Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Drew Brees a top-8 QB?
2. Will either Latavius Murray or Devine Ozigbo offer streaming value?
3. Can Ted Ginn be a WR5+?
4. Is Tre’Quan Smith draftable?
5. Will Jared Cook build on his first top-10 fantasy season?
The Saints were once missed penalty call away from a trip to the Super Bowl this past season, which would have set up an historic battle between two 40-something quarterbacks—arguably two of the three greatest quarterbacks of the past 20 years. Instead, New Orleans enters 2019 with four 7-win seasons, three 11-win seasons, and two 13-win seasons since their last Super Bowl appearance. In other words, they’ve had plenty of chances to get back to the big game, but continue to fall short. Ironically, 2018 was the first time New Orleans hasn’t been top 6 in offensive yards since 2005—the year before Drew Brees signed with the team.
Speaking of Brees, what’s left to be said about this all-time great—not just in football, but sports in general? He’s now #1 in career passing yards and completions, which might prove to be “unbreakable” records if he doesn’t retire before Tom Brady. And he’ll likely finish 2019 with the most passing touchdowns of all time. Oh, and he’s also #1 in passing yards per game, and probably a dozen other statistics if I dig deep enough. Although no longer an elite or even near-elite fantasy option, Brees’s QB-7 ADP is fairly realistic, though I'd rather take him a round later.
Last year Alvin Kamara proved his rookie-year breakout was no fluke. Upping his touches from 201 to a more robust 275, the 23-year-old improved his per-game fantasy output by four points while wrapping up his second consecutive top-4 RB performance—only the third time this feat’s been accomplished in the past six seasons. This year he could be the first back to do it three straight years since Arian Foster (2010-2012). The difference is that the overworked Foster needed nearly 372 touches per season to hit that mark. Kamara is a great bet to hit his RB-4 ADP projection, period. Meanwhile, Latavius Murray has replaced Mark Ingram, at least as of July 22. As a possible RB1 if Kamara gets hurt, Murray seems intriguing at his RB-36 ADP ranking. But this could change in August when rookie Devine Ozigbo (RB-82) takes the field. Inexplicably undrafted, Ozigbo could leapfrog Murray this season in the same way Kamara went from third-stringer to must-start second-stringer in 2017. A lot has to happen before then, of course. But I'd rather bet on Ozigbo with a final-round pick than bet on Murray with a middle-round pick.
The wide receiver situation is somewhat straightforward. Michael Thomas’s contract talks side, there’s probably no wideout more reliable than Thomas. He leads all receivers in receptions the past three seasons (321 total), catching a freakishly incredible 85% of his targets last year. For perspective, I researched this stat season by season and could not find any starting WR who’s come close to hitting 85% in the past 25 years (only a small handful have exceeded 75%, and no one’s been above 80%). Even more interesting, his WR-3 ADP is higher than any of his end-of-season fantasy rankings (7th, 6th, and 6th). With Antonio Brown no longer a top-3 lock, and with Tyreek Hill’s status up in the air, it’s fair to assume a healthy Thomas is as much of a lock as anyone to achieve top-4 production.
Elsewhere, the 34-year-old Ted Ginn should comfortably surpass his WR-81 ADP, though he’ll face an uphill battle for draftability in shallower leagues. Much depends on whether the 23-year-old Tre’Quan Smith (WR-60) takes another step forward. In a best-ball or very-deep-league draft, I’d go Smith for upside. Things get dicey after those two, as Austin Carr (WR-193) and the formerly up-and-coming Cameron Meredith (WR-194) will compete for relevance—if not roster spots—as potential slot options. And Keith Kirkwood (WR-134) could make waves if multiple people get hurt.
I want to believe Jared Cook’s 2018 breakout is a sign of things to come—that some tight ends can be far better in their 30’s than they were in their 20’s (for example, Delanie Walker). But before last season, Cook’s two best seasons placed him 12th among TE fantasy scorers (the only times he’s ever cracked the top 15). Consider this: his Raiders gave up more points than any NFL team. 59% of his fantasy points came when they were trailing (vs. 10% when leading). The Saints have a much better defense. For most of the season Derek Carr leaned on the currently unemployed Jordy Nelson as his #1 WR, followed by Seth Roberts, Martavis Bryant, Marcell Ateman, and Brandon LaFell. Is it any wonder, then, that Cook became an offensive focal point? So no, on a talent-rich New Orleans team, I’m not drafting him at his TE-8 ADP.
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