Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Josh Allen a top-20 QB?
2. Who will be the most productive RB, and will any be weekly starters?
3. Will John Brown be the highest-scoring WR?
4. Are any other wideouts draftable?
5. Can Dawson Knox be a streaming TE?
From a fantasy perspective, there were two Josh Allens last season: the rookie who struggled with accuracy in his first six NFL starts, and the rookie who struggled with accuracy in his next six NFL starts—while accumulating the second most QB fantasy points in the league. That’s right: the little-rostered Josh Allen, equipped with arguably the NFL’s worst collection of receivers, dominated fantasy-wise Weeks 12-17, thanks almost entirely to averaging 79 rushing yards on nine carries (along with five total rushing TDs). Comparable dual threat Lamar Jackson (QB-21 ADP) earns more hype, but Allen (QB-22 ADP) deserves more love. Allen had 12 rushing scores on 234 carries in his final two years at Wyoming, so this part of his game is here to stay. And a slightly improved receiving corps will help him further. He’ll be an absolute steal in two-QB leagues.
If you read my columns last summer, you knew how I repeatedly felt about the vastly overrated LeSean McCoy (RB-16 ADP). This year the soon-to-be 31-year-old’s mileage and diminishing ability aren’t fooling most people, as his positional ADP is down to 40. That’s still too generous. Meanwhile, the 36-year-old Frank Gore (RB-85) is technically the better bargain, though these days he has to be viewed as 50-50 to remain relevant into December. Before his shockingly efficient (4.6 YPC) 2018 campaign, Gore endured three consecutive pedestrian seasons in Indy. His upside this year is in the RB5/6 range. T.J. Yeldon (RB-65) is the most talented of the three at this stage and fared well last year while Leonard Fournette was sidelined, but Buffalo probably will limit him to pass-catching-specialist duties--a big mistake from my perspective, since Yeldon could do damage with 12-15 touches per game. And rookie Devin Singletary (RB-49) is a tough one to figure out this early in his rookie campaign, though it’s easy to see this non-playoff team leaning on him during the fantasy playoffs. That makes Singletary the best late-season stash of the quartet, and Yeldon the highest-floor PPR option.
As some of you might remember, my problem with John Brown early last season was that Baltimore’s weak pass attack couldn’t sustain his early WR2/3 numbers. Those who sold high (as I consistently urged on this page) got the last laugh, as he was almost completely unplayable after Week 4, in part due to defensive adjustments and in part due to a passer downgrade at QB. Now he’s in Buffalo, where Josh Allen represents at least a marginal upgrade over Jackson, and the #1 WR job is up for grabs. His WR-67 ADP makes him a buy target. 2018 late-season breakout Robert Foster (WR-61) might be his stiffest competition; the Alabama product would be a weekly streamer if Brown gets hurt. Meanwhile, Cole Beasley (WR-90) will earn $29 million the next four years to catch, I’d guess, about 100 balls. 2016 will remain the apex of his career. And Zay Jones (WR-66) is on the cusp of bust status; the former second-rounder has caught only 83 of 176 career passes (47%). A big chunk of his production last year came in the red zone. With more weapons this season, the Bills simply won’t utilize him as often.
At TE, Buffalo threw away $9 million in guaranteed money on Tyler Kroft, who missed most of 2018 with a broken foot, and then he broke his foot again last month. Third-round rookie Dawson Knox (TE-43) is the tight end to watch on this squad, though only in very deep leagues; if he wins the job in August, he could hold off Kroft for good even when the veteran returns, giving him a top 16-20 ceiling on par with the recently departed Charles Clay.