Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Cam Newton a top-10 QB?
2. Will D.J. Moore be a top-25 WR?
3. Can Curtis Samuel be a WR4+?
4. Are any other wideouts draftable?
5. Can Greg Olsen be a TE1?
My 2018 preseason prediction that Cam Newton would be fantasy’s #1 QB initially was met with support, cynicism, or outrage. After 12 weeks, Cam was sitting at #3 behind Pat Mahomes and Drew Brees. The following game he hurt his shoulder—or at least, that’s when his shoulder injury became publicly known. After laboring through two more games with deteriorating production, the Panthers shut him down, and he went under the knife in January for the second time in three years—both times for his throwing shoulder.
I still believe in Cam’s elite potential. Devin Funchess, Curtis Samuel, Jarius Wright, Torrey Smith, and Ian Thomas accounted for over 70% of his targets last year. On most teams, none of these guys would be starters. Yet because of injuries and limited options, they had to step up, and Cam made the most of what he had.
And so today he owns a QB-9 ADP, despite being a top-3 fantasy QB in four of the past eight seasons (and #4 in another). Had he remained healthy last season, he’d be in the top-4 conversation. He’s undervalued plain and simple. While he carries more re-injury risk than the average QB, I’d draft him a round early because of his consistently proven upside.
Christian McCaffrey proved me very wrong in 2018. I could not conceive of him amassing 300+ touches, or becoming a lethally efficient playmaker. His 5.0 YPC on 219 carries and 107 receptions . . . well, what can you say. Carolina had never had a 1,000-yard rusher in the Cam Newton era. Now CMC (RB-2 ADP) will be one of the top three players taken in nearly every draft. And keep an eye on the handcuff battle, with veteran Cameron Artis-Payne currently better positioned than the less predictable Elijah Hood and Jordan Scarlett.
D.J. Moore enters 2019 as arguably Cam’s best wideout option since Kelvin Benjamin circa 2014. And unlike that version of Benjamin, Moore will still be employable in five years. His WR-23 ADP suggests a roughly 70/1,000/5 output, which is entirely realistic. And I’d bet he’ll be a shade better, mostly because of who’s playing behind him. Only Curtis Samuel (WR-49) has weekly streaming potential, while a half-dozen other guys will compete for 3-4 looks a game: Torrey Smith, Jarius Wright, Chris Hogan, Aldrick Robinson, Terry Godwin, and Rashad Ross. None are worth drafting barring preseason injuries to Moore or Samuel.
Is this the end of the line for Greg Olsen? After not missing a game for nine seasons, he’s now missed 16 in his last two campaigns. The 34-year-old appears to be recovered, but for how long? His TE-18 ADP suggests “not very long.” But I’ll bite: Gimme Olsen with last pick of a 12-team draft. I like his odds of returning top-14 production nearly every week he’s healthy. And his upside should be obvious: He scored the 10th most TE fantasy points inside the red zone last year—despite sitting seven games. And if he gets knocked out again, the Panthers won’t miss a beat with Ian Thomas, who looked NFL-ready when forced to start last December.