Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Jameis Winston be a top-12 QB?
2. Will Ronald Jones be a fantasy starter?
3. Is Peyton Barber draftable?
4. Can Chris Godwin build on his 2018 breakout?
5. Is O.J. Howard a near-elite TE?
Last year I made a lot of noise about Tampa Bay mistakenly starting Jameis Winston over Ryan Fitzpatrick. I was proven mostly wrong, as Fitz—who mostly dominated offensively in his first five complete starts (17/6 TD/INT ratio)—resoundingly flopped against the middling Redskins and sub-par Giants. His collapse gave way to Jameis Winston’s second stint of the season as the Bucs’ “franchise” QB, and he finished strong enough to silence most doubters.
Yet I remain skeptical long term in the former #1 overall draft pick, who will be a free agent after the season. Winston has all the weapons needed to meet or exceed his QB-13 ADP. Yet he’s fallen short of near-universal expectations year after year. With no serious backup to compete against, Winston won’t be pulled like he was last year. But although he’ll earn a few 20+ points outings, he’ll also net plenty of frustrating under-14-point outings.
Peyton Barber’s standing as the 31st highest scoring fantasy RB last year has no bearing on his 2019 outlook. He played all 16 games, earned a personal-best 254 touches—more than double his previous high—and collected only 3.7 yards per carry (down from 3.9 in 2017 and 4.1 in 2016). Simply put, Barber topped out in 2018 and is a risky bet even at his RB-48 ADP. Instead, Ronald Jones has the best shot at RB2/3 relevance. A second-round pick in 2018, Jones profiles more like Jordan Howard in the passing game (i.e. not much value there), but he’s loaded with untapped potential on the ground. This is a guy who forced 58 missed tackles in college in 2017—second most in the nation among draft-eligible RBs—while also attempting an excessive 261 carries in 13 contests. A letdown could be expected. So can a rebound. He’s a steal at his current RB-38 price.
On June 21 last year I wrote the following in my Bucs preview: “Experts inconceivably list DJax as the 49th best WR, while Godwin is buried at 68th. They're wrong: Godwin (inconceivably owning a WR-84 ADP) likely will outperform DJax.” By season’s end, Godwin was the 27th highest scoring WR, while the perennially injury-prone DeSean Jackson was 42nd. As I stated and reiterated throughout the summer and season, Godwin was and is the real deal. However, with Winston at the helm, and with what I expect will be a better running game, it’s tough to envision both Godwin (WR-21) and Mike Evans (WR-7) meeting expectations. Keep in mind this team led the NFL in passing yards last year; they’re not likely to improve on that. Meanwhile, rookie sixth rounder Scott Miller, bust Breshad Perriman, and the little-known Anthony Johnson will compete for #3 duties. Can’t predict who will win this battle, but assuredly Perriman will lose it.
O.J. Howard took a sizable leap in Year 2 before getting knocked out for the season in Week 11. On pace for a 904/8 season despite sharing the load with three highly engaged wideouts and veteran TE Cameron Brate, Howard is deserving of his TE-4 ADP, while Brate (TE-35) is one of the few NFL backup TEs worth monitoring, as he’d become a boom-bust TE1 if Howard were sidelined.