Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Nick Foles a top-20 QB?
2. Can Leonard Fournette be a reliable RB1?
3. Can Marqise Lee be a WR4 again?
4. Will any other wideout be a WR4+?
5. Is any TE draftable?
Somehow Nick Foles earned a four-year contract in March with $50 million guaranteed—the 14th highest guaranteed payout for NFL quarterbacks currently on the books. Since his 2013 breakout season (27/2 TD/INT ratio), he’s gone from Philly to St. Louis to Kansas City, then back to Philly, and now to Jacksonville. He’s become better known for postseason heroics than for exceptional regular season quarterbacking. His 12/5 TD/INT mark in seven full games for the Eagles these past two seasons is one yellow flag. Consider that eight of those scores came in two games against two bottom-5 pass defenses (the Texans last year and the Giants the year before). His other five contests produced five TDs and five interceptions.
Sometimes it’s not fair to parse statistics. Fantasy success is fantasy success. He earned those two four-TD games. But here’s where ADP makes sense: he’s currently the 25th QB coming off the board. Surely he’ll be better than Blake Bortles, right? Well, if he is, he won’t be $50 million better.
Leonard Fournette (RB-13) took a couple steps back last season after a deceptively mediocre (through high volume) rookie campaign in 2017. In that first season, seven of his nine scores came from inside the five-yard line, with four getting punched in from the 1. Then in 2018 he battled injuries and an awful 3.3 YPC, followed by an arrest after driving with a suspended license. And all five of his rushing TDs came from inside the five-yard line, with three coming from the 1. This year he’s the quintessential boom-bust running back. If he stays healthy and earns 300+ touches, he’ll be a top-6 option. More likely than not, he’ll frustrate fantasy managers with ailments and inconsistencies. Backing him up will be the barely competent Alfred Blue (RB-80, career 3.6 YPC), intriguing rookie Ryquell Armstead (RB-64), and the surprisingly-still-young Thomas Rawls (RB-205, who’s been unwatchable since his 2015 breakout). Expect Fournette to be the unquestioned bellcow to start the year, but if sidelined, he's not guaranteed to keep the bellcow role once he returns.
The Jags’ top four receivers are relatively set. Marqise Lee is the highest-upside steal with a WR-81 ADP. The highly capable former second rounder missed all of last season, but is a good bet for top-45 production assuming he enters September healthy. Let’s remember he was the #42 fantasy wideout in 2016 playing alongside Allen Robinson, and was #40 in 2017 despite missing a couple games. Dede Westbrook (WR-42) is priced about right, though his eight drops and two lost fumbles last year are a bit concerning. Keelan Cole (WR-88) will be essentially undraftable unless Lee or Westbrook gets hurt. And D.J. Chark (WR-93) is the wild card. I can see him finishing the year anywhere from fourth to first on the depth chart. He’s a fantastic final-round pick in best ball and is a name to watch on waivers all season.
Finally, Geoff Swaim (TE-49) and rookie Josh Oliver (TE-36) will compete for relevance at tight end. If Swaim somehow wins the job, ignore him. If Oliver wins it, he’ll be a far better dynasty prospect than a Week 1 starter. The talent is there, but he’s got an uphill battle for relevance in year 1.