Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Kyler Murray a top-12 QB?
2. Will David Johnson come close to returning to his 2016 breakout form?
3. Will Christian Kirk overtake Larry Fitzgerald for #1 WR honors?
4. Can Andy Isabella be fantasy relevant?
5. Is Ricky Seals-Jones draftable in deep leagues?
The night after Kyler Murray received the Heisman Trophy last December, his MLB uber-agent Scott Boras announced his client’s football playing days were over: “That [competing in the NFL] is not a determination to make. It's already done." The following month Murray entered the NFL draft, and in April he was the first overall pick. Goodbye baseball (at least for now). And hello massive NFL hype.
As with many high-priced rookies, Murray’s upside is unquestioned. He’s a dual threat with fantastic mobility and a strong arm. He’s had a deep bond with head coach Kliff Kingsbury for seven years. And he enters an offense anchored by talented veterans and exciting young talents. But his QB-12 ADP concerns me. First, it’s unusual for rookie QBs—even those with Murray’s potential—to immediately become every-week fantasy starters. Second, I continue to get hung up by his size—or rather, his alleged size. Listed at 5’ 10”, he made waves last month at a photo shoot with other rookies, where he looked a couple inches shorter than Marquise Brown. The problem is that Brown’s listed as 5’ 9”.
His size doesn’t matter if you believe the NFL’s longstanding hesitation about sub-6-foot quarterbacks is bunk. But I believe that hesitation has had merit. Plenty of short QBs who shined in college have faced difficulty adjusting their game at the professional level. In fact, it’s hard to identify any QB 5’10” or under who shined at the professional level (one notable exception: Doug Flutie’s USFL career, which reinforces the point).
I’m also concerned that Murray’s aggressive style of play could make him more injury prone than the average quarterback. And then there’s the question of whether someone who was apparently committed to a baseball career seven months ago is still 100% focused on football . . . or if at some point this season he’ll second-guess his decision.
All told, Murray’s success is integral to the rest of the offense’s success. If Brett Hundley has to start games and you’re hoping David Johnson can help carry you to a title . . . well, as we all know, fantasy fortunes can turn on a dime. And Murray’s not the sure thing many claim him to be.
Speaking of Johnson, believe it or not he’ll be 28 in December. Last July I wrote about being “increasingly skeptical of Johnson's RB-4 ADP and of experts' universal optimism surrounding him.” While most people expected him to at least come close to replicating his 2016 breakout campaign, I pointed out that he averaged only 3.7 YPC in his final 10 games of 2016—that he dominated more because of usage (nearly 400 touches) than effectiveness. 15 of his 20 scores started inside the 4-yard line. He was the top RB in red-zone fantasy points. Put plainly and bluntly, his “greatness” was overstated. Last season he was 14th in red-zone RB fantasy points. He parlayed 258 carries—third most in the league—into the 9th most RB fantasy points overall. He was used less consistently in the passing game (50 receptions vs. 80 in 2016) and—here’s the most notable part—netted only 3.6 YPC. In other words, in his last 27 games Johnson has averaged only about 3.6 YPC. As with most running backs, it’s not just his fault. But his RB-6 ADP makes the same mistake as last summer’s RB-4 ADP: it assumes 2016 is close to his norm. It doesn’t consider that, aside from those first six games, he’s been a sub-par NFL rusher across nearly two full seasons.
Elsewhere in the backfield, I prematurely hyped rookie Chase Edmonds last year, but I’m taking the bait again this year, particularly with his friendly RB-69 ADP. He might get more looks this season even with Johnson on the field, and he’ll catapult into the RB2/3 conversation if Johnson goes down as a likely 15+ touch back.
At WR, Larry Fitzgerald followed up three impressive post-prime seasons with a relative dud last year, yet he still finished 25th among WR fantasy scorers. His WR-41 ADP makes him a soft buy candidate. Christian Kirk (WR-35) is picking up more love as the heir to Fitz’s throne. While it could happen this year, I’m currently neutral on his breakout potential, at least until I see more from rookie Andy Isabella (WR-58), who led all college receivers last year with 1,698 yards, and who ran an incredible 4.31 40-yard dash at the combine. He’s getting knocked for small hands. By August we’ll know if he can be another, say, John Brown, or if Kirk and Fitz will carry a large majority of the load at wideout. If Isabella busts, expect Hakeem Butler (WR-77), KeeSean Johnson (WR-121), Kevin White (WR-141), and Chad Williams (unranked) to compete for sporadic relevance.
At TE, it’s Ricky Seals-Jones’ job to lose. His TE-36 ADP is a little pessimistic; I like him in the top 24-26, though an injury to Fitz or Kirk likely would propel him into the top 20, with a chance at streamability.