Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Sam Darnold be a reliable QB2+?
2. Can Le’Veon Bell return to elite status?
3. Will Robby Anderson be a weekly fantasy starter?
4. Can Jamison Crowder return to fantasy relevance?
5. Is Chris Herndon a top-14 TE?
After suffering through 5-11 seasons in 2016 and 2017, the Jets somehow did even worse in 2018: fewer wins, worse point differential, fewer yards per game, fewer rushing yards per carry, and so on. But hey, at least they have Sam Darnold, last year’s #3 overall pick, who showed flashes at times, but who also looked a lot like a rookie. Despite playing the same number of games, he finished with fewer fantasy points than Blake Bortles and was worse on a per-game basis than undrafted QB Nick Mullens.
But one interesting split jumps out at me: At home Darnold averaged 18.3 fantasy points per contest compared to only 8.4 on the road. That’s an insane difference, and he played in only six home games. In other words, if he had matched those home/away averages in those three games he didn’t play, he would have scored another 45 fantasy points—good for 20th among all fantasy QBs (just ahead of Matthew Stafford). Despite his QB-24 ADP, consider Darnold a top-20 candidate this year with surprising top-14 potential (yes, I’m serious) thanks to an underrated rookie year and better all-around weapons. In other words, if you’re in a two-QB league, he’s an absolute must-draft after 16 QBs are off the board.
Some players, like Kirk Cousins 2-3 years ago, gamble on themselves by playing. Le’Veon Bell gambled on himself by sitting. And it worked, as the Jets overpaid by making him the second-highest-paid RB with $35 million guaranteed. The fear here is that James Conner never projected to be on par with someone like Bell, yet he looked Bell-like for much of last season in Pittsburgh. And no, “Bell-like” is not hyperbole. Projecting his 13-game season over 16 games, Conner was on pace for 1,723 total and 16 touchdowns on 4.53 yards per carry on a little under 21 touches per game. Bell’s numbers were slightly better on average, but his YPC was lower, and he needed a lot more touches to achieve those numbers (27.5 per game in his last two “playing” seasons).
So is Bell one of the top fantasy running backs? Or did he benefit largely from Pittsburgh’s system? This year we’ll find out. I’m content to let an opponent draft him at his RB-7 ADP. Not including last year, Bell’s missed 18 games in five seasons. He’ll also run behind an offensive line that likely will be a step down from what he was accustomed to in Pittsburgh. On the plus side, he’ll be one of the league’s few contenders for 300+ touches, as guys like Elijah McGuire, Trenton Cannon, and Bilal Powell don’t pose any threat. This gives Bell a terrific floor (barring injury or suspension), but not the ceiling first-round drafters are expecting. Meanwhile, the perennially overrated Ty Montgomery (I’ve been consistent on this for years, despite experts insisting otherwise) is priced right at his RB-92 ADP unless he’s somehow expected to earn more than 3-4 touches a game.
Robby Anderson (WR-31 ADP) can help you win your league. He can also fade into the shadows. He’s a throwback DeSean Jackson (fantasy-wise) who’s playing for a long-term contract. Don’t let him slide past his ADP. Meanwhile, Quincy Enunwa looked like Darnold’s #1 receiver last September, reeling in 21 balls on 36 targets in the first four games. Then it all went south as Anderson took over the lead-dog role. If you believe in Darnold as I do, then believe Enunwa is much better than his WR-84 ADP. And Jamison Crowder (WR-69) is the wild card; the Jets’ “big” offseason addition at wideout disappointed a lot of fantasy managers last season. But keep in mind he missed nearly half the season, and the QB situation was sub-par at best. I’m betting Darnold will be able to feed at least two of the three starting WRs on a fairly consistent basis. There’s value here if we don’t guess wrong.
Finally, while the surprising Chris Herndon helped plenty of deep-leaguers last year, he’s pretty risky this year as a TE1, as he could realistically start the year as the #5 offensive option. He’s also facing a likely suspension after last summer’s DUI / car crash. While I suppose he could build off of last season’s production if things break right, if his TE-16 ADP creeps into the top 12, I’d steer clear.