Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Jimmy Garoppolo a top-16 QB?
2. Who will lead the backfield?
3. Will Dante Pettis be a top-30 WR?
4. Can Deebo Samuel be a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Will any other WR be fantasy relevant?
Let me start by stating what should be obvious: average draft position is often a ridiculous measurement of a player’s potential. Yet nearly every online draft room automatically ranks players based on ADP. I’ve been in these rooms dozens of times in real drafts and hundreds of times in mocks. It’s highly unusual for managers to deviate too far from group think—from drafting someone “way too early.” So if you believe Player A with a QB-14 ADP is likely to finish in the top 8, and you grab him as the 10th QB off the board, you’ve won that pick. You’ve used ADP to your advantage by outsmarting the room and capitalizing on a bargain.
Last summer Jimmy Garoppolo was viewed far and wide as a can’t-miss QB1. But as I shared too many times to count, his QB-9 ADP was ridiculous. We’ll never know how he would have fared had he not torn his ACL. But he averaged only 16 fantasy points in each of his three contests, which over 16 games would have placed him 16th among fantasy QBs.
Heading into 2019, his ADP has swung in the other direction—to 21st among all QBs. Plainly speaking, it’s a stupid mass assessment of a player whose floor is in the top 16-18, and whose ceiling is in the top 8-10. Much has changed since last year, principally the development of 2018 rookie Dante Pettis, the transformation of the previously statistically muted George Kittle, the departure of the talent-challenged Pierre Garcon, and less reliance on the overutilized Kendrick Bourne. Assuming a full recovery this summer, Garoppolo will be primed for a strong season. Ignore ADPs when they’re meaningless.
The Niners have a glut of running backs, on par with drafting five QBs in a one-QB fantasy league. The high-priced Jerick McKinnon (RB-41) is back after missing all of 2018 with a torn ACL. The dirt cheap Matt Breida (RB-52) is coming off a 180-touch season while averaging an impressive 5.3 YPC. Tevin Coleman (RB-30) was signed this offseason after a career year in Atlanta, and now consistently is the first San Francisco RB getting drafted. Raheem Mostert (RB-216) was re-signed to a three-year deal in March. And capable 2018 rookie contributor Jeff Wilson (RB-203) might be cut.
I can’t begin to predict which RB will break out of the pack. Clearly the first three will serve as the initial core, but if McKinnon looks good to go in August, I’m betting the team trades Breida to an RB-needy team. What’s the point of keeping a guy who’s shown that much talent on the bench? There’s no conceivable way he’s getting more than five touches a game if McKinnon and Coleman are healthy. So sit back, stay tuned, and let’s see how this shakes out.
Fantasy managers hate muddled depth charts, and the Niners’ receiving corps is one of the toughest to figure out. Dante Pettis (WR-33 ADP) should be the clear-cut #1, and his talent is unquestioned. My main concern is his low usage last year despite being the de facto #1 for much of his rookie campaign. He averaged six targets per game in his seven starts, and while he often made the most of them, that’s not sustainable on a team with a loaded backfield and more healthy, capable wideouts. He’ll need to become an offensive focal point to maintain reliable WR3+ production. Rookie Deebo Samuel (WR-60) will far exceed expectations if he can outrun a troubling injury history, and is absolutely worth drafting as a WR4 with upside. The vastly undervalued Marquise Goodwin (WR-67) will be a WR5+ if he starts, though nothing’s guaranteed this early. The remaining guys—Jalen Hurd, Richie James, Trent Taylor, and Kendrick Bourne—remind us that the Niners have too many young receivers; Bourne, Hurd, James, Pettis, and Samuel are all 23. That’s downright insane, and it means the middle part of the depth chart could shift significantly by August.
George Kittle (TE-3) is freakin’ good. My only knock on him heading into this season is that he won’t match his 136 looks from last season. He was targeted on 26% of all pass attempts. That was higher than Travis Kelce. That was even higher than Antonio Brown. The top-heavy TE position makes Kittle valuable, but let’s not assume 2018 is his new baseline.