Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Aaron Rodgers once again be a top-3 QB?
2. Can Aaron Jones be trusted as an RB2+?
3. Is Davante Adams a top-4 WR?
4. Who will be Rodgers’ #2 WR target?
5. Is Jimmy Graham a top-12 TE?
The Packers are one of a handful of teams with a decent shot at producing an elite QB, an RB1, and an elite WR. As it has for more than a decade, this offense will run through Aaron Rodgers. It wasn’t long ago that he was a perennial preseason #1. He’s been the #1 fantasy quarterback four times and #2 three times. At age 35, playing under a new head coach, and coming off a down season (for him), can he return to elite status? He racked up 19.5 fantasy points per game last year, which was his fourth worst showing in the past decade. Much will hinge on the development of his relatively young receiving corps. I’m okay buying him at his QB-4 ADP, though I’d obviously prefer snagging him if he falls to 5 or 6 (unlikely).
In the backfield, for two years I’ve been publicly pushing Aaron Jones over Jamaal Williams. Williams somehow earned more love in 2017 despite being less effective on the ground (3.6 YPC vs. 5.5 for Jones). Then Jones was suspended for the first two games of 2018, giving Williams the edge. I drafted both in the FF4W Premier League, which turned out well as Williams gradually ceded the lead-back role to the more talented Jones. This summer their ADPs are night and day: 15 for Jones and 62 for Williams, which is entirely sensible given their talent gap, but baffling given head coach Matt LeFleur’s stated preference for a committee backfield:
https://twitter.com/Michael_Cohen13/status/1100830098440237057
So to be clear, if Jones were given 250+ touches, he’d likely surpass his ADP. But no one knows whether LeFleur’s words should be taken as fact. So unless/until something changes, I can’t justify drafting a possible committee back at 15. I want to, but I can’t. Let’s see what August brings.
My belief in Davante Adams was unwavering last summer. As subscribers know, I urged them to reach early for him at his WR-7 ADP (he was #4 on my draft board), and he wound up the #2 fantasy scorer. Magically, his current WR ADP is 2. I see him regressing based on a likely drop in targets (Adams had the second most in the league in 2018) and vastly improved play from younger, healthier, still-developing receivers. Let me be clear: Adams is a bust candidate with strong WR2 potential. It sounds completely ridiculous. Only one of 89 experts places him outside the top 5 (and that expert, Adam Rank, lists him at #6). So what’s my deal?
Green Bay’s receiver outlook has changed dramatically. Geronimo Allison was poised to take a huge leap forward last season, collecting 59.9 fantasy points in the first four games. He was on pace to be the 14th highest scoring WR. Think about that: 14th. Incredible. (Adams was on pace for only the 10th most points). But then Allison missed 11 games with injuries, while Equanimeous St. Brown missed four. Both guys are expected to get more looks in 2019. While we don’t know which of the Packers’ five or six non-Adams wideouts will step up, we should view all of them as bargains at their current ADPs: Allison (WR-47), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR-49), and St. Brown (WR-88) lead the way. Two of these three will make fantasy managers very happy. Jake Kumerow (WR-103) and/or Trevor Davis (WR-210) will be relevant if injuries decimate the starters.
And what should we make of Jimmy Graham (TE-17 ADP)? Simply put, he’s one of several nice-upside tight ends you can snag very late. Still “only” 32 years old, the veteran racked up 52% of his fantasy points in the first six games of 2018. Despite the fade, he finished 12th among fantasy TEs and is certifiably undervalued heading into 2019.
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