Five Biggest Questions
1. Should Patrick Mahomes be the first QB drafted?
2. Is Damien Williams a safe RB2+?
3. Can Tyreek Hill be trusted as a WR1?
4. Will Sammy Watkins be a top-30 WR?
5. Will Mecole Hardman be a streaming option?
My biggest fantasy regret last season was not pushing Patrick Mahomes harder . . . before it was too late. In fairness, my July 14 Chiefs fantasy rundown kicked off with this:
“If Alex Smith could do it, so can Pat Mahomes. Smith’s career year at age 33 was no fluke; he was in a fantastic situation playing alongside an elite RB1, a WR1, and an elite TE1. That same nucleus awaits Mahomes, who was drafted 10th overall in 2017 and who conceivably could become the face of the Chiefs for a decade to come. Fantasy managers in deep-bench dynasty leagues should lunge for him at his QB-15 ADP. However, those in re-draft leagues should not bank on QB1 production in his first season as a starter.”
So close, yet so far. Most fantasy managers and experts overlooked the seemingly obvious last summer—that Smith’s top-4 fantasy production in 2017 could easily be replicated by the more talented Mahomes. I was ready to go big. But after that post, I stopped beating the drum. Bold logic gave way to play-it-safe cowardice. With so many accomplished quarterbacks to choose from, how could I put so much stock in this untested 22-year-old? By August I was tagging him as a “mid-range QB2.” A missed opportunity.
Now nearly every expert ranks him #1 among QBs. His QB ADP is 1. To question his impending dominance is to look ridiculously out-of-touch. But let’s entertain contrarianism for a moment. Mahomes wasn’t just great last season. He was legendary, racking up the most fantasy points since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, and the most QB fantasy points in history. Yes, in history. He had seven 4+ TD performances in the first 12 games. Alex Smith has less than half that many in 166 career games. Aaron Rogers needed 62 games to match Mahomes’ achievement. Tom Brady? 100 games.
So before rushing to anoint Mahomes as an unstoppable fantasy force, let’s trust in the law of fantasy averages. Defenses will adjust. The injury gods might awaken. And so on. Mahomes will be great. But his 5,097/50/12 line from 2018 will look closer to 4,200/40/15 in 2019, making him a top-6 QB with as good a shot at #1 overall numbers as Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and at least a couple other quarterbacks.
Despite looking fairly pedestrian in four seasons in Miami, Damien Williams seized the backfield reins late last season after Kareem Hunt’s release, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and catching an incredible 23 of 24 targets. His RB-13 ADP concerns me. We cannot afford to ignore the risks of a 27-year-old gearing up for a bellcow role after never earning more than 73 touches in a season. Keep a close eye on offseason addition Carlos Hyde (RB-47) and rookie Darwin Thompson (RB-60). I like one of them surprising, and I’d have a tough time trusting Williams as a top-16 option with staying power.
What can be said about Tyreek Hill? Of course last year’s #3 fantasy receiver is a steal at his WR-15 ADP, which continues to climb after the NFL announced it would not suspend him. I love fantasy complexity, because it’s an opening for a competitive advantage. But when complexity involves a player’s personal failings and/or aspirations for redemption, there are more variables than I know what to do with. Hill appears to be in the clear, but given his history, his elite-level potential is almost offset by his higher-than-average another-shoe-could-drop risks. Meanwhile, Sammy Watkins’ WR-26 ADP is way too aggressive. I view him as one of fantasy’s most overvalued wideouts. The often-injured former #4 overall draft pick will be Kansas City’s fourth or fifth option on offense—not a recipe for WR3 production. Second-round rookie Mecole Hardman is the wild card: If he develops quickly, he could over take Watkins. I like his WR-54 ADP because of his upside. Meanwhile, Demarcus Robinson (WR-80), Byron Pringle (WR-128), and possibly Cody Thompson (unranked) will compete for injury-replacement streaming relevance.
Travis Kelce (TE-1 ADP) has been fantasy’s top tight end three years running. After researching it, I can’t find any other tight end who’s ever accomplished this feat. Kelce’s also gotten better each year—a trend that’s bound to reverse itself in what should be a more talented receiving corps. That said, of course he’s the safest fantasy TE out there and deserves to be the first one drafted.
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