Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Mitch Trubisky a top-16 QB?
2. Will David Montgomery run away with the starting RB job?
3. Can Tarik Cohen continue to be a weekly fantasy starter?
4. Will Anthony Miller close the gap with Allen Robinson?
5. Is Trey Burton a top-10 TE?
I gave the Bears flack two summers ago for giving up two third-round picks and one fourth-round pick to move up one spot—yes, one spot—to snag Mitch Trubisky with the #2 overall selection. Then he suffered through a forgettable rookie campaign.
Then early last season I realized my critique wasn’t entirely fair. After all, in 2017 he was throwing to Kendall Wright (91 targets), Josh Bellamy (46), Dontrelle Inman (40), Zach Miller (35), Dion Sims (29), Daniel Brown (20), Deonte Thompson (18), Markus Wheaton (17), Tre McBride (15), Adam Shaheen (14), Tanner Gentry (6), and Kevin White (4). You get my point.
I started pushing him harder early last season as a cheap DFS play and solid streaming option because of improved offensive weapons and impressive mobility (a little over 20% of his fantasy points came on the ground). In the end he was fantasy’s 15th best QB despite missing two games. This summer his QB-17 ADP suggests more of the same, though presumably with guys behind him in 2018 (Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, and Carson Wentz, for example) leapfrogging him in 2019. I’m fairly comfortable drafting him where he is, though his ceiling this season arguably is lower than most top-20 options.
The Bears’ RB situation is a bit scattershot at the moment. People are bullish about rookie David Montgomery (RB-24 ADP). If you’re drafting this month, I think he’s too big a risk at that spot, which is reserved for guys who can close to guarantee 200+ touches and 5-6 touchdowns. With Mike Davis (RB-54) likely in the mix, Tarik Cohen (RB-27) definitely in the mix, and perhaps rookie Kerrith Whyte (unranked) getting some looks, Montgomery is no lock to earn a majority of backfield touches Week 1. Is he a decent bet? Sure. But we’re still a ways away from seeing how he and the others stack up in August.
Allen Robinson’s first season in Chicago wasn’t exactly a “success.” He missed three games and finished 40th among fantasy wideouts. You’ve heard me warn against ARob many times on this page since July 14, 2016, when he was the eighth WR coming off the board after his stunning 80/1,400/14 season. Many variables factored into his 2015 breakout, and as I warned starting in 2016, those variables haven’t come close to reconnecting since then. He’s simply a good NFL receiver, not a great one. His WR-30 ADP is his first realistic projection in four years. Meanwhile, Anthony Miller (WR-53) has room to grow as Trubisky’s #2 WR option. Likewise, Taylor Gabriel (WR-90) is undervalued, though you wouldn’t want to start him unless Robinson or Miller gets hurt. And Cordarrelle Patterson (WR-133) will do what most ex-Patriots do when they leave New England: regress. Not that his 2018 effort was that memorable. But if you want to take a chance on an undraftable Chicago wideout, go with rookie Riley Ridley (WR-127) in case injuries force him to step into the starting lineup.
As for tight end, Trey Burton surprisingly was the #8 fantasy TE despite frustrating managers throughout the second half of the season. I like him at his generous TE-15 ADP. He was the fifth highest scoring TE inside the red zone last year and is a good bet for 6-7 touchdowns this year.