Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Joe Flacco hold off Drew Lock, and does it matter?
2. Is Phillip Lindsay an RB2?
3. Will Emmanuel Sanders outperform his WR teammates?
4. Can Courtland Sutton be a reliable WR4+?
5. Will Noah Fant be a top-14 TE?
The Broncos have thrown only 77 TD passes in the past four seasons: 19 three times and 20 once. Their search for stability at QB continues with the acquisition of Joe Flacco, who GM John Elway said recently is “just getting into his prime.” Um, not quite.
Now maybe I’m coming down too hard on Flacco. But right or wrong, I’ve been consistent over the years in evaluating his on-the-field value: If not for his (team’s) Super Bowl win, Flacco never would have earned close to his $125 million contract, and he probably would have been benched years ago. Owning an awful career 6.7 yards per pass attempt and uber-pedestrian 84.1 QB rating (he’s barely exceeded 90 only twice in 11 seasons), Flacco has always been overrated in my book. And now in what could be his final season as an NFL starter, the QB-30 ADP veteran will attempt to hold off second-round rookie Drew Lock (QB-35). For his part, Lock could be another Paxton Lynch, or he could shine (relatively speaking) and finally give Denver the post-Peyton Manning QB they’ve craved. Regardless, I’m steering clear of both guys in two-QB leagues.
Some of you anticipated Phillip Lindsay’s ascension last season. Admittedly, I didn’t until it was too late. Undrafted in 2018--and then heavily recruited by multiple teams the moment the draft ended--Lindsay catapulted from the #3 spot on Denver's depth chart to the clear-cut #1 virtually out of the gate. This summer his RB ADP is 21, which admittedly makes me nervous. Royce Freeman (RB-40) isn't going anywhere, the aerial attack isn't any better, and Lindsay led the league in yards before contact per attempt. In other words, things have to break just right for Lindsay to replicate last year's high-RB2 numbers. I wouldn't reach for him, if you do draft him, make sure you grab Freeman, who averaged a little over 10 touches a game and is one of the better handcuffs to roster.
After back-to-back seasons cut short by injuries, the 32-year-old Emmanuel Sanders (WR-48 ADP) isn’t the sure-fire weekly starter he was in his late 20’s. He’s working his way back from a torn Achilles last December. A Week 1 return is quite possible, but not yet definitive. Considering who will be throwing to him, I’d feel comfortable reaching for Sanders with 40-42 WRs off the board, but no sooner. Courtland Sutton (WR-41) and DaeSean Hamilton (WR-58) looked good as rookies and will enter 2019 with more promise than their quarterback(s) can deliver. So much hinges on Sanders’ health, whether Flacco proves me wrong, and whether Tim Patrick (WR-180) rides the bench (Patrick looked fantastic after Sanders got hurt). Kelvin McKnight or rookie Juwann Winfree could become streamable in December if injuries decimate the starters.
Oh, and one more receiving corps variable is rookie Noah Fant (TE-19), an immediate-impact talent who assuredly the Broncos will underutilize. Really, can anyone imagine Flacco or Lock getting the most out of Sanders, Sutton, Hamilton, and Fant? Using simple math, we can imagine one of them exceeding ADP expectations.