Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will be the highest-performing QB?
2. Can Kenyan Drake be consistently fantasy relevant?
3. Will DeVante Parker be a top-50 WR?
4. Is Kenny Stills draftable?
5. Will Mike Gesicki win the starting TE job, and will it matter?
After seven years—and six playable seasons—of Ryan Tannehill, Miami moved on this offseason by replacing him with brainiac journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick and last year’s 10th overall draft pick, Josh Rosen. And not to say Rosen isn’t smart, too. But Fitz scored a 48 out of 50 on his Wonderlic and was an economics major at Harvard. I never took econ in college because I was too scared. So I speak on this subject from a position of unworthiness.
Fitz’s ADP (QB-41) and Rosen’s (QB-32) suggest neither will have the starting job all season. And I don’t believe those who insist the Dolphins need to start Rosen this year. In fact, if Fitz is playing well (as he did early last year for Tampa Bay), Miami would be foolish to shift gears. Fitz is signed on the cheap for two years. They have Rosen under team control for four. If you’re going to draft one in a two-QB league, based on what we know now, make it Fitz. He has more experience and more upside and is far more dangerous than people give him credit for.
The Dolphins’ RB situation is even more muddled. Kenyan Drake was my pick to lead this backfield two years ago when he was the third-stringer behind Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams. But despite strong running and efficient usage in the passing game, last year he earned double-digit carries only once after Week 8. Veteran Frank Gore had his best campaign in years, relegating Drake to a complementary role. Meanwhile, rookie Kalen Ballage—who actually was productive in the passing game in college—showed well. This year fantasy folks are much higher than Drake (RB-25 ADP) than Ballage (RB-54). It’s too early to make strong judgments about either, except to say that if you’re drafting in July, Drake carries more risks than most lead-back frontrunners, though his floor is obviously much higher than Ballage’s.
DeVante Parker looked to be on his way out of Miami last season. There were reports of the team trying to trade him. He received some “healthy scratch” tags. When playing, he rarely made much noise. The 2015 first rounder was no longer part of the franchise’s short- or long-term plans. Remember when he and Jarvis Landry were supposed to be the next Mark Duper / Mark Clayton tandem? Neither do I. But here we are in July, and Parker’s showing well in camp and appears motivated after Miami tacked another year onto his contract (though at a discount). His WR-63 ADP offers nothing-to-lose potential. If Fitz is starting, I like Parker shocking fantasy prognosticators with top-40 production. Next, I’ve always publicly pushed Kenny Stills to outperform expectations, and his WR-64 ADP is way too low. As I’ve said before, completely ignore ADPs when none of a team’s wideouts are in the top 50. One or two will prove to be significant bargains. Elsewhere, Albert Wilson (WR-74) could be a decent midseason streamer once he gets healthy, but not if personally abhorrent (domestic violence arrest), professionally capable rookie Preston Williams (WR-132) earns a starting role; Williams is the wild card in this unit.
Finally, Miami now has four tight ends with NFL starter experience. 2018 second rounder Mike Gesicki (TE-25 ADP) failed to catch on last year despite weak competition. Dwayne Allen (TE-184) has returned from two years in the New England wilderness to try to reclaim the sporadic fantasy relevance managers were accustomed to when he was in Indy. And Nick O’Leary (TE-85) is also in the hunt, though I can’t imagine why anyone would draft him. While Gesicki has the inside track, he remains a wait-and-see fantasy prospect.