times in 2018 behind a shoddy offensive line. He had less time to throw (2.55 seconds) than any other starter in the league, contributing to shorter passes (tied for the lowest “average intended air yards” in the league) and a more conservative offense in general. The o-line is now improved, and so are his offensive weapons. Carr’s QB-25 ADP is short-sighted silliness; he’ll be a top-16 option.
At his fairly ambitious RB-15 ADP, I’d still probably take a shot on rookie RB Josh Jacobs. Considering how patient this team was with the post-prime Marshawn Lynch the past two years and the nearly equally post-prime Doug Martin last season, surely a healthy Jacobs can rack up 240+ touches. The big question is whether he’s eased into the role with a backfield that also consists of Martin, Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, and Chris Warren. (Side note: I still don’t understand why Oakland hasn’t traded Richard to a team needing a strong #2—or even a spot starter—in exchange for an upgrade elsewhere.) My views on Jacobs will solidify after the first three preseason games, when we’ll know fairly confidently how he’ll be utilized Week 1.
Is Antonio Brown one of the five greatest NFL receivers of all time? We’ll find out this year. Turning only 31 next month, the former sixth-round pick out of Central Michigan has been a top-5 fantasy WR for six straight seasons, including #1 for four straight. Two more productive campaigns will push him into the top 15 in career receiving yards, top 12 in career receptions, and top 12 in career receiving touchdowns. While it’s unrealistic to place him in the top 5 in 2019, his WR-8 ADP is entirely reasonable, and that’s because of a top-heavy receiving corps that will force Brown to step up. The biggest bargain here is Tyrell Williams (WR-54), who has clear top-35 potential as the likely #2 in the aerial game. Elsewhere, Ryan Grant, J.J. Nelson, and rookies Hunter Renfrow and Keelan Doss will battle for a relevance that will rarely materialize.
The TE battle likely will come down to rarely used four-year vet Darren Waller and fourth-round rookie Foster Moreau. Moreau (TE-54 ADP) gets my vote to outperform his TE teammates, and Oakland will need him to step up and fill the vacuum left by Jared Cook’s departure. I believe Moreau can be a TE1 in 2021. The question is whether he’ll earn a large role out of the gate.