Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Marcus Mariota return to fantasy relevance?
2. Is Derrick Henry a top-15 RB?
3. Is Corey Davis a top-25 WR?
4. Will any other wideout be fantasy relevant?
5. Will Jonnu Smith, mileage, and/or age make Delanie Walker fantasy irrelevant?
And so it’s come to this: 2015’s can’t-miss #2 overall draft pick is in danger of losing his starting job. Marcus Mariota produced six four-TD games in his first two seasons. In years 3 and 4 he’s had only two three-TD games (and zero 4+). We can blame a receiving corps anchored in 2017 by Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews and not much else, and in 2018 by Corey Davis and not much else. We can blame his durability issues. We can even blame Tennessee’s conservative offensive game plan; they’re last in the NFL in combined pass attempts these past three seasons (1,437).
The addition of Ryan Tannehill is an unlikely wake-up call, as he’s basically an older version of Mariota who’s simply benefited from having a better receiving corps. Mariota’s QB-27 ADP suggests he’s no lock to finish the season under center. I say he’ll stay there unless he’s physically unable to compete. Both QBs will be free agents after the season. But the Titans didn’t give up much for Tannehill (a fourth and seventh rounder while getting a sixth in return), and the soon-to-be 31-year-old has already peaked. Mariota’s 25 and still has time to get back on track. As long as he’s healthy (surely a sizable “if”), Mariota will lead this offense all season. He's a two-QB-league steal.
After two seasons of under-utilization and an awful first seven weeks to 2018 in which he scored only once on a measly 3.25 YPC, Derrick Henry saved his best for the fantasy playoffs, accumulating 492 rushing yards and seven scores in weeks 14-16. Was this stretch a fluke? No. Although he’s a minimal passing-game threat, Henry’s ground-game role has grown in each NFL season, and he should comfortably top last year’s 215 rushing attempts. Given his RB-20 ADP, I’d grab him a bit early. Meanwhile, as expected, Dion Lewis took a step back after leaving the comforts of New England; his 3.3 YPC was more than one yard below his career average, and he scored only once through the air on 59 catches. His RB-46 ADP is about right, though in shallow and mid-sized leagues I’d much rather take an RB-60 or -70 handcuff with higher upside.
Corey Davis (WR-33 ADP) inexplicably is getting drafted below where he finished last season (#28 fantasy WR). He’s a sure-fire bargain as a likely top-25 wideout. Rookie A.J. Brown (WR-70) is an even bigger bargain, though we need to see more out of him this summer before determining the extent. If I had to guess, I’d say he’s a comfortable bet for top-55 production and a possible weekly WR4/5 if Mariota takes a step forward. Meanwhile, Adam Humphries (WR-71) and Tajae Sharpe (unranked) could be battling it out for the #3 job. Neither is on my radar as the likely #5 offensive weapon in a middling-at-best passing game. And one or two dominoes need to fall for Taywan Taylor (WR-134) to make fantasy noise.
Finally, Delanie Walker was knocked out for the season with an ankle injury in Week 1 last year. One of the most durable and productive tight ends of the previous five seasons, Walker will be 35 in August. His TE-15 ADP is too bold for me, particularly with Jonnu Smith (TE-40) waiting in the wings. When Walker went down, I was repeatedly and aggressively high on Smith, a second-year pro with TE1 potential. I was painfully wrong for the first half of the season. Then he started getting more looks—not as many as Walker would get, but enough to earn fantasy relevance in weeks 9, 10, 11, and 12. Then in Week 14 he went down with a season-ending knee injury. He and Walker are trying to get healthy for the start of this season. Beyond this season, I prefer Smith. The question is whether Walker still has one more good year in him. I’m betting against it.