Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Deshaun Watson an elite fantasy QB?
2. Will Lamar Miller be a top-25 RB?
3. Is D’Onta Foreman draftable?
4. Can Will Fuller be a reliable WR3+?
5. Is Keke Coutee a WR4+?
Three years ago, Houston made one of the biggest mistakes a franchise can make: signing a backup-caliber quarterback to a $72 million contract ($37 million guaranteed). That summer on this blog I lamented that the team would have been better off keeping the cheaper (and better) Brian Hoyer, and that DeAndre Hopkins’ WR-4 ADP was “groupthink at its worst.” It was a mistake that could have taken years to undo.
They then succeeded in unloading Osweiler and his insane contract (plus a draft pick upgrade) onto Cleveland, and followed that up by finding their real franchise QB with the 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft: Deshaun Watson. In the midst of an historic rookie campaign, Watson tore his ACL and limped (figuratively and possibly literally) into last summer with many experts wondering if he could return to greatness. As we now know, he did, starting all 16 games en route to the fourth most QB fantasy points—this despite making the sixth fewest pass attempts in the league, losing his #2 receiver for nine games, and losing his #3 receiver for 10 games. This year he has #1 overall potential, meaning I’d take him at his QB-3 ADP.
After two relatively disappointing seasons as Houston’s bellcow running back, Lamar Miller got back in track in 2018 to hold off (for now) the highly touted D’Onta Foreman. As a rookie in 2017, Foreman looked ready to challenge Miller for the lead RB role before suffering a torn Achilles’ in November. 2018 was a lost season of recovery and easing back into action. And so once again the starting job is Miller’s to lose, but a strong early-season showing by Foreman could shift the balance. As it stands, one of their positional ADPs is way too low: Miller’s is 32, while Foreman’s is 43. I think it makes sense to take both at their current prices, knowing that you’ve gotten a steal if one wins the 18+ touch role, and if it’s a timeshare, Foreman should surpass projections.
At wideout, the brief Demaryius Thomas experiment is over, and the Texans’ “Big 3” are expected to reunite for the first time since last October. Some readers might recall I listed DeAndre Hopkins above universal #1 Antonio Brown on my draft board, and he came through. This year Hopkins is justifiably, on average, the #1 WR. In the four games he and Will Fuller and Keke Coutee shared the field, he racked up 27 catches on 39 targets for 433 yards and three TDs. In other words, Hopkins will thrive regardless. Fuller (WR-33) is a sizable risk, having missed more than one-third of Houston’s games (17 out of 48) during his three-year career. He’s also recovering from an ACL tear. Equally concerning, he averaged 9.1 fantasy points with Hopkins and Coutee on the field last year. In his other 15 contests catching balls thrown by Watson he’s averaged 12.2 points. While the past is not necessarily the future, there are enough yellow flags to let an opponent grab Fuller at his current price. I’d rather snag Coutee (WR-44) a few rounds later. Meanwhile, Vyncint Smith (WR-244) or DeAndre Carter (WR-368) could be the next man up if someone gets hurt (a distinct probability).
At TE, Jordan Thomas will get the first shot at claiming the #1 spot. His TE-43 ADP offers nothing-to-lose appeal. Then again, he’s also a little-to-win option as an entirely TD-dependent tight end. If you’re streaming and desperate, he’ll be 10-points-or-bust. But mostly bust. Rookie Kahale Warring (TE-47) offers more upside this season if he shows well this preseason.
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