Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Tom Brady a QB1?
2. Will Sony Michel be a top-25 RB?
3. Can Damien Harris be a viable streamer?
4. Should Josh Gordon be drafted?
5. Is any TE worth drafting?
31 teams in the books; one remains. What can be said about New England? Love 'em or hate 'em, it's irrelevant in fantasy. All that matters is whether any Pats can help you win a title.
For nearly 20 years, the offense has run through Tom Brady. Aside from the torn ACL that sidelined him virtually the entire 2008 season, Brady has never missed a game due to injury since claiming the starting job in 2001. Statistically, his 2018 campaign was a disappointment, as he finished a "dismal" 14th despite a preseason QB-3 ADP. He mustered fewer than 16 fantasy points six times beginning in Week 8, and his critically important Week 15/16 totals were 13.2 and 5.0 points. So yeah, he earned the ire of many fantasy managers last year.
As is often the case, his current ADP matches his 2018 performance: QB-14. If you believe his decline will be imminent and steep, then bet against him. I'm not ready to. I examined each of his pass plays from last season and found that five times he threw to a receiver who was tackled at the opposing 1-yard line. Nine other times his receivers were dropped inside the opposing 5. And Brady actually averaged only one fantasy point per game less than he did in 2017 . . . when he was the third highest scoring fantasy QB. When the end comes for Brady, it will be swift, and he'll be the first to know. Draft him with bullishness a round early and, if you want to play it safe, pair him with one of many bottom-half ADP QBs with strong QB1 potential.
In recent years, guessing which Patriot RB will lead the team every week is like playing Whack-a-Mole blindfolded. Last summer I guessed right on James White being underrated and Rex Burkhead being overrated, but guessed wrong on the better-than-expected Sony Michel. And because Bill Belichick won't be satisfied until he can rotate a dozen running backs in and out, the team drafted third-rounder Damien Harris in April. With Michel (RB-24) apparently hurt, there are camp rumors that Harris (RB-47) could secure a meaningful role with a strong August. My concern with Michel last summer hasn't faded: he was largely irrelevant in the passing game in college, and he caught 7-of-11 passes last year. His fantasy value hinges on carries and touchdowns, leaving him less room for error than most top-30 backs (nearly all of whom are fairly active in the passing game). So as of now, Harris is the better value play between these two. Meanwhile, White is worth his RB-26 investment, as he could sharply regress and still exceed expectations. And if everyone's healthy, Burkhead (RB-70) and his steadily declining YPC (3.3 in 2018) should be off all fantasy radars for now.
The only Patriot receiver who out-gained James White through the air last season was Julian Edelman. The 33-year-old contributed more to the team's postseason success than possibly any other offensive player, racking up 388 (often hard-fought) yards on 26 receptions. He proved me wrong last year, collecting the 12th most WR fantasy points per game. That said, his WR-16 ADP is too aggressive for a guy who gets hurt more than most players. He's already dealing with a broken thumb. Enough said. Rookie N'Keal Harry (WR-42) will be intriguing if he wins a starting job. Phillip Dorsett (WR-100), Maurice Harris (WR-137), or Dontrelle Inman (WR-155) could be a surprise depending on what happens in August. That leaves two wild cards: the way-past-his-prime Demaryius Thomas (WR-75) and I'm-not-done-yet Josh Gordon (WR-70). Aside from Edelman, Gordon offers the most upside in his receiving corps, making him a worthwhile late-round stash in case his indefinite suspension is lifted.
Who was Tom Brady's primary tight end target before Rob Gronkowski was drafted? A 28-year-old Ben Watson. 10 years later, Gronk has (allegedly) called it quits, and the now 38-year-old Ben Watson (TE-33) has returned to the team that drafted him in in the first round in 2004. But alas, he's been suspended for four games for performance-enhancing drugs. This has opened the door for one of my breakout fantasy TE candidates, Matt LaCosse. I believe the 26-year-old LaCosse was underutilized in Denver. New England knew what they were doing by signing him in what is clearly a thin position. Ignore his silly TE-42 ADP. I see LaCosse as a TE2 with strong top-14 potential if he holds the job after Watson returns.
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