Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Carson Wentz a QB1?
2. Will Miles Sanders lead the backfield?
3. Is Jordan Howard draftable?
4. Can Alshon Jeffery be a WR2?
5. Will DeSean Jackson be a good streaming option?
A year after shocking the football world with a Super Bowl victory over the Patriots, the Carson Wentz-less Eagles nearly pulled off another postseason miracle, winning their first road playoff game in a decade before falling 27 yards short of another road win. The team took a step back on offense, scoring almost six points less per game compared to 2017. From a fantasy perspective, Philly regressed in part due to another injury-shortened season for Wentz, in which he played only 11 games. He also averaged only 17.6 fantasy points per game (vs. 21.7 the year before). The talented 26-year-old owns a QB-10 ADP. Given his injury history, I wouldn’t reach too far for him. But if you can get him at 10, he’s more likely than not to outperform expectations (while healthy).
When September rolls around, Philly’s backfield will have gone through a nearly complete transformation. Leading rushers Josh Adams (127 touches) and Wendell Smallwood (115 touches) might not make it through final cuts. Corey Clement (90 touches) will be a third-stringer at best. And Jay Ajayi (prized 2017 midseason acquisition) and legendary 36-year-old Darren Sproles (sixth in career all-purpose yards) are free agents. Replacing them will be rookie Miles Sanders (RB-32 ADP) and offseason addition Jordan Howard (RB-35). Howard’s limited passing-game usage and declining efficiency in three NFL seasons make him a risky draft pick. In fact, he’s averaging 3.5 YPC in his last 19 regular season contests. While Sanders isn’t guaranteed a clear-cut primary role, he’s the better bet, plain and simple. Meanwhile, Clement (RB-81), Smallwood (RB-92), and Boston Scott (RB-261) will battle it out for a minor change-of-pace or injury replacement role.
Alshon Jeffery was fantasy’s 26th best wideout last season and now owns (unsurprisingly) a WR-29 ADP. Interestingly, he played better last year with Nick Foles (17.4 fantasy points per game) than with Wentz (13.3). Anomaly? Possibly. The bigger takeaway is that while Jeffery’s still in his prime, he’s missed 3+ games in three of the past four seasons. A 16-game Alshon will be a WR2, so drafting him at his comfortable ADP should give you value as long as he can take the field. Elsewhere, the 32-year-old DeSean Jackson reunites with the Eagles after five years away. During that time he’s enjoyed two terrific campaigns and three mostly forgettable ones. Likely the fourth option on offense, he’s priced right at his WR-50 ADP, though I’d sell high if he gets hot early. The wild cards are Nelson Agholor, who you’d think will outperform his WR-77 expectations after breaking out with WR2 numbers in 2018, and rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside (WR-86). One of them will crack the top 60 and could push for top-40 numbers if the offense is humming.
Zach Ertz (TE-2 ADP) has been a TE1 for four straight seasons, finishing in the top 3 in 2017 and 2018. Not much more needs to be said. More interestingly, Dallas Goedert is coming off a solid 33/334/4 campaign. While his TE-22 ADP is a bit ambitious for a #2 tight end, he’ll probably be the top waiver pickup of the week if Ertz ever gets hurt.
---
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Spreadsheet: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/