Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Baker Mayfield a top-6 QB?
2. Will Nick Chubb be an RB1?
3. Is Kareem Hunt draftable?
4. Is Jarvis Landry a top-25 WR?
5. Will David Njoku be a top-8 TE?
Some people ask me how I order the 32 teams covered every June-July. I pick one team from each division in days 1-8, then a second team from each, and so on. Bad-to-decent teams come earlier. Better teams are saved for later. And I wrap it up with the Super Bowl runner-up and winner in days 31 and 32.
Needless to say, this is the latest I’ve ever covered the Browns. Something strange is happening in Cleveland. Heading into last season, this franchise was 88-216 with only one postseason berth (a first-round loss) since returning to the NFL in 1999. They hadn’t won two playoff games in a row in more than 60 years. And they had one win in their previous 35 contests. But they turned a huge corner last year with a 7-8-1 showing on the strength of a talented rookie QB, a talented rookie RB, a talented veteran WR, and a talented second-year TE.
That’s a lot of talent. And this offseason, they brought in more talent. So what could go wrong? (That’s not a set-up; as Cleveland fans know, things often go wrong.)
The offensive excitement begins with Baker Mayfield. After a few games getting acclimated to the NFL, he came through with five 20+ point outings in his final 10 contests. Surely he’ll take another step forward in 2019. But how big a step? Well, fantasy managers on average are drafting him fifth at his position. Is that realistic? Does Mayfield have a great shot at top 4-6 QB production? Maybe it’s willful ignorance on my part, but I’m not trusting him as a near-elite option. Not yet, anyway.
When Cleveland jettisoned Carlos Hyde for a fifth-round pick last October, those who invested in Nick Chubb on draft day reaped huge rewards. Now Chubb (RB-12) is staring at a bellcow role beginning Week 1. Duke Johnson wants out, and there are no obvious candidates to step into a change-of-pace role. That said, two scenarios could threaten Chubb’s RB1 standing. If Duke stays, he’ll be the main attraction in the passing game. Chubb caught only 13 balls in his final three years at Georgia, and he was a pedestrian 20-for-29 in his rookie campaign. Duke (WR-57) would be a good bet for 4-5 catches a game and top 35-45 production. The other scenario involves the suspended Kareem Hunt. A proven RB1 the past two seasons, Hunt will be eligible to return Week 10 against the Bills.
It’s incredibly difficult to size up a player’s ADP when factoring in a lengthy suspension. But Hunt’s RB-40 ADP is risky on multiple levels. Unless you have an IR spot, stashing someone for that long—with no guarantee that he’ll be a fantasy starter upon returning—is more than I’d take on. The reality is, if Cleveland’s faring well with Chubb, I don’t see them converting the backfield into a timeshare. Hunt’s a restricted free agent after the season. He’s more of a safety valve at this point in case Chubb gets hurt.
One of the biggest offseason sports signings in Cleveland history (besides LeBron James . . .), Odell Beckham, Jr. has the capacity to transform the Browns’ already solid aerial attack into a monster. He and Jarvis Landry will form one of the best 1-2 punches in the league. Buying into OBJ’s WR-5 ADP hinges on buying into Mayfield’s continued development. That’s not a problem from where I’m sitting, because Mayfield’s a tangible upgrade over Eli Manning. But Landry’s a more interesting case. His WR-25 ADP offers buy potential. Cynics will say OBJ will turn Landry into no better than a streaming option. But I think Landry has nowhere to go but up while facing #2 cornerbacks for the first time in five years. Remember, he’s still only 26 years old. Elsewhere, Antonio Callaway (WR-74) is one OBJ or Landry injury away from being a weekly fantasy starter, making him a must-draft in deeper leagues. And Rashard Higgins (WR-108) and Damion Ratley (WR-156) will be irrelevant unless all hell breaks loose.
Finally, 2017 first-round TE David Njoku took a nice step forward in year 2 with a 56/639/4 line, good for ninth among fantasy tight ends. Magically, his ADP is also 9, because why imagine anything different? He has room to grow in an improved offense and is a certifiable buy candidate.
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