Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Jared Goff a top-10 QB?
2. Will Todd Gurley be a top-10 RB?
3. Can Darrell Henderson become a viable streamer or starter?
4. Who will be the top WR fantasy scorer?
5. Can Gerald Everett take another step forward?
For a good chunk of last year, the Rams looked not only like a Super Bowl frontrunner, but also like a perfect season candidate. Their midseason win over the Chiefs--the first time two teams had scored 50+ points--was one of the greatest regular season games in NFL history. They averaged 32.9 points per game, tied with the 1999 Rams for the 12th highest in league history. Interestingly, of the 20 highest scoring teams in league history, 10 didn't reach the Super Bowl. The other teams were 1-9 in the title game. The one winner? The '99 Rams.
However, the 2019 Rams' offense could take another step forward, if that's possible. The biggest question marks revolve around a retooled offensive line and the health of their star running back. But first, let's have a frank conversation about Jared Goff. His QB-11 ADP jumps out as a buy opportunity. We're talking about a guy with proven top-5 abilities and one of the best sets of weapons in the NFL. He was the eighth highest scoring fantasy QB last year. So what's the problem? He was averaging 22.8 fantasy points in his first 11 games, which over a full season would have placed him #2 behind Patrick Mahomes. But then after the team's bye, something happened. The loss of Cooper Kupp had to have an impact, and Todd Gurley's mounting ailments surely played a role. And perhaps opposing coaches started game-planning more effectively. He was certainly exposed in the Super Bowl. Yet that wasn't an isolated case. In seven of his final eight contests he totaled only three TD passes and eight picks. Those are third-string rookie numbers. All that said, I'm comfortable reaching a round early for Goff based on upside. But this is a pivotal year for a franchise QB who didn't play like one when it mattered most.
Who knows whether the Rams could have beaten the Patriots with a healthy Gurley, who logged only 35 rushing yards on 10 carries in the biggest game of his career. The giant story heading into 2019 is whether his reportedly arthritic knee will limit his fantasy value going forward--or even cut his career short. His optimistic RB-9 ADP factors in a more realistic perspective of a player whose bellcow days are tenuous. Too dramatic? Possibly. He has 40 TDs in the past two seasons, which is unreal for a running back. But his floor is painfully low on a team that could afford to manage his workload. Let's face it: they'd rather have a healthy Gurley for the playoffs than for the regular season. So it's entirely realistic that he might play only 10-11 games. I'd let an opponent draft Gurley at his current price. On the flip side, rookie Darrell Henderson looks fairly appealing at his RB-34 ADP. If I had to bet, I'd say Henderson will earn 15+ touches multiple times this season.
The Rams are the only team--possibly ever?--to have three wideouts projected as WR2s. Brandin Cooks (WR-17 ADP) and Robert Woods (WR-19 ADP) seem to be priced right. Cooks was last year's 13th best WR despite fading alongside Goff down the stretch. But Woods (11th best) produced double-digit fantasy scoring every game except in weeks 1 and 17. The wild card is Cooper Kupp (WR-21 ADP), who's still recovering from knee surgery after tearing his ACL in November. Kupp's solid eight-game campaign was helped by a relatively high TD total (six) and one huge performance against the Vikings. He'll need to thread the needle to net WR2 production, which is why I wouldn't touch him at his aggressive ADP. Meanwhile, the 24-year-old Josh Reynolds has gobs of potential if injuries decimate the starters. Last season he scored 19+ fantasy points in three of his eight starts. Owning a universally undraftable WR-117 ADP, he's a fantastic final-round selection in best ball and could become a midseason name to watch in deeper leagues.
Two takeaways at tight end. First, Gerald Everett's TE-30 ADP is ridiculous. He was 2018's 22nd best fantasy TE and has room to grow if Tyler Higbee's (TE-103) role doesn't expand. Second, Everett will remain undraftable until/unless Higbee leaves the scene. So for now, bank on Everett as a top 16-20 TE--in other words, one of the better dart throw streamers.
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