Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Matt Ryan a near-elite fantasy QB?
2. Will Devonta Freeman return to RB1 status?
3. Will Ito Smith be fantasy relevant?
4. Can Calvin Ridley be a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Is Austin Hooper a locked-in top-10 TE?
Heading into last season, Matt Ryan’s best statistical seasons were in 2012 (305 fantasy points), two years later in 2014 (284), and two years after that in 2016 (347). He followed up each of those campaigns with significant letdowns: 248 in 2013, 234 in 2015, and 228 in 2017. If this trend continues, coming off a career-high 354 points in 2018, get ready for the inevitable crash. Of course, that’s not how things work. Atlanta has a strong receiving corps and terrific running game, and last I checked their passing defense couldn’t stop anyone. Last summer most experts ranked him as a bottom-half QB. I called him a “bounce-back candidate,” but I should have anticipated a bigger bounce-back. As it stands, Ryan’s QB-6 ADP seems about right, though I’d rather get him at 8 or 9 given how much QB talent is out there.
Devonta Freeman’s return after a lost 2017 season will be key to consistently moving the chains. In 2015 he was far and away the #1 fantasy RB, and in 2016 posted similar numbers while finishing sixth. With Tevin Coleman gone and Ito Smith overrated, Freeman has a clear path to surpass his RB-16 ADP expectations. Meanwhile, Ito’s 3.5 YPC didn’t stop Atlanta from force-feeding him 117 touches last year, generally at the expense of the more talented Coleman. Ito’s RB-50 ADP makes sense, but I don’t see him as bellcow material, so don’t overpay for a guy with an RB3 ceiling. Elsewhere, Kenjon Barner, Brian Hill, and rookie Qadree Ollison will compete for a backup role.
Last summer I took plenty of heat for recommending Julio Jones as the #3 fantasy WR, ahead of his ADP and, based on reader responses, ahead of where most people felt comfortable drafting him. Julio went on to enjoy the second-best season of his Hall-of-Fame-caliber career, finishing less than three points out of third place (and four points out of second). Now 30 years old, he realistically has 2-3 more years of “prime” remaining. As long as he remains the most targeted Falcon (he led the NFL with 170 targets last year), his WR-4 ADP is achievable. The biggest threat to his supremacy is 2018 first rounder Calvin Ridley, who was fantasy’s #22 wideout as a rookie, and who has room to grow beyond his WR-23 ADP. Am I reaching? No. But if I can snag him at his current price, I’ll be happy. Elsewhere, Mohammed Sanu (WR-69) has nose-dived in fantasy communities after finishing 31st in WR fantasy scoring last year. While he'll surely regress, he won't come close to regressing into WR7 territory.
An interesting stat that reflects on Julio’s and Ridley’s potential: Last year a little over half of Matt Ryan’s passing yards, and 50% of his passing TDs, went through Julio or Ridley. This is on par with what we saw from Ryan when Julio and Roddy White were the lead wideouts in 2011, 2012, and 2014, and when Roddy and Michael Jenkins were the lead wideouts in 2008, 2009, and 2010.
Some of the most flack I took from readers last summer was recommending the 100% undraftable Austin Hooper (TE-24 ADP) as a top-16 TE with a decent shot at TE1 production:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/1730024660378839
My final preseason top 300 spreadsheet placed him at #12. As we now know, he didn’t disappoint, finishing sixth among all fantasy TEs. Strangely, the fantasy universe still isn’t sold, as his TE-ADP is only 11th. What am I missing? Is he really destined for a 20% dip in production? The guy is only 24. He caught 81% of his targets—highest among all starting TEs, and 5% higher than his 2017 mark (when he was #2 among TEs behind Benjamin Watson). His 2018 snap count was only 1% below Julio Jones’s. If you think Hooper was a fluke, not sure what else I can say. Inexplicably he’s once again a fantastic fantasy bargain.
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