Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Lamar Jackson improve his passing game?
2. Is Mark Ingram a top-25 RB?
3. Is Gus Edwards draftable?
4. Is Marquise Brown draftable?
5. Will any other WR be a fantasy asset?
Baltimore has suffered through only one losing season in the past 11 years, but they’ve missed the playoffs in three of the last four, and they’re headed for another miss in 2019 thanks to a realignment in the AFC North. Leading the way will be second-year “franchise” QB Lamar Jackson, who gave fantasy managers a solid streaming option in the second half of last season thanks to his exceptional running ability. He racked up 556 rushing yards on 119 carries (4.7 YPC) in seven starts.
In fact, 63% of his fantasy points came on the ground. That’s both promising and concerning—promising because if he develops his passing game, Jackson could dominate, and concerning because if he doesn’t, he won’t be more than a streaming option. That’s why I accept him at his current QB-19 ADP, and I’ll continue to be concerned about how his development (or lack of development) will impact his receivers’ fantasy potential.
If you know how Baltimore’s RBs will shake out, you’re smarter than me (and you’re probably smarter regardless). Mark Ingram’s offseason signing should have provided clarity for a Raven backfield that’s cycled through more than a half-dozen supposed starter-quality backs since Ray Rice’s dismissal five years ago: Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett, Buck Allen, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon, Alex Collins, Gus Edwards . . . And remember when the hyped-up Danny Woodhead owned an RB-32 ADP two summers ago? Simply put, the Ravens’ depth chart has been as malleable as the dough Carla uses to make pan pizza (my wife's watching Bon Appetit videos while I do fantasy research).
And so I’m not buying Mark Ingram at his RB-22 ADP. He needs a perfect storm of health, goal-line looks, and passing-game usage to be an RB2. I don’t like those odds. He’s a higher-than-average injury risk and is turning 30 in December. 13 of his last 20 regular-season rushing touchdowns have come inside the 3-yard line. But with Gus Edwards (RB-68 ADP today, 5.2 YPC last season) vying for touches and Jackson a constant threat to run in it near the end zone, Ingram’s goal-line work isn’t guaranteed. In deep leagues I’d stash Edwards for cheap instead, while Justice Hill (RB-56) could carve out a top-40 PPR role with a strong preseason.
As alluded to above, the Ravens’ receiving corps is a risk any way you look at it. Even if Jackson becomes a decent passer, the team will lean heavily on two unproven options and a middling veteran. Chris Moore (WR-110), rookie Marquise Brown (WR-59), and last year’s #2 receiver Willie Snead (WR-95) will comprise perhaps the lowest-output fantasy WRs in the league. Brown clearly offers the most upside based purely on talent. But with Jackson averaging 159 passing yards per game last year, drafting Brown means hoping he helps transform this aerial attack. That’s a lot to ask, though his ADP suggests you have little to lose, as he’ll exceed expectations with a 50/500/5 season. In very deep leagues, any of these guys—plus rookie Miles Boykin (WR-107) if he eventually leapfrogs Snead or Moore—are worth flyers with streaming potential. In 10-team leagues, none of them are.
At TE, Mark Andrews was surprisingly effective last year, finishing 17th among fantasy tight ends. The third-round rookie stepped past first-round rookie Hayden Hurst, whose career launch was hindered by injuries. Now the job is Andrews’ to lose. His TE-23 ADP suggests a comparable split with Hurst (TE-32) this season. I’m not so sure, and I also don’t think it will matter. 2-3 times a decade we see TE pairings thrive together. There’s no way it’s happening in Baltimore. Steer clear of both unless one gets seriously hurt this preseason.