Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Dak Prescott a top-16 QB?
2. Will Amari Cooper be a WR1?
3. Is Michael Gallup draftable?
4. Can Randall Cobb be fantasy relevant?
5. Will Jason Witten be a top-14 TE?
Dallas management has a tough decision to make. Dak Prescott is earning a relative pittance while playing out his rookie contract. He’s expecting a big extension, and the Cowboys appear willing to give it, with reports suggesting roughly $30 million a year is on the table. Such a pay day would put him in elite company. Yet’s he’s not an elite quarterback, though that hasn’t stopped other teams from overpaying their quarterbacks.
But I actually like Dak this season, particularly at his generous QB-17 ADP. Everything changed for him last year when Dallas acquired Amari Cooper. Before then he was leaning on Cole Beasley, Allen Hurns, some middling tight ends, and an underdeveloped Michael Gallup. In his first seven games (without Amari), Dak averaged 202 passing yards while throwing for only eight scores (and four interceptions). In his nine games with Amari, Dak averaged 274 passing yards while tossing 14 TDs (and four interceptions). From a fantasy perspective, his splits were 16.0 points per game without Amari and 19.3 points per game with Amari. That’s why he was a QB1, and that’s why he’ll be better than nearly everyone expects in 2019.
Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott could be looking at a contract extension in the next year, as the team has a one-year option in 2020. That option might get more interesting if Zeke’s off-the-field troubles grow. He had an altercation with a security guard in May. He was suspended for six games in 2017. One gets the sense that another strike against him would be very costly. After the Giants rundown a couple weeks ago, some folks suggesting drafting Zeke over Barkley. I’d advise against it. More than that, his RB-3 ADP is too bullish for me. In addition to extracurricular concerns, he’s earned more carries per game than any other back these past two years—and was just behind #1 Le’Veon Bell three years ago. He earned nearly 400 touches last season, and as I’ve written repeatedly over the years (and will walk through in much more statistical detail in a few weeks), historically such heavy usage often precedes a sharp statistical downturn the following season. You’ve been warned. Now make sure you grab Tony Pollard; his ADP keeps creeping upward and now sits at RB-71.
Now back to Amari Cooper. Who doesn’t love this guy? Well, from a fantasy perspective, many people over the years. Despite being the #21 fantasy WR his rookie year (2015), then climbing to 14th in 2016, too many people viewed his 2017 letdown as a sign of things to come. Keep in mind he was only 23 years old. Last year he struggled out of the gate in Oakland, and Dallas pounced. He went on to both dominate (two 38+ point fantasy outings) and frustrate (four games under 10 points, including three times to close out the season). Amari should be a semi-reliable WR2 with occasional big games and occasional duds. He’s too risky at his WR-12 ADP because of a stronger receiving corps. Gallup is a steal at his WR-56 ADP, as he should take another step forward in year 2. The surprisingly youthful (somehow only 28 years old) Randall Cobb joins the team with a WR-65 ADP and a lot to prove, though repeated injury issues and a questionable makes him riskier (though with comparable upside if things break right). And Allen Hurns (WR-163), rookie Jalen Guyton (unranked), and perhaps one or two others will offer “next man up” appeal if one of the three starters goes down.
And who’s that coming out of retirement? The 37-year-old Jason Witten, who’s #4 on the all-time reception list and 21st in receiving yards. His TE-26 ADP suggests he’ll retire mid-season. Add him as a top-18 option with a low-end TE1 ceiling.