Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Ben Roethlisberger a top-10 QB?
2. Is James Conner an RB1?
3. Can JuJu Smith-Schuster be a top-5 WR?
4. Will Donte Moncrief or James Washington be a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Is Vance McDonald a TE1?
With all-world RB Le’Veon Bell sitting out all year, and all-world WR Antonio Brown’s complaints ramping up, the 36-year-old Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed one of the greatest career years of any 15+ year veteran of any professional sport. His 340.9 fantasy points were a little over 10% higher than his previous high (306.2 in 2014) and nearly 22% higher than his next-best season (267.3 in 2009). Entering 2019, I was expecting to criticize what assuredly would be an overly ambitious average draft position. Instead, there he is at a fairly modest QB-13 ADP. What can we make of this? He’s finished outside the top 15 in five of his past 11 campaigns, though much of that has been due to injuries. It likely will come down to health for a guy who’s had only four 16-game seasons. He’ll exceed expectations while on the field, and I’d be surprised if he plays all 16 games again.
I covered James Conner a bit when discussing Le’Veon Bell in the recent Jets rundown. As many of you know, I was very high on him last summer as a cheap source of potential points and drafted him in both my leagues, but never envisioned Bell would sit all year, and certainly never imagined Conner would look Bell-like more often than not. That said, his RB-8 ADP is frighteningly misplaced. Conner enjoyed a near-perfect storm of dominance thanks to a nearly unprecedented offensive explosion (eight points shy of Pittsburgh's highest point total in their 86-season history). He’s also at risk of losing goal-line work. In 2018 he averaged 1.2 carries per contest inside the opposing 5-yard line. That was the second highest mark in the NFL behind Todd Gurley. Conner parlayed that into 53.6 fantasy points—or 19% of his total. That’s not sustainable. Jaylen Samuels (RB-45) showed well when forced to start, compounding the notion that the Steelers’ elite offensive line can help transform good RBs into great ones. And the team just burned a fourth-round pick on Benny Snell (RB-67).
Bigger picture, it wouldn't make sense for head coach Mike Tomlin to run Conner into the ground like he did Bell in years past. Conner's got two more seasons on a cheap contract. I think at best he’ll net 14-16 touches a game (down from 20.7 last year). If he continues to lead the backfield, he’ll be an RB2. But he’s no lock to end the year as a starter, making him the riskiest top-12 RB out there. Simply put, Samuels is an ultra-affordable, must-roster handcuff with immediate RB3 upside even if Conner starts.
When Antonio Brown was ready to become Big Ben’s #1 target, Pittsburgh unloaded Mike Wallace, a 26-year-old with two WR1 seasons already under his belt. That next season, Brown was fantasy’s #3 wideout, and he was #1 the following four years before “falling” to fifth in 2018. Heading into 2019, Brown is gone, and the Steelers have a new, dominant #1: JuJu Smith-Schuster. Set to begin his third NFL campaign anchoring one of the league's youngest receiving corps, the 22-year-old has a WR-6 ADP, which actually might be conservative. He was fourth in NFL targets last year, but ceded 15 touchdowns to Brown. He should match that target total in 2019, and definitely should build off last year’s seven-TD performance. Basically, he doesn’t have to produce much more than last year’s output to be a top-3 WR. The rest of Ben’s wideout options are older, but not by much. The 25-year-old Donte Moncrief will comfortably outperform his WR-55 ADP assuming he wins a starting job. His biggest competition will be 23-year-old James Washington (WR-44). I believe Moncrief is the better bet, not to mention the better value. The 24-year-old Ryan Switzer and 23-year-old Diontae Johnson likely will compete for scraps, while Eli Rogers has an uphill battle to even make the team.
Anyone else find it strange that Vance McDonald has a TE-10 ADP? As is the case all too often, last year he was (you guessed it) the 10th highest scoring fantasy TE. 53 of 82 experts believe he’ll be a TE1. The 29-year-old has a fairly low ceiling. Last year he hit it. Let someone else draft him.
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