Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Philip Rivers be a QB1?
2. Is Melvin Gordon an elite RB?
3. Can Austin Ekeler once again be an RB3?
4. Can Mike Williams be a WR3?
5. Is Hunty Henry a top-8 TE?
Here’s what I wrote in last summer’s “32 Teams in 32 Days” Chargers preview:
“Philip Rivers is ninth all-time in NFL passing yards, 12th in attempts, seventh in completions, and sixth in passing TDs. He’s played every game of the past 12 seasons. For 10 straights years he’s tossed 26+ touchdowns, and in nine of those he’s cleared 4,000 passing yards. In those same nine of 10 seasons he’s scored between 255 and 287 fantasy points. That level of consistency is perhaps unprecedented. Perennially undervalued in July and August, Rivers is a great get at his QB-16 ADP.”
My 2019 assessment isn’t much different. He’s now eighth all-time in passing yards, ninth in attempts, and still sixth in passing TDs, while Ben Roethlisberger’s career year pushed Rivers down one spot in completions. Once again he didn’t miss a game (13th straight year), tossed 26+ TDs (11th straight year), and surpassed 4,000 passing yards (10th time in 11 years). And his 285 fantasy points kept him in the 255-287 range for the 10th time in 11 years. Finally, as anticipated, he comfortably exceeded his ridiculously low ADP. To reiterate last summer’s sentiments, such QB consistency (never elite, and never sub-par) has likely never been matched by any quarterback over such an extended period. His QB ADP heading into 2019 is 14. He’s certainly worth grabbing a round early.
The previous two summers I warned about Melvin Gordon’s impending descent, and I’ve been brutally wrong each time. Despite missing four games in 2018 (the third time in four years he's missed 2+ contests), he never looked more impressive, averaging 5.1 yards per carry after never exceeding 3.9 in his prior three campaigns. Now he's trying to parlay this breakout into a new contract or a trade, making his RB-6 ADP risky, to put it mildly. Although I continue to believe in Justin Jackson (RB-70) and Austin Ekeler (RB-41), there’s no denying Gordon’s RB1 value if/when he's ready to play. But the longer he threatens the Chargers, the more valuable Jackson and Ekeler obviously will become.
Just like the backfield, the Chargers’ receiving corps is young and dangerous. Still only 27, Keenan Allen has assembled back-to-back 16-game, WR1 seasons after a pair of injury-plagued campaigns threatened to upend his career. Allen is sensibly locked in with a WR-9 ADP. He could be a little worse or a little better, but a top-12 finish is almost automatic if he remains healthy. His primary competition at wideout will be the ascending Mike Williams (WR-29), last year’s #32 wideout. It should be noted, though, that over 20% of his fantasy production came in Week 15, when Keenan Allen was knocked out early with a hip injury. If Williams had sat this one out, he would have ended the season as the 45th best WR. Is revisionist history fair? Not always. But when projecting future numbers, we have to weight outliers. Week 15 was an outlier. Williams is a better dynasty option than 2019 option, as he'll be more of a WR3/4 than a WR2/3. Elsewhere, Travis Benjamin (WR-123 ADP) is a good bet to crack the top 100 if he locks down a starting role, while Dylan Cantrell (WR-196) has the best shot to step in if someone gets hurt.
Hunter Henry tore his ACL last May, frustrating dynasty managers banking on the young TE to take another step toward elite status. But the 24-year-old remains a hot commodity, earning a TE-6 ADP at a position that’s arguably deeper than during his last full season in 2017. And that last part is the key. I believe experts and managers are overvaluing Henry. His two-year track record consists of being the 14th and 19th highest scoring TE. In 2016, Dontrelle Inman was the #2 wideout, while Melvin Gordon missed three contests. Tyrell Williams was the #2 the following year. True, Henry competed with Antonio Gates for targets. But between Gordon, Ekeler, Keenan, and Mike Williams, I think 60/700/6 for Henry (low-end TE1) is more realistic than 70/800/7 (mid/upper TE1).
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