Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Russell Wilson be a top-6 QB?
2. Who will be the better fantasy option: Chris Carson or Rashaad Penny?
3. Is Tyler Lockett a top-25 WR?
4. Will D.J. Metcalf be fantasy relevant?
5. Will any TE be fantasy relevant?
How good is Russell Wilson? He’s been a QB1 in each of his seven NFL seasons despite not having a 1,000-yard receiver in five of them. I believe if he’d been playing in Green Bay all this time, he would have enjoyed six or seven elite seasons, rather than “just” three. And now with Doug Baldwin’s untimely retirement, his receiving corps is one of the league’s more muddled. His QB-8 ADP is safe, as he should finish in the 5-10 range.
At running back, Chris Carson put it all together last season, finishing 15th among fantasy RBs despite missing two contests. Slowed by injuries throughout his brief career, he’s now recovering from knee surgery, giving 2018 first rounder Rashaad Penny (RB-34 ADP) opportunities to challenge for the lead role. He and Carson (RB-28) could be headed toward a hot-hand situation, which is challenging for any fantasy manager; even if you roster both, it’s not always clear before game time who’s getting the most touches. I’d be hesitant to draft either at this stage, and hope the pecking order grows more defined in August. J.D. McKissic and rookie Travis Homer are merely names to watch in case injuries throw this backfield into chaos.
At wideout, after three years of flirting with breakout potential, Tyler Lockett broke out in 2018 with the 16th most WR fantasy points. And no one in the top 31 had as few targets (71) or receptions (57). He caught an incredible 80% of balls thrown his way, which was second highest in the league among starters, behind Michael Thomas. And as I’ll share in the Saints rundown later this month, I researched this stat season by season and could not find any starting WR (besides Thomas) who hit 80%. I’m comfortable drafting Lockett before his WR-23 ADP, drawn by his rising ceiling and his four-year chemistry with Wilson.
Rookie second rounder D.J. Metcalf (WR-46) is priced about right, though if he shows well in August, his ADP is bound to pop into the 30’s. Beyond that the depth chart is very fluid. Rookies Gary Jennings (WR-144), John Ursua (WR-172), or Jazz Ferguson (unranked) could step up. So could the more established Jaron Brown (WR-113) or David Moore (WR-89). With none of these tertiary guys among the first 85 WRs coming off the draft board, it’s wait-and-see on which one, if any, will be streamable.
Last year Russell Wilson threw sparingly to lead tight end Nick Vannett, and even more sparingly to secondary tight ends Ed Dickson and Will Dissly. The three combined for 568 yards and eight scores. Then in April Seattle traded for another TE: Jacob Hollister. What’s the deal, Seahawks? Self-respecting fantasy managers want—nay, demand—clarity. The highest-ranked option is Dissly (TE-30 ADP), but that’s not action worthy. The chance that one of these four will be a starting fantasy option is slim, period.
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