Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Andrew Luck an elite QB1?
2. Will Marlon Mack be a reliable RB2+?
3. Will Devin Funchess be a top-40 WR?
4. Can Parris Campbell or Deon Cain become streamable?
5. Is Eric Ebron a top-8 TE?
If you took my Andrew Luck advice last summer, I apologize. Given how slowly his recovery was going, I wasn’t buying his QB-11 ADP. Instead, he simply crushed it, finishing fifth among QBs in fantasy points and nearly surpassing his career-year numbers from 2014. This summer the fantasy universe is doing what it does best (or in this case, worst): overreacting. I’m comfortable drafting Luck with 3-4 QBs off the board, but not at his QB-2 ADP. As great as he is, there are probably 8-10 quarterbacks with a realistic shot at elite production, like Deshaun Watson (QB-4), Cam Newton (QB-9), or Jared Goff (QB-11). I’d rather take my chances there and use a high pick on an elite talent at another position.
Luck benefited last year, in part, from an improved running game. In fact, the Colts averaged 4.2 YPC—their highest mark since 2013. I never gave Marlon Mack a decent shot at distancing himself from a young, crowded backfield. But he did just that en route to RB2 production, and was on pace for the 14th most points if he hadn’t missed four games due to hamstring injuries. That said, I’m neutral on his RB-17 ADP; he’ll need to remain healthy, and with only a limited role in the passing game, he’ll need to maintain high efficiency (4.7 YPC with nine rushing touchdowns in 2018—six coming inside the 4-yard-line). Fortunately for him, his biggest competition so far appears to be Nyheim Hines, who rushed 85 times and caught 63 balls. Hines wouldn’t need to do nearly that much to match his RB-43 ADP. Jordan Wilkins (RB-94) and Spencer Ware (RB-90) will battle for relevance.
At wideout, how is T.Y. Hilton still in his 20’s? A fantasy contributor—and primarily a top-15 WR—since entering the league in 2012, Hilton has sky-high potential. However, I wouldn’t reach beyond his WR-11 ADP. He’s never been a high-volume receiver, with 4.7 catches per game in 108 career contests. And he’s never been a high-volume scorer, having never surpassed seven receiving touchdowns in a season. He’s also facing more competition than ever before, and I’m not talking about Devin Funchess, who only rarely lived up to expectations in four seasons in Carolina. Funchess (WR-54) is more likely to be Indy’s third or fourth best receiver this year than the second best. Rookie Parris Campbell (WR-52) is one of his biggest threats; the second-round pick can earn streaming potential with a strong camp and the starting slot role. And Deon Cain (WR-100) is the wild card; as a rookie he tore his ACL last summer, but not before flashing in camp.
As badly as I missed on Luck and Mack last summer, the Jack Doyle hype was easier to dispel. Last July I wrote that the Colts’ presumptive #1 tight end was “ridiculously overrated” with a TE-11 ADP. Preseason ranking subscribers know I was one of the only people to rank Ebron ahead of him—though admittedly I never imagined Ebron would end up #4 overall. This season Ebron owns a TE-7 ADP, which concerns me given the steep improvement to the Colts’ receiving corps. Andrew Luck’s second favorite WR target last year, Chester Rogers, might not even make the team. Those who draft Ebron should feel fortunate to break even. Doyle (TE-19) is waiver fodder, and don’t be shocked if third-stringer Mo Alie-Cox (TE-59) overtakes Doyle—and lowers Ebron’s ceiling—as the year goes on. Alie-Cox's ADP has climbed nearly 20 points in the past 10 days for good reason.
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